Monthly Archives: September 2018

The Rising Cost of Hurricanes

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It’s not from more frequent or fiercer hurricanes—the rate and sternness of them actually is down over the last several years—but the increasing density of population and supporting building on hurricane-prone shores and the increasing costs of the buildings that’s driving the cost of hurricane damage.

Counties along the US shoreline that endured hurricane-strength winds from Florence in September experienced a surge in population from 1980 to 2017, with an increase of 95 people per square mile—more than double the density. Overall, Gulf and East Coast shoreline counties, those vulnerable to hurricane strikes, increased by 160 people per square mile, compared with 26 people per square mile in the rest of the mainland, over the same period.

And

The devastating effect of Florence, like Harvey in 2017, was primarily related to flooding.
…
For storms like Harvey, changes in land use that come with urbanization, such as replacing permeable surfaces like grass with impermeable surfaces like concrete, can cause big changes in water runoff.
Sandy had downgraded from being a hurricane to what’s known as an “extratropical” storm by the time it made landfall in 2012, but it hit major population centers causing “extensive damage across several northeastern states,” making it the 4th most expensive storm to hit the U.S. since 1980 with $72.19 billion in damages according to NOAA’s analysis.

Yet insurance—for flooding, wind damage, and so on—isn’t seeing rising premiums.  That’s especially the case for flood insurance.  That’s also where Government has crowded out private insurers with Government flood insurance sold at artificially low premiums, wholly independent of the risks actually being covered.

And that means that no one has any incentive to think about where they build, whether commercially or residentially: the damage will be repaid with OPM.

Budgets and Austerity

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The Italian coalition government (interesting in its own right, consisting as it does as a teaming up of the far left 5 Star Movement and the far right Liga) has decided to increase government spending and decrease taxes.  This has been projected to produce a 2.4% budget deficit.  For a government already badly in debt, this deficit isn’t good.

Cutting taxes has been decried by others as being the cause of such deficits and debts.  Spending cuts cannot be allowed, say the same folks, because that would be an austere measure.

They’re wrong.

Cutting taxes leaves more money in the hands of the citizenry, the folks best positioned and best suited to make decisions concerning how their money should be used.

Cutting spending—a necessary measure to stay within the taxes collected—far from being an austerity measure, would enable Italy’s economy to burgeon. Getting the government out of competition with the citizens and businesses of the Italian economy for that economy’s resources will reduce price pressure, and it will leave those resources more available to the private actors, who will use those resources more efficiently than any government can achieve.

Italy’s move to cut taxes and increase spending is a half measure.  Spending needs to be cut to fit within the revenue the taxes will produce. Make no mistake on a related matter, too: the burgeoning economy will produce a net increase in revenue to the Italian government.

The EU and Iran

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The European Union is busily working with Iran to develop a channel for payments that’s outside the normal flow of currencies so that the EU and Iran can continue to do business with each other outside the US sanction regime.  The purpose of this is so the EU can facilitate Iran’s economy and so the EU can make money.

Nothing wrong with that last, at all.  The EU should be working to support its businesses.

There are other ways of achieving that, though.  With this path, the EU is making itself complicit in Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

[High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica] Mogherini said Iran has remained fully committed to its obligations under the nuclear deal, as certified by a dozen reports from UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency. She also hailed the 2015 agreement as a major achievement for diplomacy and nonproliferation….

This is entirely disingenuous. On what basis does Mogherini believe Iran’s claims?

What inspections? No one is allowed to inspect Iran’s civilian facilities without weeks of advance warning. No one is allowed to inspect Iran’s military facilities, where weapons development primarily occurs, at all. Iran isn’t being inspected for compliance.

How is an agreement to delay nuclear weapons development for a few years (even stipulating Iran is honoring the delay) followed by complete release of all restrictions on Iran’s nuclear weapons development a major achievement for nonproliferation?

Mogherini and her EU cohorts have chosen not to explain any of that.

It’s a Start

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The Trump administration has agreed to sell $330 million worth of spare parts to the Republic of China.  The spares will support the RoC’s F-16s, C-130s, and other of the island nation’s military aircraft.

It’s a start.  However, we need to do more.  We should be selling uprated F1-16s, F-15s, and A-10s to them.  We should be selling missile defense systems to them and brokering deals between the RoC and Israel for the latter’s Iron Dome and Arrow missile and rocket defense systems.  We should be selling the RoC anti-ship and anti-aircraft weapons systems.  We should be selling them land-attack cruise missile systems.

We should be selling the RoC the training necessary to maintain and operate those systems.

We should be helping the RoC defend itself against an increasingly aggressive and acquisitive People’s Republic of China.

Be Like Europe

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Instapundit has some data concerning what that would mean for us.  Citing the Foundation for Economic Education:

Most European countries (including Germany, Sweden, Denmark, and Belgium) if they joined the US, would rank among the poorest one-third of US states on a per-capita GDP basis, and the UK, France, Japan and New Zealand would all rank among America’s very poorest states, below No. 47 West Virginia, and not too far above No. 50 Mississippi. Countries like Italy, S. Korea, Spain, Portugal and Greece would each rank below Mississippi as the poorest states in the country.

From FEE, here’s a table of our 50 States and a list of EU nations—along with other wealthy nations, like New Zealand, Japan, and the Republic of Korea (and the People’s Republic of China)—and how those nations compare with our States.

Yes, indeed, this is the Europe that the Progressive-Democrats and their Socialist hero Bernie Sanders are so anxious for us to emulate.  Remember this this fall.