Daily Archives: 2 September 2021

Debt Ceilings and Spend-Thriftiness

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One hundred and three House Republicans have signed a letter committing themselves to never vote for a debt ceiling increase under any circumstances. Forty-six Senate Republicans have signed a substantially similar letter.  (Aside: the nine Republican Representatives and four Republican Senators should be asked why they’re not signing on.) The signatories

will not vote to increase the debt ceiling, whether that increase comes through a stand-alone bill, a continuing resolution, or any other vehicle.

Of course, Congressional Progressive-Democrats are in a snit over that. Their beef centers, amorally, on “You guys are spendthrifts, too!”

They say most of the spending that will cause a breach of the debt limit later this year was passed on a bipartisan basis before President Biden assumed office.
They also note that Republicans significantly increased the deficit when they were in power during the first two years of former President Donald Trump’s term….

True enough. Both parties are guilty of spending American taxpayers’ money like it’s all Modern Monetary Theory’s bottomless bank of monopoly dollars. That, however, is no excuse for continuing the fiscal—and national economic security—folly.

Progressive-Democrats are in control now, with a majority in the House and control of both the Senate and the White House.

Progressive-Democrats have, today and in the coming months, the political capacity to show that they’re not just a bunch of woke virtue signalers and to live the virtue they claim. Today and in the coming months, the Progressive-Democrats can adjust their spending ways to limit themselves to the existing debt ceiling.

Inflation

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The headline screams Fed’s inflation measure soars by most in 30 years. The lede then cries out

The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, accelerated last month by the most on an annual basis in 30 years.

And

Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.6% year over year in July, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the most since 1991.

2020 is an aberrational year, though, with its economic dislocation caused by government fiat rather than by economic forces. All comparisons with 2020 should come with an asterisk.

A better comparison is with 2019, the last year prior to the government’s interference. Core CPE rose only around 2.4% per year compared to those two years ago, according to my third-grade arithmetic and data from FRED (with the graph adjusted to start 2019-01-01), roughly in line with the Fed’s target of 2%.

That’s a rate worth watching, but it’s nothing to get excited over. It’s also the case that, within the current year, month-over-month inflation may be decreasing. It’s too early for this to be taken as a serious trend, but it also bears watching.