Category Archives: jobs

American Worker Shortage

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The Wall Street Journal‘s editors have taken note of our nation’s workforce problem and its relation to our immigration problem.

The birth rate has been sliding for years, and it’s about to translate into a shrinking labor force. By 2040, according to a study out this week, America could have more than six million fewer working-age people than in 2022. The only way to counter the domestic trend is by attracting workers from abroad.

One thing that would help with this worker shortage would be to raise the Social Security full retirement age to 70, or even 75. When Social Security was first developed at a national level, some 85 years ago, full retirement was 65, the worker:retiree ratio was 7:1, and life expectancy in retirement was on the order of 7 years. Today, the worker:retiree ratio is less that 3:1 and falling, and life expectancy in retirement is on the order of 15-20 years. Raising the retirement age would increase the number of workers in the labor force.

That by itself, though, would be only a Band-Aid fix outside the strong benefit it would provide to Social Security survival.

What’s far more broadly needed is to build the “big, beautiful wall” all along our southern border, pierced every mile with a border crossing station through which legitimate immigrants and guest workers could enter (and the latter leave), with that combined with a vastly streamlined legal immigration system that removed visa quotas, sped up vetting of immigrant wannabes, and applied requirements that the immigrant wannabes have economic value to add to our nation.

Even that, though, would be insufficient as a stand-alone fix. Our tax regime and our welfare program badly want reform. With lower tax rates on individuals and businesses, there’s more incentive to work and to hire. That incentive can be further expanded by eliminating the areas of overlap among our welfare programs (which will include eliminating some programs and combining parts of others into single programs) and adding work requirements to remaining programs.

When Did History Begin?

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According to members of the Progressive-Democratic Party, it began in 2022. Take, for instance, the Progressive-Democrat Congresswoman from Pennsylvania, Chrissy Houlahan.

As inflation cools, it’s important to think about how far we’ve come since the crisis brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

How far we’ve come:

At this time last year, due to the efforts of the Biden administration and congressional Democrats as we emerged from the pandemic, we were seeing strong economic growth, historically low unemployment, and large wage increases, particularly for low and middle-income workers.

What we were seeing at this time last year was the beginning of an Obama-esque slow recovery from the booming economy that already was expanding rapidly as we came out of the Wuhan Virus situation in the summer and fall of 2020 in that history that exists before this time last year.

What we are seeing since this time last year is the recovery to that latter half of 2020’s historic unemployment—for women, blacks, and Hispanics, especially—due to the recovery of jobs lost during the Wuhan Virus situation, and very few new jobs created.

What we are seeing since this time last year has been declining real wages in the face of Party-driven inflation as those wage increases—which Houlahan knows are only nominal, but chooses to elide—paled in the face of inflation. Only in the last month did nominal wage increases exceed inflation, and that’s far too soon to know whether this one time is the start of a trend or merely a one-off.

What we are seeing over the last two years is a widening of the wage gap between whites and minorities as that slow recovery and Party’s racist and sexist identity politics limit who gets back into those recovered jobs. That wage gap had narrowed significantly over the four years through 2020, as folks on the lower rungs—especially minorities and single mothers—actually got jobs (that historically low unemployment rate extant in 2020 and before) and had income. And their wages rose—nominally and in real terms—faster than did the wages of the middle and upper classes.

However, Americans were still experiencing high prices.

Yes, we are. And we will relative to our incomes for some years. Inflation may finally be coming back down—it’s still higher, though, than it was at the end of the prior administration, over two years ago—but as Houlahan admitted, inflation is a rate of price increase, it is not the prices themselves. The prices Party’s inflation drove up will not come back down.

One factor that contributes to those high prices in addition to overall inflation is the cost of energy. That has become even more expensive with Party’s open war on fossil fuel-based energy, and its effort to eliminate that industry altogether. They don’t care that energy is at the heart of the cost of production (and so at the heart of the cost of us ordinary Americans‘ purchases, especially for those of us on the lower economic rungs, below Houlahan’s middle class).

It’s certainly true that supply chain disruptions have contributed, also, to higher prices. However, the prior administration, and American businesses on their own, had already been working to revamp our supply chains to re-anchor them in more stable, more favorable locations. The disruptions of the barbarian’s invasion of Ukraine also have contributed. But that invasion was encouraged to start by the Progressive-Democrat-run Biden administration’s open timidity in the face of terrorists in western Asia and in the face of the barbarian chieftain in the Kremlin.

New Democrat, same as the old Democrat.

CIOs, Affirmative Action, and Diversity

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Company CIOs, Chief Information Officer inhabitants of the C-Suites, claim to be worried about the impact of the Supreme Court’s recent ruling banning colleges’ and universities’ use of race as an admission criterion on their own access to a suitably “diversity”-laden work force.

By removing race from college admission considerations, the pool of tech talent entering the workforce may not only be less diverse, it could also be smaller if underrepresented minorities don’t see the field as a welcoming or viable option, those executives say.

No, rather than looking to plus up their virtue credentials, these executives should be more worried about (prospective) employees’ ability to do the job than about whether their departments have the “correct” balance of skin colors and sexes.

There is this from Juniper Networks‘ CIO:

“I worry about, in universities, if we’re not making it a more hospitable environment, that we make it harder than it is,” said Sharon Mandell…. That means companies and IT leaders need to work to convince diverse workers that technology is “a compelling place, and a welcome place for them.”

That hints at a good start (but only hints); however, by beginning at the college/university level, it renders itself too late to be an effective start. Of course, I’m also, probably naively, assuming a benign definition of “hospitable.”

Hence my question: if these CIOs and their companies are serious, and not just virtue-signaling, what are they doing to improve K-12 education and the resulting better preparation for all students? If all students get an equal opportunity at a quality education, the resulting population of job applicants—whatever the job—will pretty much automatically have a requisite diversity, artificial as that criterion is.

Unless, of course, these CIOs (they wouldn’t be alone in this regard) actually think some groups of humans are intrinsically inferior in ability to other groups of humans and so those lesser groups need special handling and protection.

Stockpiling Workers?

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Hiring is up, apparently, and hours worked by employee is down.

[E]ven as employers cut hours, they are also adding workers—something they don’t usually do when contraction looms. Payrolls rose by 339,000 in May and by nearly 1.6 million for the year to date. Layoffs were nearly 13% lower in April than in the average month in 2019, according to the Labor Department.

How does that work, exactly? This is how.

The expense and trauma of hiring have left employers unusually eager to avoid shedding staff they will need when business picks up again, according to [Managing Director and Senior Economist at Nomura, Aichi] Amemiya.

Companies this time around are stockpiling workers against the turnaround and rise of the underlying economy. This is an expense more and more employers are willing to bear during the current slowdown and potential recession in order to be ahead of the curve on the other side, rather than chasing the recovery as has been the case in past slowdowns/recessions.

Aiding and Abetting?

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Acting as an accessory?

Lululemon CEO Calvin McDonald is defending with a straight face his decision to fire two employees who, while thieves were robbing a Lululemon store, verbally objected to the thefts, filmed the thieves in the act, and called the police.

McDonald insists that employees should “let the theft occur.” He went on:

We put the safety of our team, of our guests, front and center. It’s only merchandise. They’re trained to step back, let the theft occur, know that there’s technology and there’s cameras and we’re working with law enforcement.

This is, to use the technical term, a crock. The employees he fired used cameras—the ones in their cell phones—and they worked with law enforcement—they called the cops on the thieves.

Stepping back and letting the theft occur: that puts the safety of Lululemon employees front and center how, exactly? Allowing the crimes to occur unhindered only makes Lululemon stores—and other stores in the immediate area—even more susceptible to crime. And that endangers even more store employees and those customers who are present when criminals accept the McDonalds of the nation’s invitations.

I report. You decide. Or something like that.