Cowed by the PRC?

Canberra confirmed last week that the Australian Navy won’t conduct freedom-of-navigation patrols in the international waters of the South China Sea, giving China’s bid to dominate the strategic area a boost.

And

An international tribunal ruled in July that China’s bid to claim most of the sea violates international law. But the verdict will be rendered moot unless law-abiding states are willing to push back. That would give Beijing effective control over the 60% of Australian trade that transits the sea.

However, Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Foreign Minister Julie Bishop appear to have gotten their marching orders from PRC President Xi Jinping and Wang Yi.  Embarrassingly (did Turnbull have the grace for embarrassment), Turnbull has decried opposition to this acquiescence as “highly political,” and a measure of “immaturity and unreadiness to take responsibility for these issues.”  Bishop is terrified that enforcing freedom of navigation imperatives—even international law—would “escalate tensions.”

You bet the matter is highly political, Turnbull.  Enforcing international law—or surrendering the rights involved to the biggest bully—is purely political.  In what venue would you place it otherwise?  Your inability to understand that, or your timidity in acting on an accurate understanding, marks your own political immaturity and unreadiness.

Escalating tensions?  The PRC is already doing that with its seizure and occupation of the South China Sea, and it’s actively pressing its advantage gained from your backing away from tension.

You guys used to be made of sterner stuff.  What happened to the Australian government that faced down a rampant Japan on your doorstep just 75 years ago?

Or are you thinking you have no support from the US, which already is in retreat before the PRC?  That, at least, would have a ring of shameful truth to it.

Taking Orders?

Is that what Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is doing with his just-acquired colonial master?  Or is this just another outcome from President Barack Obama’s (D) trailing along leading from behind?

The Philippine defense chief said Friday that he had suspended participation in any joint patrols with the US of the disputed South China Sea, the first concrete sign of a crack in the military alliance following the election of President Rodrigo Duterte.

Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana also said he also would ask a small detachment of American troops providing counterterrorism assistance on the southern island of Mindanao to leave as the president requested.

That last comes with Duterte’s proviso that our troops would not be asked to leave until the Philippine military can carry out its own counterterrorism operations.  That’s a judgment, though, that Duterte can make at any time.  Or when the PRC is ready to make its next move vis-à-vis the Philippines and leading us from the region.

Duterte’s rationale for halting the joint patrols is a reflection of the PRC’s growing influence over him:

Mr Duterte has said he wanted the patrols halted to avoid antagonizing Beijing….

Indeed.

What Are You Going To Do?

President Barack Obama (D) has (finally) decided to identify publicly the Russian government as being behind Democratic Party associated email systems and as attempting to interfere with our elections,

The intelligence agencies, in a joint statement, alleged the hacks were directed by the most senior officials in the Russian government.

“We believe, based on the scope and sensitivity of these efforts, that only Russia’s senior-most officials could have authorized these activities,” the statement said.

Now that you’ve said that through the intelligence community, what are you going to do about it, Mr Obama?  What concrete actions is the United States going to take in response to these provocations?  Besides more of your idle chit chat, I mean.

An administration official said the US government could activate numerous measures in response to the alleged Russian operation, including diplomatic and economic steps as well as criminal charges.

So, we’ll stop talking to the Russians about this, like we did over their Syrian activities?  They’ll really be bothered by that.  Sure.

Criminal charges?  Do you seriously expect Russia to extradite their miscreants for trial here in their enemy’s jurisdiction?

Economic sanctions?  How well has that worked in getting Russia out of Ukraine and Georgia?  How well did that work in stopping the Russians from moving nuclear missiles into Kaliningrad?

As I said, besides your idle chit chat, what are you going to do?

Missile Defense Systems

President Barack Obama (D)…acquiesced…to Russian demands that we not deploy missile defense systems in eastern and southeastern Europe to counter intermediate range ballistic missiles that rogue nations, like Iran, might launch against our friends and allies.

Now Russia has deployed a modern missile system in Syria.  This isn’t the S-300 system the Russians sold Iran, though, ostensibly to defend against an air attack (against what in Iran? I’ll leave that as an exercise for the student).

No, this is Russia’s SA-23 missile system.  While it’s a variant of the S-300, this system is optimized for defense against short and intermediate range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.  The system also is capable of launching smaller anti-aircraft missiles.  (Who in that fight has an air force against which to be defended?)

This SA-23 deployment came as Russian President Vladimir Putin “advised” Obama not to do anything foolish, else there’d be “tectonic consequences” for us.

Obama has chosen to remain silent on the matter.

There’s timidity, and there’s timidity.

Tough Guys, and Tough Guys

A year of Russian airstrikes on areas outside government control in Syria have killed more than 9,000 people, displaced tens of thousands and caused wide destruction, [the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights] said Friday.

And in response to the latest cease fire, the Russians have intensified their bombing of civilians and children in Aleppo to support al Assad’s offensive to recapture the city.

The Obama administration asked—very nicely, mind you—Russian President Vladimir to cut that out.  Putin said, “No.”

The ensuing response of John “Motorboat Skipper” Kerry, the guy who sits in the Secretary of State’s chair?  “Maybe I won’t talk to you anymore.”

Very firm.