It’s Not Their Budget

They’re not the ones who have to live with it.  Brussels is just sitting on the safety of the sidelines, carping.

The European Union took the unprecedented step Tuesday of rejecting Italy’s draft budget as incompatible with the bloc’s rules on fiscal discipline, escalating a battle between Europe’s establishment and populists in Rome.

Italy’s economic woes impact other members of the eurozone, of the EU at large?  They don’t have to.  The EU has no more obligation to bail out Italy—if the eventuality eventuates—than it had with Greece.  Italy has no more need to put other nations ahead of its own economic well-being than had Greece.

If Brussels actually has an interest, it should work with Italy, not block it.  That’s all on the EU, not on Italy.

Good, bad, or indifferent, it’s Italy’s budget, not Europe’s.  Italy should press ahead, as though Brussels hadn’t squawked.  National sovereignty matters.

Leaving the INF Treaty

The treaty that purported to limit the intermediate range nuclear forces possessed by the USSR (at the time of its agreement) and the US has long been violated by Russia, as the Obama administration acknowledged some years ago.  Now President Donald Trump has decided to withdraw from the treaty if both Russia and the People’s Republic of China (which is not a signatory to this Euro-centric treaty) don’t come to the table with meaningful steps to measurably and verifiably limit/eliminate such weapons.

This remark, cited by Deutsche Welle at the link above, illustrates a major misunderstanding of the withdrawal.  Steven Pifer, a former top State Department official and US ambassador to Ukraine who was part of the team from Washington that negotiated the INF treaty (no vested interest here in preserving the thing…):

President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the INF treaty now is a mistake. It will cause division within NATO—senior German, French and Italian officials have already questioned it—and the United States will be blamed for the treaty’s demise, despite the Russian violation.

There are a number of things wrong here.  For one thing, the attitude completely ignores the fact of Russian violation—which is a first step to Russian breakout in INF technology as well as in operational forces in being—even as it ignores, also, the Russian deployment of INF missiles in Kaliningrad, from which most of western Europe can be targeted and held hostage.  An American decision to let Russia get away with this unanswered is a serious threat not only to Europe, but to our own independence of action.

This bit from the same man:

Once the treaty lapses, Russia will be free to deploy land-based intermediate-range missiles for which the United States currently has no counterpart.

They already are, and we already don’t.  It’s time to redress that before it gets too far out of hand.

For another thing, it ignores the fact that NATO already stands a treaty divided.  Europe is upset with the US over our insistence that they actually honor their own promise, voluntarily made, to commit 2% of their national GDPs to NATO forces.  Eastern Europe, especially the NATO member nations of the region, already are upset with the NATO members in western Europe over the latter’s evident reluctance to give practical, physical force to words of defending eastern Europe from Russian aggression.  This division, especially, has urgency generated by Russia’s having partitioned and occupied parts of Georgia and Ukraine, Russia’s having moved forces, including tactical nuclear weapons permitted under existing treaties closer to its borders with those eastern European nations, and the presence of those Russian INF forces in Kaliningrad.  And the fact that those eastern European nations still remember what it was like to exist with Soviet boots on their necks.

This gives much of the game away:

I oppose Trump’s plan as much for how it’s being done as the substance.  Trump has set the US up to take the political heat in the international community and particularly in Western Europe for its failure even though it’s primarily Russia’s fault.

Because form is far more important than actual, physical threat demanding actual physical response.  It’s a bit of European arrogance and of the American Left’s submissiveness to expect the US to submit itself to popular opinion—we’ll be blamed for the treaty’s demise and so we should not walk?—when such timidity is so much a threat to our national security.

Never mind that there’s not a treaty to leave, except in the narrowest, most legalist sense, since Russia destroyed it with their weapons development and deployment in careful violation of it.

Carbon Dioxide and Bias at the EPA

Cass Sunstein thinks there’s bias in the Trump EPA in the way the agency handles CO2.  He’s right, but not in the way he thinks.

The only way to solve the climate-change problem, and to prevent massive harm in the US, is for all the world’s big emitters [of CO2] to agree to take account of the global damage.

There’s the heart of the political concern and a demonstration of Sunstein’s bias.

Carbon’s role in the environment is its contribution to acid rain through its role as a constituent of CO2. That problem has been solved, years ago.

CO2’s role in climate is demonstrated by ice cores that show atmospheric CO2 rises after planetary warming has begun and by longer records that show, over geologic time, a lack of correlation between atmospheric CO2 and planetary temperature. That problem does not exist.

Finally, there is some overlap between environment and climate, but they are not interchangeable terms, even though Sunstein uses them so.

Italy and the EU

Recall Italy’s proposed budget, which defied Brussels by having a larger deficit relative to its GDP than EU budget rules allow.  I decried that budget then, and I stand by that disdain.

Now, however,

Italian Economy Minister Giovanni Tria has told the European Commission that Italy will raise its deficit to 2.4% of gross domestic product (GDP), defying eurozone budget rules. In a letter sent to Brussels in response to a formal warning from the EU.

Brussels continues to not like the budget.

[T]he EU’s European Economic Affairs Commissioner, Pierre Moscovici, reminded Italy that its structural deficit was “way too high.” He told the France Inter radio station that he did not want a “crisis with Italy” over its planned deficit-raising budget and still hoped for “constructive dialogue.”

The Italian people, though, favor the budget by a nearly 3:2 margin; this is quite a strong consensus as such things go in Italy.  From that, I say that the Italian government should stay the course, my concerns about the budget itself notwithstanding.  This is a question of national sovereignty vs the requirements of an international body.

The budget violates EU rules?  Yep.  Maybe Italy should start giving consideration to leaving the European Union.

Union Selfishness

In The Wall Street Journal‘s Allysia Finley piece about Progressive-Democrats’ targeting California Republicans, this bit jumped out at me:

The Los Angeles Unified School District is making emergency budget cuts and layoffs to avoid bankruptcy, yet the teachers union is threatening to strike if its members don’t receive a 6% raise.

Hmm….

 

h/t Ralph