Alex Flint and Kalee Kreider, posing as pro-climate adapters rather than as climate mitigators, want us to move toward adapting to our changing climate rather than attempting to mitigate our climate’s changes. That would seem to be a step in the right direction.
However.
Around the world, people are giving priority to higher living standards, economic security, and access to affordable energy above a stable climate.
This is a false dichotomy, leading to their false premise. In truth, we do have a stable climate—stable over human-level time frames—and we have it in conjunction with the potential for higher living standards, economic security, and access to affordable energy. These are not mutually exclusive.
For one thing, the plain fact is that our climate is stable over generations of humans, and that flows from the equally plain geologic fact that our climate is warming predictably, if noisily over thousands- to multi-million year cycles.
Since the end of the last glaciation, some 11,000 years ago, our climate has varied over narrow temperature ranges from the warming period that roughly coincides with the rise of human civilization and persisted into the period of the Roman empire to the Little Ice Age that ran from the early 14th century into the early 19th century. That variability, too, leaves us today still a couple degrees cooler than the geologic warming rate of our planet.
The other thing is that geologic warming rate. Our climate has been warming since the earth formed and stabilized as a solid body because our sun has been warming since it coalesced gravitationally and lit off its core fusion furnace. That warming is governed cyclically by our planet’s not quite circular orbit around the sun, which moves us closer and farther from the sun—not by much but by measurable temperature effects—on a cycle that harmonizes with our planet’s rotational axis precession, a cycle that points our norther hemisphere toward our sun in some seasons and away from our sun in the six months later seasons, a precession that points our northern hemisphere toward the sun in summer, roughly 6,500 years later has our northern hemisphere pointing away from the sun in summer, then after another 6,500 years points it back toward the sun in summer again for a complete cycle of about 13,000 years. That precessional cycle harmonizes with our orbit’s behavior over some hundreds of thousands of years.
Around that lockstep cycling, our climate varies noisily from the presence of an atmosphere that maintains a more stable temperature across days and months—and centuries—while being intermittently impacted by volcanism and meteor strikes. The outcome of those orbital and rotational mechanics and the interactions of volcanism and meteor strikes has produced the geological record of epochs much warmer and colder than today with life being lush in the warm periods, along with epochs of atmospheric CO2 being much higher and much lower than today, with life being lush in both higher and lower CO2 epochs—life has been lush when it was warmer independently of CO2 concentrations with no correlation between the CO2 epochs and the warmer and cooler epochs.
Mitigation always has been a scam to draw Federal funding for pet research projects.
Even though this op-ed’s excuse for shifting to adaptation comes from that false premise, it’s still a welcome step toward economic prosperity and sanity.