The Tax Proposals on Offer

The House has one, and the Senate has one.  The Wall Street Journal, oddly, is making out like the differences between the two are enormous.  Yet, here’s the WSJ‘s own chart illustrating these humongous differences.

The big differences the WSJ singles out are these:

The big ways the Senate version breaks with the House plan: the level of top individual tax rates, the number of individual tax brackets, the timing of a corporate tax-rate cut and the particulars of estate tax changes[.]

How big are these differences, really?  The top level doesn’t even differ by a per centage point, and the number of brackets only differ in how finely income should be subdivided.  The timing of the corporate tax-rate is a matter of a year, again a small difference: put it in place in 6 months, rather than immediately; cut the rate to 27% this year and 20% next; and on and on—even trading this year vs next for something else.  Estate tax changes differ only in repeal or not—in 6 years, a lifetime in politics, a complete Senate election cycle.

Even the differences the paper elides, keeping or eliminating deductions for SALT, medical expenses, and student loan interest, is tiny.  Most folks don’t itemize, which is the only place these deductions even exist, and with the standard deduction doubled all around (personally, rather than a single/married standard deduction, I’d rather see the standard deduction keyed to the then-current year Federal Poverty Guideline, but that’s a trivial difference at present, too) and lowered personal income tax rates, the value of those deductions shrinks even further, especially for those who still would itemize.

No, the two versions blatantly, firmly, agree on the principles and the degree to which those principles should be satisfied in the tax reform effort underway.  They differ on numbers and timing—all small things that are easily resolved, except to the extent the Republican Snowflake Three in the Senate get in the way and to the extent the My Way of the Highway collection of House members let their egos get in the way.

It’s Not Your Money—It’s Ours!

That’s the attitude of the European Union political elite—especially the ones in charge.  In truth, the attitude isn’t unique to them; we have a similar problem, no less damaging to our economy and individual prosperity.

Documents cited by German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung on Monday suggested that offshore law firm Appleby, which is based in multiple tax havens, helped the iPhone maker [Apple, Inc] move billions of dollars in revenues collected in Ireland to the Channel Islands to head off increased European Union scrutiny of its tax affairs in Dublin.

This isn’t tax avoidance, though, this is just a legitimate attempt by a business to keep what it’s earned.

On the contrary, “Just quit arguing, and give us your income,” says the EU; “We’ll take what we think is appropriate, and we’ll leave you with what we think you need.”

The money grab effort doesn’t get any more blatant than this recommendation by Gabriel Zucman, an Assistant Professor of Economics at UC Berkeley, beginning with his insistence on taxing more, not less:

The incentives to shift profits out of Germany are high, because the corporate tax rate is relatively high – around 30% when you take municipal taxes into account.

But this does not imply that Germany should cut its rate. Instead, it should tax multinational companies differently….

Because some companies are more equal than others.  So, how differently?

[B]y apportioning…global profits proportionally to where they make their sales. So if Apple makes $100 billion in profits globally and 10% of its sales are made in Germany, 10% of its global profits would be taxable in Germany.

Gimme, gimme, gimme.

Tax Reform and SALT

There are, unfortunately, some Republican Congressmen who don’t get it.  One such is Congresswoman Claudia Tenney (R, NY).

I worry about the way this bill erodes the deduction for state and local taxes, which has been in place since 1913.  …  This would compound the already excruciating financial burden that my state’s lawmakers have placed on New Yorkers.

How long the deduction has been in place is only an indication of the age of the error, nothing else.

More importantly, the decision of New York’s politicians to have such a usurious State tax code in no way obligates the rest of us to support the foolishness of SALT. If New York politicians—including Tenney—and those of other high-tax States truly are worried about the fiscal welfare of their citizens, they’d work to reform their State’s tax code and reduce their State’s tax rates and thereby allow their State’s citizens to keep more of their money.

At the Federal level, politicians like Tenney would work to reduce—even eliminate—Federal transfers of the hard-earned funds of one State’s citizens to another State absent a regional or national emergency. New York, for instance, sends more of its citizens’ money to other States than it receives from other States’ citizens; such a reform would seem highly attractive to the State’s politicians.

Federal Tax Reform and SALT

Included in the Federal tax reform plan now on offer is the elimination of the deduction for State And Local Taxes (primarily income and sales taxes; property taxes would remain deductible up to a cap).  Republican Congressmen from high-SALT States object to that elimination, and they base their objection on the premise that these high-tax States actually send more of their States’ citizens’ money to DC than they get back from DC in other funds.

That seems a fair beef to the extent that it’s accurate, which raises a question in my pea brain.

What are these Congressmen proposing in the way of tax reform and spending reform to reduce the amount of their constituents’ money—and the money of all States’ citizens—that gets sent to DC?  Surely, they can think of ways to reduce such regional redistributions (they are Republicans, after all), or even eliminate them absent a national or regional emergency.

These Congressmen’s silence on that bit strongly suggests that their objections are not principled, but simply personal power and ego stroking.

Tax Cuts and Business Planning

Some large businesses are claiming that, rather than being good for job growth, the tax reform plan currently on offer in outline form would be good for investors.

As if these are mutually exclusive outcomes.

The chief executive of Honeywell International, Darius Adamczyk, said tax reform will “offer greater flexibility for Honeywell,” adding that the industrial conglomerate would invest more cash in the United States to pay for dividends, mergers and acquisitions, share buybacks and paying down debt.

Amgen CEO Robert Bradway said on Wednesday any tax reform would be incorporated into its capital allocation plans, noting the drugmaker expects to continue to raise its dividend and buy back shares.

However (there’s almost always a however).

Greater flexibility is always a good thing for business, especially in contrast to government fetters telling a business (or pressuring one through, say, a tax code) what its investments ought to be, what its products ought to do, how it ought to produce its goods and services.

Investing more cash in dividends is good for the stereotypical widows and orphans—folks who live on fixed income sources and who have been hammered by the last eight or more years of government-suppressed interest rates.  Dividends also are a way of attracting investors—which is cash for the business.

M&A are a way (not the only way) businesses can grow, increase efficiency, achieve greater economy through greater scale.  Which adds up to lower prices for consumers and greater demand for the product.  Achieving functional monopoly (or oligopoly—monopoly by a few) power and abusing it?  There’s a law for that.

Share buybacks?  Those are a wash, with no economic effect good or bad—for the company or anyone else.

Paying down debt?  That’s always good.  It gets a monkey of too much debt off the business’ back, reducing its cost of money when it needs to borrow again.  Or pay existing dividends.  Or otherwise increase the business’ flexibility.

All of which is good for job growth, even in if it might not increase hiring on the instant of, say, a significant corporate tax reduction.  Good for investors means good for businesses.  Increased flexibility means good for business.  Increased efficiency, lowered price to consumers, increased consumer demand means good for business.  And that means the business grows and hires.

And, yes, there will be relatively prompt increases in hiring, also.  That’s more of that flexibility: businesses won’t put all of their eggs in one basket, if they’re (allowed by government to be) flexible.  They won’t be any more likely to put all of their tax cut into dividends or share buybacks than they would be to use it all for hiring.  And I haven’t even mentioned committing some of that tax cut to increased R&D, which produces more and better products, which increases demand for output, which facilitates growth—which leads to increased hiring.

But, but….

The situation could be a replay of the massive 2004 repatriation “holiday” under President George W Bush, in which 843 US-based multinationals brought back $362 billion in overseas profits at a deeply slashed tax rate of 5.25%.

Most of that money went to stock buybacks and dividend increases.

This is a non sequitur.  The tax reform on offer isn’t a holiday, a one-time event.  What’s on offer is permanent, so actual long-term planning will be able to be done, and the funds more efficiently allocated for the long game.

The Reuters piece at the link didn’t discuss the other major aspect of the proposed tax reform, the tax rate cuts and general reform from the individual taxpayer perspective.  Those rate cuts and reforms represent more money in the hands of taxpayers.  That means more stuff getting bought and more money being saved and more money being invested by those individual taxpayers (often referred to as retail investors, because the vast majority of us are not institutional or professional investors).

Greater demand by individuals means more production by business.  More money being saved means more money in the banks’ hands to lend to businesses and individuals—which means business expansion, more houses being bought, and on and on.  More investment by us retail investors means more money in business hands to fuel R&D, production, expansion.

And all of that means a growing economy and increased jobs.

“Good for investors” and job growth, far from being mutually exclusive, are mutually supportive.