The PRC Doesn’t Want to Lead the World?

That’s the claim of Michael Singh, Washington Institute for Near East Policy‘s Glazer Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East Director, in his Sunday Wall Street Journal op-ed.

I disagree, beginning with his subheadline:

China doesn’t aspire to lead the world, much less to establish peace, but only to undermine the US.

Only that last is accurate. The PRC most assuredly does intend to “lead the world,” and to do so by overriding and replacing us. Xi has said as much regarding replacing us in other venues.

Singh added this near the end of his piece:

A China that aimed to replace the US-led international order with one of its own devising might see….

No, those “opportunities” are irrelevant by being too soon and too far away to be moves by the PRC just yet. The PRC is focused on the South China Sea and its coming invasion of the Republic of China. Succeed there, as it’s already doing in the Sea, thereby driving the US out of the Western Pacific and taking control of the sea lines of commerce on which Japan and Korea depend for their very independence, and on which we so heavily depend, with 40% of our international economic activity coming through those lanes to our West Coast, and our nation loses credibility globally.

At that point, it’ll be time to move in on the ME and Africa, and then a meek Europe.

With each success, the PRC will be able to further isolate us and to exert increasing pressure on our foreign policy, potentiating our retreat from the world.

What Comes After the Hamas War in the Gaza Strip?

The Wall Street Journal tried to address this question last Thursday. As you might imagine, I have thoughts.

Biden administration officials say the path toward a more stable Middle East goes through the ruins of Gaza.

That’s not far wrong.

The latest blows to the White House plans are the persistent attacks by Houthi forces in Yemen against international shipping in the Red Sea….

No, the blow here is in Biden’s timid response to the Houthis’ attacks on commercial shipping. The paucity of serious response to the terrorists is empirically demonstrated by the Houthis’ continued attacks on that shipping, escalated by their targeting US Navy ships, also.

US goals for the region require forging a consensus on who will secure and rebuild Gaza after the Israeli invasion.

Biden/Blinken’s goal for a PLA/PA governance of the Gaza strip is dangerously stupid. Aside from the fact that that gang has already failed in the Gaza Strip and was run out on a rail years ago, the PLA/PA is just another terrorist organization.

Gaza Strip governance should be built up from the Abraham Accord nations, less Israel, with Egypt and Jordan joining those Accord nations.

A Hit and a Miss

A few days ago, Iran briefly invaded Pakistan with missiles and drones to hit some facilities the Iranian mullahs claimed were terrorist organizations that were abusing Iran. Iran succeeded in killing two Pakistani children.

In response, Pakistan has

completed a “series of highly coordinated and specifically targeted precision military strikes” against Pakistani terrorists in Iran’s Siestan-o-Baluchistan province….

These are terrorists to whom Iran has given sanctuary rather than dealing with them more constructively.

That’s the hit.

The miss is that Pakistan chose to leave alone the sites from which the Iranian missiles and drones were launched against Pakistan. Those should have been destroyed as part of Pakistan’s response.

Why Ukraine Must Win

Former Russian President and current head of the Vladimir Putin-supporting United Russia Party and Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia, which coordinates and integrates Russian national security policy, posted this call for the utter destruction of Ukraine and threat of Ukrainian people’s extermination if they did not submit on Telegram, a message service used extensively by Ukraine and Russia, among others.

The Russian’s original:

Дмитрий Медведев
Почему Украина опасна для её жителей

Существование Украины смертельно опасно для украинцев. И я имею в виду отнюдь не только нынешнее государство, бандеровский политический режим. Я говорю о любой, совершенно любой Украине.

Почему?
Наличие самостоятельного государства на исторических российских территориях теперь будет постоянным поводом для возобновления военных действий. Поздно. Кто бы ни стоял у руля ракового новообразования под именем Украина, это не добавит легитимности его правлению и правовой состоятельности самой «стране». А, стало быть, вероятность новой схватки будет сохраняться неопределённо долго. Практически всегда. Более того, существует стопроцентная вероятность нового конфликта, какие бы бумажки о безопасности ни подписывал Запад с марионеточным киевским режимом. Его не предотвратит ни ассоциация Украины с ЕС, ни даже вступление этой искусственной страны в НАТО. Это может произойти и через десять, и через пятьдесят лет.

Именно поэтому существование Украины и фатально для украинцев. Они практичные люди в конечном счёте. Как бы они сейчас и не желали смерти русским. Как бы они ни ненавидели российское руководство. Как бы ни стремились в мифические Евросоюз и НАТО. Выбирая между вечной войной и неизбежной гибелью и жизнью, абсолютное большинство украинцев (ну разве что за исключением минимального числа отмороженных националистов) выберет в конечном счёте жизнь. Поймут, что жизнь в большом общем государстве, которое они сейчас не сильно любят, лучше смерти. Их смерти и смерти их близких. И чем быстрее украинцы осознают это – тем лучше.

The English translation, via Google Translate:

Dmitry Medvedev
Why Ukraine is dangerous for its inhabitants

The existence of Ukraine is mortally dangerous for Ukrainians.

And I don’t mean only the current state, Bandera’s political regime. I’m talking about any, absolutely any Ukraine.

Why?
The presence of an independent state on historical Russian territories will now be a constant reason for the resumption of hostilities.Late. No matter who is at the helm of the cancerous growth under the name of Ukraine, this will not add legitimacy to his rule and the legal viability of the “country” itself. And, therefore, the likelihood of a new fight will persist indefinitely. Almost always. Moreover, there is a 100% probability of a new conflict, no matter what security papers the West signs with the puppet Kyiv regime. Neither Ukraine’s association with the EU, nor even the entry of this artificial country into NATO will prevent it. This could happen in ten or fifty years.

That is why the existence of Ukraine is fatal for Ukrainians.

They are practical people at the end of the day. No matter how they now wish the Russians to die. No matter how much they hate the Russian leadership. No matter how much they strive to join the mythical European Union and NATO. Choosing between eternal war and inevitable death and life, the vast majority of Ukrainians (well, perhaps with the exception of a minimal number of frostbitten nationalists) will ultimately choose life. They will understand that life in a large common state, which they do not like very much now, is better than death. Their deaths and the deaths of their loved ones. And the sooner Ukrainians realize this, the better.

This is why the barbarian must be utterly crushed, once and for all.

Full stop.

A Cost of Biden’s Red Sea Dithering

As Progressive-Democrat President Timid Joe Biden continues to respond to Houthi terrorist attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea with namby-pamby—the recent strikes against some terrorist launch sites in Houthi-occupied western Yemen are proving to be a one-off, with Houthi attacks continuing, with Biden shying away from further response (his Tuesday potshots don’t count)—Egypt is suffering considerable shipping drops from the reduced shipping through its Suez Canal.

International Monetary Fund figures show 35% less cargo was transported through the Suez Canal in the first week of 2024 compared with the same period last year.

The shipping rate drop is made clear in these graphs. The first is an Agence France-Presse graph:This one is from the IMF’s Port Watch:

The key part of this 4-yr graph is the blue-highlighted last-six-months date range at the right. The rest of the four years just shows how steady shipping was before the Houthi attacks and Biden’s timidity in the face of them.

As usual, right click and select the Open Image in New Tab option for a larger versions of the graphs.

From that shipping drop, Egypt’s Suez Canal-related revenue is down 40% in just the first 10 days of this year compared to 2023, as a result of the Houthis’ attacks.

The Houthis’ terrorist attacks on commercial shipping aren’t what’s isolating the Suez Canal from the world’s shipping lanes, though. It’s Biden’s tolerance for those attacks, and his meek acceptance of them as the new status quo, that are doing that.