Two Questions…

that answer themselves.

Can the US and its allies deter all these rivals—including Iran and North Korea—at the same time, given the decay in the West’s military-industrial base and the unwillingness of voters to spend dramatically more on defense?

Of course we can, and the path to that is in that last bit: spending more on defense (while keeping in mind that a Critical Item for defense is a strong offense) and refurbishing our military-industrial base. Convincing us average Americans to spend more on defense is simpler and more straightforward than it apparently seems to the journalist crowd. It’s necessary and simple to explain the nature and depth of the threat posed by our four primary enemies, listed in my order of risk: Russia and the People’s Republic of China tied at the top; the one as demonstrated by its active shooting war of invasion and steady threats to continue west if its current land grab is successful. The other because of its active invasion and occupation of the South China Sea, seizing territory owned by other nations around the rim of the Sea and controlling sea lines of commerce that are critical to Japan and the Republic of Korea and extremely important to us, its increasing threats to invade and conquer the Republic of China, and the cyber war it’s already inflicting on us.

In third place is Iran, with its near production of nuclear weapons, which it will use promptly to destroy Israel and then shop to its terrorist surrogates and to any others who’ll have the purchase money. This nation already shops its conventional weapons—at heavily discounted prices—to its surrogates attacking Israel and commercial shipping on the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea.

A distant fourth is northern Korea, whose rhetoric makes them worth watching carefully along with shoring up RoK’s and Japan’s defenses and our own in the northern and western Pacific, but not much more than that.

And then it’s necessary and simple, except for those politicians of both parties, to reallocate spending away from the billions of froo-froo already in the budget and toward the defense establishment. The only really hard part (and we all know what “hard” means) is getting rid of the deadwood, both civilian and in uniform, in the Pentagon and streamlining development and acquisition.

For our allies, it’s slightly more complicated (but only slightly). If they don’t want to spend more on defending themselves—especially in Europe and particularly those European NATO members who already are betraying their fellow members with their sloth—then it will be time to stand up a separate mutual defense arrangement among the US, the Three Seas Initiative nations, and Great Britain (for starters), and then walk away from NATO altogether.

And

And if not, should, and could, an accommodation be sought with one of the rival great powers? If so, which one—and at what cost?

There can be no accommodation with enemy nations whose solemn goal, often stated, is to conquer us. This is the goal of Russia and the PRC. Nor can there be an accommodation with an enemy nation whose oft-stated goal is to destroy Israel and then us. An accommodation with northern Korea is almost irrelevant, and wholly unnecessary—just do the watching and regional plussing up.

The cost of accommodating nations with those goals should be obvious—such a step would only be a step closer to their goals for those enemies. Too, that would only be the first step of a short path to our functional destruction: having accommodated our enemies once, they’ll only seek a further accommodation, and then another, then…, until we’re no longer capable of effective self defense.

Starliner and Dragon

NASA has decided to bring Boeing’s allegedly passenger-rated capsule Starliner (so characterized by me because the thing is so robotic, its “crew” are merely passengers with extremely limited authority even to vet the robot’s decisions) back to the surface and leave the passengers it brought to the ISS on the ISS to await a flight next winter by SpaceX’s Dragon, running up there on one of SpaceX’s reusable rockets.

We’ll see if the robot, whose thrusters often malfunction (“often” in the context of rocket flight where a couple of mistakes, or even just one, kills the crew), can make it back to the surface in one piece. Oh, and remain in that one piece, undamaged, when it regains contact with that surface.

The two Boeing crewmen will remain on the ISS until February when SpaceX is scheduled to send its Dragon up with a new load of supplies for the station. That resupply mission, though, has had to be rejiggered: it will fly with only two crewmen in order to have room for the two Boeing crewmen on the ride back down.

Which gives me an idea.

SpaceX should accelerate its schedule for refurbishing and preparing for (re)launch its Falcon rockets and Dragon capsules, and get a Falcon/Dragon mission configured and ready to go by the end of September. Then petition NASA and the FAA for licensure to launch. Put the onus for quick reaction back on the government, and show Boeing how it’s done. And show the Boeing/Lockheed-Martin’s ULA how it’s done with reusable rockets.

Come to that, I challenge Elon Musk to do that. It would be more than a one-up feather in Musk’s and SpaceX’s cap, and it would be more than a demonstration of the advantages private enterprise has over quasi-private enterprise partnered with government—in which each partner has captured the other, limiting both.

No, doing so would be a demonstration of the near-emergency capability of SpaceX to get a mission launched under the tight time constraints of an in-orbit emergency.