A Hint

Progressive-Democrats appear to be losing votes in heretofore Progressive-Democrat-safe States.

21st Century Democrats looked at voting patterns throughout the rural Midwest (the heart of flyover country) over the last three Presidential elections. Aside from the expected shift to the right that the PAC saw in agricultural communities, the PAC found a much sharper shift, not just toward the right, but away from the Progressive-Democrats (my term) in rural manufacturing communities.

In the 565 factory town counties (small or midsize manufacturing), 19 had Democratic growth and 537 had GOP growth.

This outcome turns out to be closely tied to job availability and manufacturing facility existence.

In the small to midsize factory town counties…where support for the Republican presidential nominee grew between 2012 and 2020, more than 70% suffered declines in manufacturing jobs.

There’s a hint there regarding the current Biden-Harris administration’s job-destroying regulatory, spending, and taxing policies and its spend- and tax-a-thon reconciliation bill they’re about to pass.

There’s also a hint there for Republicans and about what they need to talk as they campaign in 2022 and 2024 and the outyears.

Worrying about the Wrong Time Frame

A Wall Street Journal opinion piece subheadline well summarizes the piece itself:

the Speaker pushes Democrats to take votes that will end careers in 2022

The WSJ‘s Editors write this as if they take the matter seriously. But they, and far too many others who also should know better, are taking far too short a view.

“Career ending” votes were taken in favor of Obamacare, too. Obamacare survives, and here is the Progressive-Democratic Party back in power.

So it will be with the Progressive-Democrat reconciliation bill and the pre-amendment to it that is the “infrastructure” bill. A few Progressive-Democrats might lose their seats as they vote to force passage, but these two destructive bills will live on.

And, dangerously, the Progressive-Democratic Party will recover.

This is Backwards

In a Wall Street Journal article on the difficulty of estimating ridership on roads and highways to be built in the future and so the need for them, and the poor allocations of costs and Federal dollars that result from the inaccuracies, there was this statement.

If lawmakers enact the $550 billion bipartisan infrastructure bill now before the House, state and local officials will have to decide which projects to spend money on.

This is backwards. State and local officials should have to decide first what infrastructure projects they want to complete, their cost, their priority, and have contracts already let contingent on receiving Federal dollars before Congress contemplates an infrastructure bill that would send taxpayer money to any of those States.

Those are critical first steps in getting to shovel-ready jobs to which to commit funds.

Ratification Bonuses

Mondelez International has settled its dispute with its workers as the company and the union representing the workers, the Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers International Union, signed a new four-year deal.

One importance of this, as far as I’m concerned, is that the supply of Oreo cookies is secured for that period. But what do I know; I’m a sucker for chocolate- and sugar-based junk food.

The deal, however, consists in large part, of

ratification bonuses, hourly wage increases, and a higher company match for 401(k) contributions….

The real importance of the deal is the inclusion of those ratification bonuses. Mondelez isn’t alone in agreeing to these artificial demands, made by unions for no serious reason, but only as an exercise of union strike-based extortion power.

Businesses need to stop being so meek; they need to stop bending over and accepting “ratification bonuses.” The only thing these things do is serve as an incentive for striking again so the unions can collect yet more vig for ending that one. And the next one. And….

The Value of a College Degree

According to Credible:

High school graduates make about $39,000 per year, while those with a Bachelor’s degree earn $73,000.

Average student loan debt on graduation, though, runs a bit over $37,000, with a typical annual payment on that debt is more than $4,700.

Here are the annual incomes from some of the skilled trades, according to my arithmetic and data from Indeed. Based on 50-week years (because some vacation matters, even if it’s not paid):

  • Journeyman Electrician (an entry level): $48,500
  • Journeyman Plumber: $45,040
  • Welder: $44,020
  • Carpenter: $42,720
  • Pipefitter: $51,270
  • Ironworker: $48,640

Tradesmen, also, have none of that $37,000 of student debt coming out of their training.

Keep in mind, too, that doctors, lawyers, philosophers, teachers, and on and on, have no place to apply their skills (and no place to live or play in their off hours) without the trades to build those facilities, or without the trades to build the communications, power distribution, and transportation infrastructures to connect them and to provide the means by which to get to and from them.

The financial value of a degree might seem greater than the value of a certification in a trade, but its greater value depends on the prior existence of those trades.