Government Investment Nanny

The Federal government regulates who it will permit to invest in private investments—startups, pre-IPO opportunities, loans to private companies, and the like. These are highly risky investments, and they have high payoff possibilities, even if those possibilities are low. The Feds limit those who it permits into these private opportunities to folks with $1 million in net assets, not including their primary home residence, or at least $200,000 in yearly income, or $300,000 for a joint household.

Now there’s a move afoot to add a government-regulated glorified intelligence test as an alternative path for investors to make these investments.

A group of lawmakers has proposed legislation that would allow any investor capable of passing an exam to buy private securities—an array of investments like shares in pre-IPO startups or loans to private companies that are considered riskier because they have looser disclosure rules than public securities and can be harder, and sometimes impossible, to sell in a pinch.

Passing an exam as a prerequisite to being allowed to invest in a class of securities—passing an exam as a prerequisite to being allowed to vote in an election. That Jim Crow era requirement has long since been done away with. Except now Congressmen want to revive the practice for investing.

Private securities—meaning outside the scope of government regulation. This is something far too many politicians can’t stand; it limits their power to dictate to us; it limits their power, period.

The idea is that the ability to make these high-risk, high-reward bets should be open to all sophisticated investors, not just those with the biggest bank accounts.

Of course the definition of who’s sufficiently sophisticated, the definition of “sophisticated” itself is carefully left to government personages.

Patrick Woodall, Americans for Financial Reform‘s Managing Director for Policy (AFR is vehemently pushing for even more government regulation of our financial decisions):

Knowledge cannot protect people from the potential losses if they invest in risky, opaque, and illiquid, private offerings[.]

Neither can government. Nor should government try. The decision to run those risks are ours alone.

This is nanny-state-ism intruding into us private citizens’ own affairs far beyond regulation of public company-related investments. Companies are private rather than publicly owned explicitly to get out from under the government’s thumb, and citizens invest here—or would if we could—explicitly to stay out from under the government’s thumb—especially when that thumb operates, according to government, for our own good.

No.

We average Americans do not need government protections from ourselves. We are fully capable of making our own decisions, and we are fully capable of handling, and fully and responsible for, the outcomes of our decisions. We are not wards of the state, much as one of our major political parties is bent on reducing us to that condition.

Who’s in Charge in Arizona?

Arizona citizens will be voting this fall on a ballot measure that would

require legislative approval for any regulation that the state Office of Economic Opportunity projects would impose costs of $500,000 or more over a five-year period. Lawmakers or anyone subject to the proposed rule could request a cost estimate. If lawmakers failed to ratify the rule before the end of the legislative session, the promulgating state agency would have to issue a notice of termination.

That seems entirely reasonable, restricting as it does unelected bureaucrats in unelected “independent” State agencies from acting on their own recognizance to limit citizen activities.

However.

Republicans hold a majority in the Arizona House and Senate and this year passed a bill to require legislative approval for costly regulations. Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs vetoed it, claiming such a check “would create an unnecessary burden on state agencies that would inhibit their ability to carry out duties in a timely manner.”

And

Two Arizona Sierra Club chapters betray what opponents fear when they claim Prop. 315 “undermines the autonomy of state agencies.”

The Sierra Club chapters’ managers have said the quiet part out loud.

This is the Progressive-Democrat and her Leftist…supporters…insisting that the citizenry exist to give government agencies something to do; those agencies aren’t at all beholden to the State’s citizens or their elected representatives.

As the WSJ editors put it in the link above, The issue is who decides—elected officials, or unelected regulators? Or perhaps those regulators favored by Progressive-Democrat politicians?
The Know Betters in Arizona’s governor’s office have answered that plainly. The citizens of Arizona need to apply their answer in a couple of weeks, loudly and clearly.

A Subsidy

It may be that the People’s Republic of China will start subsidizing mainland Chinese families who have more than one child, to the tune of 800 yuan per child for a family’s second and third children per month. Is that a little, or a lot?

The PRC’s 2024 per capita GDP in nominal terms is a bit over $13,000, which works out to 92,300 yuan, or 7,700 yuan per month. Those 800 yuan are roughly $113.

Using data from just before the Wuhan Virus Situation, per capita household electricity consumption was some 750 kilowatt-hours per month. That consumption cost $0.083 per kilowatt-hour; that works out to roughly 425 yuan per month.

Food consumption cost mainland Chinese roughly $270, or 1,915 yuan per month for a family of three, rising (in a naïve estimate) to $360 per month, or 2,555 yuan for a family upsized to four.

In those broad strokes, it seems that electricity and food consume that subsidy before getting to housing, which already is badly under water, for all that the housing industry may be—may be—turning around.

Given the decision of mainland Chinese families not to have more than one child, even after the murderously enforced one-child edict was lifted, this likely won’t increase family size in the PRC. And that’s separate from the editors’ note that child subsidies have never worked anywhere.

It’s Not Only That

The Wall Street Journal notes that the Federal Reserve says it makes its determinations based on what the data tell it, and then the WSJ notes that the Fed has been wildly wrong lately and lays that off to data volatility. The failures, it seems, are in the Fed’s data dependency.

The Fed says it sets policy based on incoming data, especially on inflation and jobs. And those data have been both unreliable and far more volatile than usual….

The WSJ then provides its definition of data dependency:

“[D]ata dependency” has come to mean looking only at recent data, ignoring projections for the effects of interest rates on the economy in future.

The problems with this definition are two. In the first place, projections of the future are just guesses, even if somewhat informed by current data. As a great 20th century American philosopher understood, it’s tough to make projections, especially into the future.

The other problem is that this definition of data dependency wholly ignores realized, empirical data: those that have occurred before “recent.” Decent data reliance requires those past data be included, even if as estimates of the underlying trend through that empirical past into “today” (and some little way into the future).

A Determination to Create Dependency

The Progressive-Democrat-run government of California has placed on its November ballot a proposal to require a State-wide minimum wage of $18 per hour. The Wall Street Journal editors provide some data, citing a Beacon Economics study.

  • 90% of the 130,000 newly unemployed in California during the past two years were under age 35
  • Between the first quarters of 2022 and 2024, unemployment among those ages 16 to 19 increased to 19.2% from 10.8% in California, versus 11.9% from 10.5% nationwide
  • Unemployment among those 20 to 24 years old also ticked up 1.3 percentage points in California, while declining 0.7 percentage points nationwide
  • unemployment averaged 3.2% in the 20 states that followed the federal minimum wage compared to 4.1% in the 15 with minimums between $14 and $17
  • fast-food employment in California has declined 3.2% over the last five months while increasing 3.6% nationwide
  • fast-food prices in California increased 3.7% after the higher minimum took effect in April

The editors asked a question: Are they trying to keep teens out of work? It’s far broader than that.

Where do these unemployed go? To Government for early on unemployment insurance and for long-trm welfare payments. The youth—those 16-19 years old and 20-24 years old—who start out dependent on Government for handouts have very little hope of breaking that dependency; it’s hard enough for adults who’ve been and are being priced out of low-skill jobs. Especially in an economic environment so riddled with these Progressive-Democrat policies.

That dependency on government, though, is votes for that government’s incumbents and preservation of those incumbents’ power.