Foreign Aid to Whom?

The United Nations’ Central Emergency Response Fund has, with Venezuelan President Nicolas Madura’s permission (recipient nations’ permissions are required for CERF funds release), sent $9.2 million in emergency humanitarian aid to…someone…in Venezuela.  The money is intended to mitigate Venezuela’s medicine and food shortage crisis which stems from the Venezuelan government’s failure to perform.

In addition, the UN’s International Children’s Emergency Fund (UNICEF) is expanding its aid for Venezuela.  UNICEF already has delivered…to someone…nearly 130 tons of medicine, health, and nutrition supplies for 350,000 women and children just since August.

The UN has not said to whom it sent these goodies, only for whom they’re intended.

Russia and Ukraine

Over the weekend, Russia has decided to block Ukraine’s access to the Sea of Azov from the Black Sea; it’s placed a cargo ship under the Kerch Strait Bridge, which Russia completed earlier this year to give it direct land access from Russia to Russian-occupied Crimea, and Russia has military helicopters orbiting above the bridge.  The Kerch Strait is a bit under 2,000 feet wide where the bridge sits.

This followed the Russian Black Sea Navy’s aggression against a Ukrainian flotilla of no military significance—a Ukrainian Navy tugboat and two Ukrainian Navy artillery ships—that was transferring from Odessa on the Ukrainian Black Sea coast to Mariupol on the Ukrainian Sea of Azov coast. The Russian ships deliberately rammed the Ukrainian tugboat, damaging the latter’s hull and engines, and then the Russians seized the three Ukrainian ships.

The question arises concerning why Russian President Vladimir Putin has chosen this naked escalation.  A number of possible answers arise, also.

One is to serve as a military demonstration of force for Ukraine’s benefit, executed to enforce Russia’s illegal “elections” in its eastern occupied Ukraine.

Another is to distract from his doings in the north: his meddling in Baltic State elections, his cyber aggressions against them, his movement of tactical nuclear weapons closer to his borders with them.

Another is to distract from renewed troubles with his second natural gas pipeline, currently under construction, that would connect Russia with Germany under the Baltic Sea.

Another is for the aggression against Ukraine to serve as a demonstration for the attention of Germany regarding that pipeline and for the attention of Moldova as the latter works to tighten its ties with NATO Europe and to resist Russia’s attempt at Ukraine-style occupation.

Another is as a domestic distraction.  Russia also is currently is deeply into a demographic crisis.   Nearly 30% of the Russian population is 55 years old or older, and that per centage is growing.  Russia’s current fertility rate—births per woman—is 1.61 against a necessary 2.01 rate just to maintain a given population level.  Russia’s current birth rate of 10.7 births/1,000 population compares badly with its current death rate of 13.4 deaths/1,000 population.  With an in-migration rate of 1.7 migrant(s)/1,000 population, that still leaves Russians dying faster than they’re being born and gaining immigrants combined.  Consistent with that, Russia’s population is shrinking—by 0.11% this year.

Russia’s per capita GDP has fallen by 3% since its nearby peak in 2013: Russians are individually poorer than they were, even with a slight increase in the current year, even as Putin spends Russian treasure on all of his foreign adventures.  Note that this shrinkage in individual prosperity is mitigated by that shrinking population—were it growing, instead, the increasing poverty would be much worse.

Or some combination of all of those distractions.

Note, though, that as of Monday, Russia seems to have lifted its Sea of Azov blockade, but it continues to hold the Ukrainian ships and crews.

Guns and Killings

This, from no less a Liberal outlet than the Chicago Tribune.  John Lott, Jr, Crime Prevention Research Center President, provided some gun-related killings statistics for the Tribune.  He began by defining what constitutes mass killings, a term too often bandied about without definition.  The FBI’s definition is what he used.

  • shootings must claim four or more lives in a public place
  • shootings must be carried out simply with the intention of killing
    • excluded are gang fight killings because they tend to be motivated by battles for drug turf
    • excluded are murders incidental to other crimes
    • excluded are politically motivated attacks, such as assassinations or killings pursuant to guerrilla conflicts

The he came to the actual data.

Of the 97 countries where we identified mass public shootings,

  • the US ranks 64th per capita in its rate of attacks of the 97 countries with mass public shootings
  • the US ranks 65th in fatalities.
  • Tightly gun-controlled European countries, such as Norway, Finland, France, Switzerland and Russia, each have 25%+ higher per capita murder rates than the US

In the interval from 1998 to 2015, there were

  • 2,354 attacks and at least 4,880 shooters outside the US
  • 53 attacks and 57 shooters in the US

The US has 4.6% of the world’s population but only 1.49% of the murders, 2.20% of the attacks, and less than 1.15% of the mass public shooters worldwide.

And: of all the mass public shootings that have occurred since 1950 98% have occurred in places where citizens are banned from having guns.

What’s missing from the research is all the mass shooting attempts that have been short-circuited or stopped altogether by citizens on scene when the incidents began—the true first responders—who had firearms on their person and so could respond inside the two-five minutes that even a talented, trained, and motivated policeman and police force will need to arrive—after the call, with its intendent delay, goes out.  Occurrences illustrated by these anecdotes.

  • a concealed handgun permit holder stopped an alleged killer who was shooting blacks at a Kroger grocery store in Louisville, KY
  • armed off duty policemen stopped a mass killer wannabe before he could get started at a Draw Mohammed contest in Dallas, TX
  • two gunmen in College Park, who herded party-goers into separate male-female groups and then compared the number of bullets they had with human targets were stopped by one partier who was able to reach his pistol, engaged the two, killing one

A Judge’s Ruling on Female Genital Mutilation

Charges related to female genital mutilation were dismissed last week against Detroit doctor Jumana Nagarwala, who has a history of performing such “surgeries.”  Federal District Judge Bernard Friedman, of the Eastern District of Michigan, ruled that Congress had overstepped its authority in passing a law banning this FGM.

Sadly, the judge was right.  That law, passed in 1996, was done under our Constitution’s Commerce Clause, which authorizes Congress to regulate interstate commerce (along with trade with foreign nations and with the Indian Tribes).

However, Friedman wrote,

That clause permits Congress to regulate activity that is commercial or economic in nature and that substantially affects interstate commerce either directly or as part of an interstate market that has such an effect. … There is nothing commercial or economic about FGM.  As despicable as this practice may be, it is essentially a criminal assault…. Nor has the government shown that FGM itself has any effect on interstate commerce or that a market exists for FGM beyond the mothers of the nine victims alleged….  There is, in short, no rational basis to conclude that FGM has any effect, to say nothing of a substantial effect, on interstate commerce.

The law as passed is plainly unconstitutional.  But why not allow the law to stand, anyway, given its attempt to bar [a]s despicable [a] practice as FGM?  Because, as Chief Justice William Howard Taft wrote 100 years ago in the Child Labor Tax Case,

The good sought in unconstitutional legislation is an insidious feature because it leads citizens and legislators of good purpose to promote it without thought of the serious breach it will make in the ark of our covenant or the harm which will come from breaking down recognized standards.

As Friedman noted, seemingly in consistence with Taft, in his 21st century opinion,

As laudable as the prohibition of a particular type of abuse of girls may be…federalism concerns deprive Congress of the power to enact this statute.

And

FGM is “local criminal activity” which, in keeping with longstanding tradition and our federal system of government, is for the states to regulate, not Congress.

Here, though, Friedman has understated the case.  This is a Federal concern, and it is within the scope of Congressional authority to address FGM.

Congress must repass this law—though why it chose the Commerce Clause as the underpinning is beyond me—and it must address Friedman’s Federalism concerns.  One obvious path is that the protection of all Americans collectively and the liberties of each American individually are the role of the Federal government; some protections cannot be left to the individual States to effect—or to choose not to effect.  This is why free speech and religion, the right to keep and bear arms, protections against excessive searches—indeed, the entirety of our Bill of Rights—are Federal concerns, with only the means of implementing them left to the States.

Certainly, there needs to be a limit on what is considered a Federal crime (or civil prohibition or requirement)—even murder is a State crime and not a Federal one, as it should be.

But surely our inalienable right to the pursuit of Happiness, which John Adams explained so eloquently carries within it the rights of personal property and of personal security, is a Federal concern, not a matter to be left, federalistically, to the States.  That property right necessarily includes the property every individual has in his own person, and that security right necessarily includes the safety of that property in person (and more generally, the safety of the person himself), especially.  This was acknowledged overtly when we fought—and won—a civil war over slavery.

It must be the case, too, that that property and that security must include control over what is done with any part of an individual’s body and who permits the doing or refuses it, and FGM can and must be as protected against as the evil of enslaving the whole of an individual’s body or mind.

Accordingly, Congress must repass this law, or something very like it, but it ought to be passed under 5th Amendment’s due process clause

nor shall any person…be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law

and under the 14th Amendment’s due process clause

…nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law

And that due process plainly allows a Congressional bar against clitorectomy/female genital mutilation.

That won’t put Nagarwala back on the hook for her past practices of mutilation—criminal laws that are retroactive are anathema to liberty—but it will allow for criminal prosecution and jailing of future such butcheries.

 

Friedman’s ruling can be read here.

Mexico Says It’s Not a Safe Country?

President Donald Trump has said that the US and Mexico have reached an agreement—at least in principle (although Trump is his usual more definitive self)—that those seeking asylum in the US will remain in Mexico until their asylum cases have been heard and acted on by the US.  The Washington Post has claimed to quote incoming Interior Minister Olga Sanchez Cordero as saying so, too.

However, Sanchez Cordero says that she said no such thing to WaPo.  In fact, she says that no such deal, no Remain in Mexico program—”of any sort”—exists.  Given that newspaper’s record of honest reporting, I believe Sanchez Cordero.

What interests me about her statement, though, is this:

The future government does not consider […] that Mexico assumes the status of “safe third country” for Central American migrants, or from other countries, who are on Mexican territory or for those who will reach it in the future[.]

There are a few interpretations for this statement.  One is that Mexico doesn’t consider itself to be a “safe” country of any sort—a recognition that would be consistent with the corruption rampant in the Mexican police at all jurisdictional levels and with the broad power held by the several drug cartels that operate freely throughout Mexico.

Another is simply that Mexico doesn’t want the legal liability that would accrue from accepting that status.

A third is that rejecting the status is not the same as declining to make an exception for the current “caravan” of persons claiming to seek asylum in the US after having explicitly rejected Mexico’s offer of asylum.

It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out.