Deflationary Pressure in the PRC

A quick note. As The Wall Street Journal writes, the People’s Republic of China is facing the threat of economic deflation.

Prices charged by Chinese factories that make products ranging from steel to cement to chemicals have been falling for months. Consumer prices, meanwhile, have gone flat, with prices for certain goods—including sugar, eggs, clothes, and household appliances—now falling on a month-over-month basis amid weak demand.

There are a number of causes for the nation’s falling prices, including to some extent, the deflationary pressures being relative to the inflation spike that the PRC experienced as the world came out of the economic dislocation the Wuhan Virus Situation engendered.

However, there’s another factor—a critical one IMNSHO—that pushes for deflation in the PRC. That factor is the nation’s shrinking population. With fewer people even available to buy things, demand necessarily must fall, and if the supply of goods and services doesn’t fall commensurately, prices will come down. If those prices already are flat, or falling, then they’ll only fall further. With that lessened demand, the only way producers can stay in business is to reduce production—to reduce payroll costs, either by reducing pay, laying off workers, or some combination of the two. That reduced income will drive further reductions in demand.

Deflation sets in, and it deepens.

The Quiet Part…

…out loud, to coin a hackneyed, but cogent, phrase.

On the matter of Federal government industrial farm policy, the Biden administration has made itself crystalline. This is the backdrop:

In January 1994, the North American Free Trade Agreement went into effect, followed by other trade pacts, which significantly increased commercial opportunities for American farmers. Those arrangements have borne great fruit: US agriculture exports stood at $196 billion in 2022, up from $62.8 billion in 1997.

President Joe Biden’s (D) National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, doesn’t like that, but in a recent speech, Sullivan went even more broad than just NAFTA, to openly disparage the general policy environment surrounding the development of that treaty. Sullivan lamented that this era of policy was one that

championed tax cutting and deregulation, privatization over public action, and trade liberalization as an end in itself.

Because leaving more money in the hands of us ordinary citizens by taking less of it as taxes, by reducing our cost of doing business by getting regulations out of our way, is inherently bad, says this maven of the Progressive-Democratic Party. Even more: public action must take precedence over private action—because, apparently, Government Knows Better than us ignorant ordinary citizens. And trade liberalization, which further reduces our costs, is a bad end in itself.

This demand that Government must control what our private enterprises produce is a well-understood and textbook…ideology…regarding the importance of government control over our lives. And it’s a central plank of the Progressive-Democratic Party platform.