Too Much Retrenchment

Christian Whiton, in an op-ed for Fox News‘ online outlet, espoused a large retrenchment and withdrawal of the US (he couched it in terms of withdrawal of our troops only) from Europe and the Middle East.  In one region, though, he’s badly mistaken and goes much too far (he’s mistaken in the other areas, too, but this really stands out).

The president should turn our military bases in Europe over to our NATO allies and withdraw most US troops.
We have kept troops in Europe since World War II, and that war ended 73 years ago. Our European bases have been obsolete since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, and they’ve been of no use to us in the conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria.
Why should US troops defend Germany, for example, where polls show only 30% of Germans have a favorable view of America? On top of that, Germany treats us unfairly on trade, fabricates anti-American news, and is rich enough to defend itself.

No, we should not withdraw most of our troops from Europe.

It’s certainly true that many of those bases have been useless to our efforts in Afghanistan, Iraq, or Syria, but the claim ignores two simple facts: NATO never was designed—or repurposed—to support anything other than a Warsaw Pact (actually, a Soviet Union) invasion of Western Europe.  Secondly the purpose mismatch would disappear if Whiton got his wish and we withdrew our troops from Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria.

However, it’s also true (though elided in the op-ed) that many of those bases have been used as staging areas for operations in the Middle East and Afghanistan, many of our NATO allies have, and are, participating in those efforts—including a NATO contingent in Afghanistan—and several of those bases have been critical in dealing with combat casualties on their evacuations from the combat zones (Landstuhl comes to mind).

To an extent, though, the bases have become obsolete, although not necessarily in the Trumpian economic sense (and the NATO allies are moving more effectively to redress that than they did with the prior administration’s efforts).  No, with modern war capabilities, especially including missile and cyber war, the bases have become targets—as have the (too few) locations for forward basing of replacement equipment and ammunition.

The premise that Germany treats us unfairly in trade is arguably true (though we would do well to get rid of LBJ’s chicken war tariff on German light trucks), but it’s irrelevant.  Defense isn’t about international trade; it’s about a nation’s or a region’s physical security.  That Germany engages in anti-American fake news also is irrelevant: all journalist industries have their liars and fakers; this, too, has nothing to do with defense.

Germany, and several of the other countries in European NATO, certainly are rich enough to contribute more to their own and to the common effort (on which, see above), but as the last centuries’ wars demonstrated, Germany is not ” rich enough to defend itself.”  They don’t have the population to man the numbers of equipment—tanks, heavy guns, infantry—to face down the currently resurgent Russian threat—which is actively tactical, nuclear, and cyber.  To face that down requires a coalition effort.

It’s also true, though, as Whiton pointed out, that Germans don’t want us there anymore.  Absent hard data, I speculate that several of the other NATO member nations think we’ve outstayed our welcome, also.

Works for me.

But rather than withdrawing from Europe altogether, we should reallocate.

Keep in mind that at violently acquisitive and heavily armed Russia is actively threatening non-Russian Europe: it already has partitioned and occupied Georgia, and it’s in the process of doing the same with Ukraine (it has occupied Crimea, and it’s moving actively to consolidate its occupation of eastern Ukraine and to expand those holdings).  It has engaged in cyber war with each of the Baltic State nations, and it is stirring up the Russian populations in those nations, potentially prelude to a modern-day Anschluss.  It has abrogated the Intermediate Range Missile Treaty, an action that led President Donald Trump to formally withdraw us from it, and it as moved other tactical nuclear weapons close to its western border and into Kaliningrad, from which it can strike with nuclear strength most of western Europe.  It is in late-stage development of hypersonic nuclear weapons as it moves to vastly upgrade all of its nuclear forces.  It has begun harassing and interfering with civilian shipment into the Sea of Azov and the Baltic Sea (and with Ukrainian military shipments into the former).  And on and on.

Reallocation.

Reallocate our politics as well as our defense forces.  Eastern European nations are only newly freed from the Soviet Union’s yoke, and they remember well the nature of Soviet boots on their necks.  They do clearly understand the threat actively presented by Russia today as it seeks—in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s own words—to restore the old Soviet Union empire.

Without walking away from NATO—it still has its uses—we should form a new mutual defense alliance with those eastern European nations: Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Ukraine, Poland, Romania, Moldova.  It would be useful to see if Finland, Sweden, and Norway would be interested, along with Denmark and Great Britain.  Then we should withdraw most of our troops from European NATO—which is, generally, western Europe, and which nations have forgotten what it’s like to live under rapacious tyranny—and shift them to those eastern European nations.  And base them in a much more dispersed manner, as well as thoroughly dispersing the forward based resupply facilities.

Faith in the PRC

The People’s Republic of China is broadening the reach of its religion.

Officials have threatened to close the Early Rain Covenant Church in the central city of Chengdu by the end of the year in keeping with new religious-management regulations, according to several congregants who said they had been waiting for the net to fall. In coordinated raids starting Sunday night, police detained Pastor Wang Yi and more than 100 of the church’s 500 members, said Li Yingqiang, a church leader.

Wang and his congregants have committed no felonies that anyone outside of the PRC would recognize.  He has, though, objected to the intrusiveness of President Xi Jinping and his Party and government, though, and he’s done so often from the pulpit.

That’s blasphemous: the One True Religion in the PRC is that of the Chinese Communist Party.

Just ask the Muslim Uighers, the Falun Gong, Yellow Hat Buddhists (and all other Buddhists), and the Christians.

Ukraine and Russia, Again

The Wall Street Journal had an editorial on this earlier, but they’re selling the Ukraine situation short along with several others.

The [Russian] attack violated a 2003 treaty that designated the Azov Sea as shared territory between Russia and Ukraine.

Sadly, this accepts as fait accompli the existing invasion, partition, and occupation of Ukraine by Russia.

The attack, and that invasion, partition, and occupation, also violated, and violate, the Budapest Memorandum, which the Western signers (the US and UK) appear too timid to enforce—even though we’d be confronting a country whose economy is roughly akin to that of the Black P-Stone Nation, and whose morals are those of MS-13.

Another Betrayal

Recall Russia’s latest provocation (which amounts to an act of war), consisting of ships of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet ramming a Ukrainian tugboat and firing on and seizing the Ukrainian three-ship flotilla of which that tug was a part along with the “detention” of the crews of the three ships.

Germany—Chancellor Angela Merkel—has magnanimously offered to mediate the matter.

The German chancellor phoned [Russian President] Vladimir Putin on Monday evening to emphasize the “necessity for de-escalation and dialog,” government spokesman Steffen Seibert said in a statement. For his part, the Russian president condemned Ukraine’s “provocative behavior” and said he hoped Berlin could “influence” Ukraine into refraining from such actions in the future.

The tentative solution hashed out by Merkel and Putin, Seibert reported, was “an analysis of the incident with the participation of Russian and Ukrainian border-security experts.”

The “provocative behavior” was the flotilla’s sailing past Ukraine’s Russian-partitioned and -occupied Crimea oblast on its way from Odesa to Mariupol—or its intent to do so at the time it was attacked and captured.  Russia claims that the flotilla violated Russian territorial waters during the sailing and that the “provocation” was compounded by the presence of Ukrainian intelligence officers aboard the flotilla.

Merkel has meekly cynically accepted that premise, even though she knows it to be false.  It isn’t possible for Ukrainian shipping—military or civilian—to violate Ukraine’s territorial waters.  The only Russian waters in the Black Sea are well east of the Kerch Strait, roughly between Anapa and Sochi; that would be a ludicrous route for this flotilla to have taken.

This amounts to another German betrayal of Ukraine, following as it does Germany’s walk-away from the Budapest Memorandum (which Germany, a non-nuclear nation, avoided signing in the first place), wherein Russia (among others) guaranteed Ukraine’s territorial integrity and national independence if it gave up its nuclear arsenal (which it did), in favor of the Minsk II “accord,” wherein France and Germany (remember this EU axis?) urged Russia and Ukraine to play nice, accepting the fact of Russian occupation, along with pro-Russia rebels, of two of Ukraine’s eastern oblasts and that Russian seizure of Crimea.

Some friend.

Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko has got to be having second thoughts about the benefits of joining the European Union or NATO.  He plainly can’t count on either later with the EU axis (and key NATO members) selling his country out now.  Ukraine would be better off in free-trade zone consisting of eastern European nations, the UK, and the US, and membership in a similarly constituted mutual defense arrangement.  It’s never too late to negotiate such arrangements.

Guns and Killings

This, from no less a Liberal outlet than the Chicago Tribune.  John Lott, Jr, Crime Prevention Research Center President, provided some gun-related killings statistics for the Tribune.  He began by defining what constitutes mass killings, a term too often bandied about without definition.  The FBI’s definition is what he used.

  • shootings must claim four or more lives in a public place
  • shootings must be carried out simply with the intention of killing
    • excluded are gang fight killings because they tend to be motivated by battles for drug turf
    • excluded are murders incidental to other crimes
    • excluded are politically motivated attacks, such as assassinations or killings pursuant to guerrilla conflicts

The he came to the actual data.

Of the 97 countries where we identified mass public shootings,

  • the US ranks 64th per capita in its rate of attacks of the 97 countries with mass public shootings
  • the US ranks 65th in fatalities.
  • Tightly gun-controlled European countries, such as Norway, Finland, France, Switzerland and Russia, each have 25%+ higher per capita murder rates than the US

In the interval from 1998 to 2015, there were

  • 2,354 attacks and at least 4,880 shooters outside the US
  • 53 attacks and 57 shooters in the US

The US has 4.6% of the world’s population but only 1.49% of the murders, 2.20% of the attacks, and less than 1.15% of the mass public shooters worldwide.

And: of all the mass public shootings that have occurred since 1950 98% have occurred in places where citizens are banned from having guns.

What’s missing from the research is all the mass shooting attempts that have been short-circuited or stopped altogether by citizens on scene when the incidents began—the true first responders—who had firearms on their person and so could respond inside the two-five minutes that even a talented, trained, and motivated policeman and police force will need to arrive—after the call, with its intendent delay, goes out.  Occurrences illustrated by these anecdotes.

  • a concealed handgun permit holder stopped an alleged killer who was shooting blacks at a Kroger grocery store in Louisville, KY
  • armed off duty policemen stopped a mass killer wannabe before he could get started at a Draw Mohammed contest in Dallas, TX
  • two gunmen in College Park, who herded party-goers into separate male-female groups and then compared the number of bullets they had with human targets were stopped by one partier who was able to reach his pistol, engaged the two, killing one