The Wages of…Bailouts

Having been “protected” from the outcomes of their own economic decisions and given an EU bailout instead, Ireland seems to have become dependent on the largesse of others and incapable of working through their own problems toward their own prosperity.

Here’s what’s going on now, as described by Christoph Pauly of Spiegel Online International [emphasis added].

Ireland’s demands are very precise—and could be costly for the Germans.  At stake are the €31 billion that the country received from the system of European central banks to save two crisis-ridden Irish financial institutions in 2010 [Note: this is the original bailout].  The country is expected to pay this money back in installments over the next 10 years.

Apocalypse Now

…or is it?

Here are some interesting graphs published by Spiegel Online International that show some estimated effects of a departure from the eurozone by Greece, Greece plus Portugal, those two plus Spain, and those three plus Italy.  Frankly I think the latter two departing is unlikely; they’re not is as poor shape, yet, as they’re made out to be.

This is chump change for the seven year period, even including Portugal: it compares to Germany’s 2012 GDP of €2.5 trillion ($3.2 trillion).  Even losing all four would “only” hurt badly, not inflict debilitating damage—and only relatively briefly, at that.  See a graph below for expansion on this point.  Notice, also, that the red bars are losses in growth, not loss of growth.

Debt Forgiveness and Bankruptcy

Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the IMF, insists as Spiegel Online International reports, that

For Greece to recover…creditor countries would have to forgive the government in Athens a large share of its debt.  “Nothing else will work[.]”

After all,

given that Greece will be unable to reach the target [of debt to GDP, originally 120% by 2020] on its own, European creditors have little choice but to forgive a portion of the debt they hold, Lagarde insists.

Additionally,

Bailouts

Spiegel Online International carried a disturbing story Monday on the subject of bailouts.

The proximate item is Greece’s economic strait, and this is what Spiegel is reporting about that.  The current troika—the IMF, the European Commission, and the European Central Bank—are proposing

[a]nother partial default.  That, indeed, would seem to be the conclusion that Greece’s main international creditors have come to.  According to information received by SPIEGEL, representatives of the so-called troika—made up of the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund—proposed just such a debt haircut at a meeting last Thursday held in preparation for the next gathering of euro-zone finance ministers.

This is Stupid

Spiegel Online International is describing another European hare-brained scheme in the mill for “bailing out” Greece.

Greece’s lenders are reportedly considering further relief in the form of a partial debt haircut for the crisis-wracked country, the Financial Times Deutschland reported on Friday.

Martin Blessing, chairman of Germany’s second-largest bank, Commerzbank, has also said a second debt haircut is likely.  “In the end we will see another debt haircut for Greece, in which all creditors will take part,” he said on Thursday in Frankfurt.

And

One European’s View of Democracy

Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti had this to say earlier in the week:

If governments allow themselves to be entirely bound to the decisions of their parliament, without protecting their own freedom to act, a break up of Europe would be a more probable outcome than deeper integration.

Hmm….  The people’s representatives should be disregarded when Government Knows Better?  So much for the Sovereign People.

He went on, though, in a vein that leads me to believe that he’s not so much anti-democratic as he is simply incompetent, saying that if the euro were allowed to become a factor in Europe drifting apart,

Eurozone Breakup Disaster?

Spiegel Online International carried an interesting article the other day.  They cited the Institute for New Economic Thinking as saying

We believe that as of July 2012, Europe is sleepwalking toward a disaster of incalculable proportions….

Paraphrasing them, SOI went on to say that the European leadership must move faster and more decisively, else the euro could simply disintegrate.  The INET report can be read here.

SOI went on, noting that

The experts wrote that the crisis is the result of flawed design, construction and implementation of the finance and currency system.  In order to rescue it, the economists are calling for a radical restructuring.

Europe’s Labor Problems

Aside from the debt and profligate spending problem, Europe’s labor laws are large contributors.  The Wall Street Journal recently described Italian labor law.  And Italy is not atypical for Europe.

  • Business pays 2/3 of each employee’s social security costs (I won’t go into how cheap we Americans are compared to the Europeans when it comes to social security).
  • Businesses with more than 10 employees (quoting the WSJ)

Collapse of the Euro?

Much is being made of the impending collapse of the euro, and of the disaster this would represent for Europe.  Indeed, a graph published by Spiegel Online can look frightening:

The risk to Germany in particular?  Much is made about the money Germany and Germans have in some of the PIIGS, as the graph below indicates.

But against the German 2011 GDP of €2.57 trillion, this totals to less than 4%.  That will sting, but not much.

Failure of the Euro—a False Fear from Moral Hazard

“The euro is in trouble and only Germany can fix it.”  That’s the meme—and the fear—described in a recent Spiegel Online piece.

Much of the euro zone and EU “leadership” is pushing for a “bank union,” a “debt repayment fund,” a communalization of (southern Europe) debt across Europe in the form of euro bonds.  Without one or more of these, goes the plaint, there is no way to stop the debt crisis.