Tag Archives: politics

Not that Complicated

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In a Wall Street Journal article centered on why 3% inflation isn’t close enough to 2% inflation, even for government work, there was this bit:

Anticipating the public’s reaction is tricky, not least because economists still argue about why people hate inflation so much in the first place. In textbook models and in many real-world instances—including during the 2020s—wages tend to catch up to prices, so inflation doesn’t, over time, erode the purchasing power of the average worker’s paycheck.
Even so, inflation makes people feel that they are falling behind….

It’s not that complicated.

This is a case where opportunity costs become real and realized costs. Wages do catch up over time, but during that time, people keep right on aging. By the end of the inflationary period, the time behind them has in concrete terms eroded their purchasing power. The opportunities to do the things they’d wanted to do are lost forever. The abilities to do many things for themselves or with family and friends may no longer possible as they now may no longer be young enough to do them, depending on when in their lives the inflation struck them. The opportunities to acquire many of the things they wanted to acquire are permanently lost as they have less time left in which to enjoy those acquisitions, or in the case of a larger house to better accommodate a growing family, some if not all the children have left the nest and the larger house no longer is useful to them.

Over that time, too, and beyond it, wages don’t necessarily exceed the inflation, so catch-up, practical, useable catch-up—the ability, for instance, to expand savings to get back to where folks would have been had their savings regime not been interrupted by the inflationary period—does not exist.

Inflation makes people feel like they’re falling behind, because during the inflationary period they are falling behind. Then people remain behind because even with after the fact rises in wages, their opportunity to catch up is so heavily limited, and especially is the time available in which to catch up much more tightly constrained.

All of this especially is the case for folks on the lower rungs of our economic ladder. They start out with narrow margins for things like savings and acquisitions of highly useful things—that larger home, for instance, or a car to replace the increasingly expensive to maintain beater—much less to do or acquire things are fun to do or to have. In the best of times, they have trouble keeping up; with the losses from an inflationary period, they only fall farther behind, with no hope of recouping even that arrearage.

Here’s a Thought

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I do actually have one, every once in a while. This one is brief, as my thoughts often are.

President Donald Trump (R) has nominated a long and broad list of folks for various of the Departments, Agencies, and White House staff poitions; many of these are controversial, at least in the minds of Progressive-Democrats and the press. A subset of the controversial ones may not get confirmed.

There’s a way around that.

Trump should include all those whose confirmations are denied in his kitchen cabinet. There’s no reason for him to lose their advice, just because weak sisters and Progressive-Democrats in the Senate disapprove.

NB: There are parallels between a Trumpian kitchen cabinet as I propose and the origin of the function in President Andrew Jackson’s administration.

Government Moving at the Speed of Business

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This is what the Trump administration has done in the first couple of weeks, much less its first 100 days.

  • offered buyouts to 2 million civilian full-time federal workers. Remains to be seen how many will take the offer, but the offer was paired with warnings of being fired if the offer isn’t taken
  • more on Federal employment:
    • ordered federal workers back to the office full-time and agencies to take steps to halt remote work arrangements
    • freeze on federal hiring, except for military, immigration enforcement, national security, and public safety jobs
    • reinstated first-term Schedule F Executive Order, stripping potentially hundreds of thousands of government workers of government employment protections, making them easier to fire
    • acting director OMB memo: agency heads told to identify employees on probationary periods, or who have served less than two years
    • 160 NSC staff members “sent home”
  • outright fired some folks
    • 1,000 officials appointed by Joe Biden
    • heads of Coast Guard and TSA, and “other officials” fired
  • 20 senior career attorneys at the Justice Department, including environmental, criminal, national security, civil rights lawyers, and some immigration court staff, have been reassigned, some to newly formed Sanctuary Cities Enforcement Working Group
  • issued memo pausing potentially trillions of dollars in federal aid…. The freeze was blocked by a Federal district judge, but the review/audit and requirements for substantive recommendations for cutting remains in place
  • freeze on new civil rights litigation, halted all pending environmental litigation
  • ordered a 90-day pause in foreign development assistance pending assessments of efficiencies and consistency with his foreign policy
  • review of FEMA with a view to reform or close down
  • eliminated government diversity programs, including closing all federal offices, eliminating DEI-related jobs. Workers in those positions put on paid leave. Ordered hiring to be based on merit, with no racial, sex, religious discrimination allowed
  • reinstatement of thousands of troops involuntarily discharged for refusing Wuhan Virus vaccines during the Situation

Whodathunk a government could move that fast?

Students’ Decline

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American students—pupils, really—continue to decline in reading skills, and their math skills remain far too low.

The 67% of eighth-graders who scored at a basic or better reading level in 2024 was the lowest share since testing began in 1992, results from a closely watched federal exam show. Only 60% of fourth-graders hit that benchmark, nearing record lows.

And

In math, fourth-grade scores ticked up, while those for the eighth grade were flat. Math scores in both grades remained substantially below prepandemic benchmarks….

There is considerable angst regarding methods for teaching reading.

The results come in the midst of a wave of attention on how to teach students to read. Many school districts and states have emphasized phonics-based instruction, known as the science of reading, and shed other reading methods that focused more on using context to deduce the meaning of words.
Federal officials and researchers say there are no definitive explanations for the latest scores.

The angst is misguided. There’s no reason, for instance, why phonics and context can’t be taught together. They were, in fact, taught if not together then closely sequentially—phonics in first grade, context in second and third grade when I was in grade school. Nor is the Wuhan Virus Situation, often offered as an excuse for these failures, actually involved. The decline in reading and math skills has been going on since long before the virus appeared.

There’s also this bit of gaslighting, from the Denver school system honcho:

Denver Public Schools overhauled its reading curriculum in 2022. Simone Wright, the district’s chief of academics, said the move is making a difference. Denver’s reading scores on the National Assessment of Educational Progress increased in both grades, though the gains weren’t considered statistically significant.

“Not statistically significant” has a very clear meaning to anyone who can do his sums. That meaning is that it’s not possible to tell whether there were any gains at all, or even whether there was actual decline. Or, maybe not gaslighting so much as she’s as arithmetically illiterate as the pupils in her district.

I offer one definitive solution to the failure—which is a teaching failure, not a student failure (they’re pupils at that age because they’re so young; they remain pupils as they go up the grade ladder because teachers don’t teach them how to be students): stop passing the pupils up the grade ladder until they can read and do math.

This business of social promotion, which itself isn’t entirely on the teachers—parents play a role in “not letting Johnny and Susan fall behind”—is destructive, abusive of the children, and actually accelerates and deepens Johnny’s and Susan’s lag.

Here’s a sample of a high school graduation test from the end of the 19th century. Not only are today’s high schoolers wholly unprepared for such a thing, they have no hope of getting prepared without the basic teachings of reading and math from pre-school on up, and the discipline that comes from teachers (and parents) insisting on actual performance rather than social promotions.

Update: [Sigh]. Added the missing link to the test.

So Much for Bipartisanship

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Progressive-Democratic Party politicians, after spending the Biden years ignoring Republican input, have pushed for bipartisanship since President Donald Trump (R) resumed his position in the White House. Other Progressive-Democrat politicians have said maybe not.

Now, the House Minority Leader, Hakeem Jeffries (D, NY), has made it official. Regarding what he views as “extreme MAGA Republican agenda,”

We are going to fight it legislatively. We are going to fight it in the courts. We’re going to fight it in the streets.

This is why nothing a Party Congressman—in either house—can be believed when he claims to want bipartisanship. This Party practice of deliberate obstruction for obstruction’s sake and divisiveness solely in the name of Party, is why it’s so hard for us as Americans or as a nation to have nice things.