Monthly Archives: February 2023

Debt Limits and Spending

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The Congressional Budget Office is out with its projection for our nation’s economic future.

As for the much-discussed federal debt, the nearby chart shows how fast it has grown in the last several years. Debt held by the public—the kind we have to pay back to creditors like the Chinese and Japanese based on contracts—is now 97% of the economy, and will soon rise to 100% and keep going to 118.2% in 2033. How high can it go before creditors stop lending? No one knows, but it will be ugly if they do.

Here is that nearby chart:

This illustrates the tight relationship between spending and debt limits, and why future spending cuts must be part of negotiations related to raising today’s debt ceiling limit. It’s barely possible to see any effect from the 2011 debt limit increase that was agreed in exchange for some “freezing” of Federal spending levels, a pseudo-freeze that in the end ended rather quickly.

There need to be real reductions in Federal spending, not just a reduction in spending growth or even a pretend freeze. There’s plenty of room in welfare spending, for instance, for cutting. Furthermore, all Federal spending is discretionary, the bad habit of calling some spending mandatory notwithstanding. Finally, to put a legitimate floor under spending (which doesn’t contradict the forgoing because it’s a floor not a mandatedly ever-increasing level), there’s a Constitutional requirement to spend adequately on national defense and debt repayment.

In the end, too, tax rate cuts, leaving more money in the hands of private economy actors—us average Americans and our businesses—leads to increases in Federal revenues. This has been empirically demonstrated by every tax rate cut since President John Fitzgerald Kennedy’s reduction of the top rate from the neighborhood of 90% to the region of 70%.

Federal spending cuts coupled with Federal tax rate cuts—they’re win-win for our economy and our nation, if only the Progressive-Democratic Party politicians in Congress and the White House would get out of the way.

New Possibilities

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The People’s Republic of China has already said it intended to expand its presence in Antarctica to

add new ground stations in Antarctica to support its satellite activity and data collection as concerns mount over Beijing’s surveillance programs and the rising security threats directed at the US.

Rick Fisher, Senior Fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center and Global Taiwan Institute Advisory Board member has an additional concern.

In 2021, state media revealed that China had put a LIDAR—a laser radar—into the Zhongshan station to conduct “atmospheric research.’ Any kind of laser raises the possibility that the LIDAR could be upgraded to be a far more powerful laser.

That’s true enough, and it’s a fairly simple upgrade and one about which to be concerned. However, for many of our satellites and those of our friends and allies, it would be a low angle attack through much of our atmosphere to get at very many of our satellites.

I have a larger concern, one also touched on by Fisher.

If you’re going to be attacking the United States in that manner—traversing Antarctica—it is extremely useful to have the ability to update a FOBS [Fractional Orbit Bombardment System] bus[.]

The PRC has already tested an around-the-world hypersonic nuclear missile attack profile; that test missile missed its target after its circumnavigation by some 25 miles. The route wouldn’t need to be all that close to over-the-south-pole to pick up a precise course update from the PRC’s Antarctica ground station. And at this point in our deteriorating defense capability, such a system gone operational would give the PRC a first-strike capability.

Christine Wilson’s Weak Apologia

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Soon to be ex-Federal Trade Commissioner Christine Wilson issued her “explanation” for quitting her post as FTC Commissioner. Her lengthy rationalization of her decision to walk away from her responsibilities as FTC Commissioner aggregated to as a minority member of a Left-dominated Commission, she was unable to get the FTC Chairwoman to change her ways.

This is how the Left wins. Putative Conservatives turn tail and run when things get tough, cutting and running especially during a time when the erstwhile Conservative chair will be sat in by a Progressive replacement.

I have failed repeatedly to persuade Ms Khan and her enablers to do the right thing, and I refuse to give their endeavor any further hint of legitimacy by remaining. Accordingly, I will soon resign as an FTC commissioner.

Any excuse to run away. Staying on would give legitimacy only if she meekly acceded to Khan’s misbehaviors. If she kept the fight going, even if losing the fight, she would be lending no legitimacy to Khan; on the contrary, she would be highlighting Khan’s misbehaviors. But it’s just personally easier to…quit.

Liability

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The Supreme Court is taking up a case centered on Internet platform liability, or lack of it, for things posted on those platforms by users. Wall Street Journal editors asked a couple of questions on the matter.

But are internet sites liable for the algorithms they use to sort and present content?

Liable for the algorithms in the legal sense? That’s an open question, and the Supremes are likely to answer it Gonzalez v Google, albeit unusefully narrowly.

However, the Internet sites most assuredly are responsible for the algorithms and what the algorithms sort and present. Those algorithms, after all, were written by the Internet sites’ human employees.

On the other hand,

Do social-media sites have immunity for fact-checks they append to disputed posts? What if search engines use language models to directly answer user queries, with text synthesized from the web?

Absolutely, they do not have immunity. This is the social-media site doing after-the-fact commenting on the legitimacy of what a user has posted, and so the site is creating its own liability with that after-the-fact legitimacy-checking. Keep in mind, too, those search engines, language models, and text synthesizing algorithms all are written by human employees of those social-media sites. Since that software does only what the human programmers code it to do, and those human programmers code what the site employs them to do, the use of that after-the-fact software deepens the social-media sites’ lack of immunity.

TikTok

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TikTok is trying to negotiate an agreement with our government that would allow it to continue operations within our nation.

TikTok has been negotiating with the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US, an interagency government panel, for more than two years on a way to wall off the company’s data and operations from the Chinese government.

The article’s headline, though, correctly identifies what should be the deal-breaking factor:

TikTok’s Talks With US Have an Unofficial Player: China

The China in question is the People’s Republic of China.

TikTok is a wholly owned subsidiary of ByteDance. ByteDance is a company domiciled in the PRC. The PRC has a 2017 National Intelligence Law that makes all PRC-domiciled companies beholden to the PRC intelligence community for any and all intelligence-gathering and reporting tasks the intel community might choose to levy on the company. That makes TikTok a potential espionage facility operating for the PRC within our nation.

There shouldn’t be any negotiation at all regarding TikTok: there’s nothing to discuss. The “unofficial player” isn’t hidden at all; it’s the PRC with its intelligence-gathering imperative.