Category Archives: Economics

Miscellaneous economy stuff

I Wonder

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The ECB raised its baseline interest rate earlier this week, doing so, it said, in response to the jump in energy prices, which has driven inflation above 3% in the eurozone. Inflation in the rest of the economy—and it’s the same in the US and in the rest of the OECD-esque economies—remains largely muted and under control except to the extent energy costs percolate through them, impacting personal and commercial transportation and shipping, food production, manufacturing, and so on. It’s energy inflation that’s at the core of inflation in today’s overall economy, not a broad excess demand or supply deficiency.

So, I wonder.

When a central bank raises its baseline interest rate, it’s using, if not a cudgel, at least a two-handed sword to address a problem. That’s appropriate, when the problem is broad. But if the problem is narrow, a dagger would seem more appropriate (to continue the metaphor, or perhaps a scalpel, to soften the imagery a little).

Today’s inflationary problem seems narrow, for all its broad effect. It’s energy that’s causing the overall inflation. If raising interest rates is the way to combat inflation, what if a central bank were to raise interest rates only on basic energy production—oil, natural gas, and coal at their input stage, and solar and wind facilities at their component manufacture stage—while leaving its otherwise baseline interest rate unchanged for the rest of the economy?

Clearly that would take some restructuring of its baseline interest control, separating out energy from the rest of an economy. That might demand legislative support. But there’s no reason a farmer should have to pay a higher interest to borrow to get his seed for next year, when it’s core energy that is impacting the cost of his money and not a shortage of seed or a flood of farmers into the market for that seed. It’s the same for folks borrowing to buy a house or car and for those building houses and factories. It’s underlying energy, not a shortage of labor or a spike in buyers, that’s inflating the cost of their money.

On the other hand, raising interest rates on basic energy production would reduce the amount of energy produced. That would lead to reductions in the supply of all the things to which energy is central in their production. The demand for energy is pretty inelastic in a modern economy—it’s going to be produced, within broad limits, regardless of price, and that price increase still is going to percolate through an economy.

So I wonder (still I wonder). It seems to me that targeting the inputs to energy production—crude oil, natural gas coming out of the well, coal leaving the mine, metals arriving at the solar panel or windmill factory while leaving rates on the rest of an economy alone would reduce inflation growth in the rest of the economy while limiting supply deficiencies more than does raising interest rates all across an economy.

The Cost of Ethanol-laced Gasoline

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A number of corn State Senators, Chuck Grassley (R, IA), Joni Ernst (R, IA), Deb Fischer (R, NE), Pete Ricketts (R, NE) and Roger Marshall (R, KS), have written about the financial benefits of ethanol in our gasoline.

Expanding E15 availability lowers gas prices by 20 to 40 cents per gallon on average.

Compared to what, though? See below.

And

E15 is a net positive. We know E15 will lower prices at the pump….

Again, compared to what?

I won’t go into the production costs of cars whose fuel-related seals must be designed to handle the corrosive nature of ethanol, nor will I address the maintenance costs of cars burning ethanol-laced fuels, even with those corrosion-resistant (but only resistant) seals, nor why the percentage of ethanol in gasoline tops out at 15% before ethanol’s corrosive nature overwhelms even these toughened up seals.

I won’t mention, either, the increase in the cost of food, including meat, from the diversion of corn away from the grocery store or the production of animal feed toward the production of ethanol. I’m only going to mention the immediate fiscal costs to the consumer of ethanol-laced gasoline, taking corn-based ethanol, corn being the primary source today for ethanol production, as my illustration.

It costs $1.74 in 2001 currencyto produce a gallon of ethanol from corn, and it costs 95 cents to produce a gallon of gasoline.

A gallon of E15 gasoline consists of 85% gasoline, and 15% ethanol. According to my 3rd grade arithmetic, the costs embodied in that gallon are 85% of $0.95 plus 15% of $1.74, or a skosh under $0.81 plus a skosh over $0.26. That’s $1.07 per gallon of the hybrid fuel. Using my 3rd grade arithmetic again, that’s $0.12 per gallon more than for unadulterated, and much easier on the car, gasoline.

That’s not cheaper fuel for our cars; it’s much more expensive. Those Senators bragged that

Expanding E15 availability lowers gas prices by 20 to 40 cents per gallon on average. That could mean around $400 per year in savings for a US household—precious dollars that could be spent on other needs.

The irony in that isn’t lost on me, even if it seems lost on those Senators. Instead of those 30 cents per gallon (to take the middle of their range) in ethanol-laced gasoline, not having to spend that baseline of 12 cents extra per gallon at all, all year long, would save roughly $160 per US household—precious dollars that could be spent on other needs, like food, including meat, made cheaper by no longer diverting corn to making alcohol. (OK, a little mention.)

Tradeoffs

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We, as a nation, have three questions that we must answer in order to proceed optimally into the future, according to Matthew Slaughter, of Dartmouth‘s Tuck School of Business, and David Wessel, of Brookings‘ Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy. They’re largely correct, but they miss one Critical Item without which our path into a prosperous and growing future would be severely constrained, if not blocked altogether.

In their question regarding “walls or bridges,” the two argue against walls—tariffs—and for trade globalization as the path to prosperity via competition and its heavily encouraged innovation rates that such free trade creates.

[R]esearch has long shown that globally engaged companies tend to create the good jobs at good wages for which so many Americans are yearning. In 2023, the US parent companies of US-based multinational companies paid their 29.9 million workers in America an average total compensation of $97,078—about 20% above the average in the rest of the private sector.

They didn’t address, though, the downside of their largely unfettered free trade regime. That downside was amply illustrated by the recent Wuhan Virus situation, during which our dependence on the People’s Republic of China’s medicines—and not just for Virus medical supplies, but also for over the counter pain killers and anti-inflammatories, even a variety of flu medicines—was exposed, along with the world’s dependence on the PRC even for simple things like face masks.

The downside was graphically demonstrated much more recently by the PRC’s control over rare earths, from ore through processed rare earths to finished products, and its use of that control to throttle their export and thereby threaten our economy and that of Japan’s.

The Critical Item is this tradeoff. Carry out free trade globalization; it is valuable, but do it within this framework. There are a few items that are critical to our national security and to our economy (there is a lot of overlap between them): those rare earths, the raw materials for medicines. For these, we need to have our own supply paths, wholly contained within our borders, that stretch from dirt in the ground through final product deliverable to the domestic end user. These nationally-contained supply lines need not be the only sources for these materials; it’d be sufficient for them to be in place, actively used, and able to be rapidly expanded during periods when overseas sources become constrained.

That tradeoff will be expensive, but that cost is simply—and necessarily—a cost of maintaining our national security, our ability to defend ourselves, whether militarily or economically. The cost of being unable to will be far greater, and not only fiscally.

Yet Another Reason

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The European Union is moving toward passing legislation that would allow it to curb imports of heavily subsidized foreign products. The legislation doesn’t single out any particular nation; although, the Peoples’s Republic of China is infamous for such subsidies.

Those subsidies allow PRC businesses to sell their products at less than their cost of production in order to sell at lower prices than European businesses can due to their own, unsubsidized, costs of production. That allows the PRC to put those businesses out of business and to seize nearly all of the market share. In the aggregate, this cascades into steadily increasing PRC influence over European economies.

Naturally, the PRC wants to continue this domination, so it’s threatening countermeasures if Europe continues with the impudence of defending itself.

Chinese authorities could initiate anti-discrimination and supply-chain security investigations into the EU’s “overcapacity instrument,” a social media account run by China’s state broadcaster said Friday, citing unnamed sources.
If the EU advances the tool, China will take immediate action and deploy comprehensive countermeasures, it added.

Of course, that retaliation wouldn’t matter if Europe’s nations were doing no business with the PRC or with businesses domiciled there.

The PRC keeps providing reasons for discontinuing business with or within it. It’s time for the EU and for Europe’s nations individually to act on at least some of those reasons, for their own economic survival.

Why Would Anyone Want To?

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New York’s legislature has passed the Mamdani Pied-a-Terre tax; it’s the Progressive-Democratic Party’s latest attack on those Evil Rich.

The pied-à-terre tax, which was passed on Wednesday as part of the state’s budget, takes aim at second homes valued at $5 million or more and is expected to generate as much as $500 million annually in new revenue. It goes into effect July 1 and could add hundreds of thousands of dollars each year to the tax bills of some high-end condo owners.

New York City imposes some of the nation’s highest taxes on people and businesses domiciled there; now it’s going after those only resident there (I’d hardly call it living there) part time.

I wonder: why would anyone with the fiscal wherewithal to leave want to stay in NYC, much less be there even parttime? It’s rapidly losing its status as the financial center, with areas like Dallas and San Antonio growing in that industry, even places like San Francisco and Chicago supplanting various aspects of financial-ness. Regarding cultural attractions, those in DC and, yes, Dallas again, along with San Antonio and Austin, and San Fran, again, and Chicago have attractions to rival anything in NYC.

To the extent folks want to be in the city parttime, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts all are right nearby as places to hang a hat; they’re each easy enough commutes into town.

A bottom, though, why maintain even a sometime abode in a city that hates you so much, whose ultimate idea of “fair share” is all you got?