John Deni, of the Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, speculated in Sunday’s Wall Street Journal about whether a coup to overthrow Russian President Vladimir Putin would improve much. He opened with

Some Western observers hope Vladimir Putin will be overthrown in a coup. While the likelihood of such an event is debatable, one thing is certain: if Mr Putin were removed in a coup, whoever replaces him would face the same domestic political incentives and disincentives, which would likely lead to a continuation of Russia’s confrontational approach to the West.

He concluded with

So although a coup in Moscow could bring an end to Russia’s disastrous war in Ukraine, a new ruler or regime would face the same domestic political incentives and would likely end up behaving in similar ways.

Were a coup to bring that end to Ukraine’s misery, that alone would make the coup worth the cost.

Beyond that, though, a new Russian government might be able to recognize that no one in the West has any designs on Russia, no one in the West is any security threat to Russia. That lack stems from a single incontrovertible fact that plays on what Adam Smith termed the invisible hand: our own self-interest.

Russia has absolutely nothing that anyone in the West wants that can’t be gotten far more cheaply and far more beneficially to us in the West—and by the way, for the Russian people, too—through free and open trade.

It’s a long shot that a replacement crop of Russians at the top of that government would recognize that, but that replacement crop is unlikely to be worse than the Putin-led syndicate that is, empirically, bent on war and conquest.

The Wall Street Journal‘s editors are fretting about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and that war-of-Putin-choice’s closing approach to NATO territory. They conclude their worry beads fingering with this bit:

No one wants a broader war. But as Russia escalates, Mr Biden and NATO had better be prepared to fight one. A reckless or desperate Mr Putin may give them no choice.

Putin is far from reckless or desperate, except under the foolish Western assumptions that Putin thinks like we do, has the same pain points we have, has the same value sets we have. Putin, on the contrary, has been quite clear and steadfast all along. He intends to reconstitute Russia’s former USSR empire, complete with regaining control over the outer, occupied nations, like Russia-controlled Poland and German Democratic Republic, and others. Those nations, along with so many of the ex-SSRs, are now members of NATO.

Putin’s push into NATO will come in accordance with his goals, and there’s no maybe to it. Western governments hide their heads in the Irrational Putin sand at their—and us citizens’—peril.

Highly touted Russia expert Rebekah Koffler ridiculed the idea of a no-fly zone being erected over Ukraine. Her disdain is not at all centered on practicalities—basing, logistics, etc—but on fear of war with Russia.

The Hill: Foreign policy experts call for ‘limited no-fly zone’ over Ukraine
Same “experts” who got UKR-RUS into this conflict in the first place, by promoting foolish ideas, not grounded in reality.
Now dragging us into WWIII.

And

If the “experts” believe a no-fly zone will make Putin stand down, they are dumb.
If they are running a PSYOP on Putin, it will have the opposite effect. Putin doesn’t think like an American. He thinks like a Russian.
P will interpret the move as escalatory, not de-escalatory.

Koffler’s underlying thesis that Putin doesn’t think like us is right. But in her terror of confronting Putin with a no-fly zone over Ukraine, she wants us to back away from a Putin threat of war against us. Talk about “dumb as a Siberian shoe….”

Her position raises the question: what are her recognition keys for when it is…appropriate…for us to stop backing away from Putin and instead to stand and confront him?

This “Russia expert” is carefully silent on matter. Maybe she’s not dumb as a Siberian shoe…. Maybe it’s more that As a lamb she sitteth meke and stille, as leef on lynde.