Typical

In an ambitious first budget plan, Governor Tom Wolf on Tuesday proposed more than $4 billion in higher taxes on income, sales and natural gas drilling to support new spending on schools and to cut property taxes as part of an effort to overhaul the way public education is funded.

Wolf, a Democrat, is also asking the Republican-controlled Legislature to cut corporate taxes by hundreds of millions of dollars, borrow more than $4 billion to refinance pension debt and inject new money into business loans, clean energy subsidies and water and sewer system projects.

Pennsylvania already is in the hole by some $2 billion, and it’s getting an increase in allegedly mandatory spending, for the upcoming fiscal year, of $1.6 billion.

So he wants to raise taxes overall and to borrow more. Because money grows on trees in the Democratic Orchard.

Wolf’s spending plan would increase overall state spending through the state’s main bank account by about 3% to $29.9 billion from the current year’s approved budget. Counting $1.75 billion in pension obligation payments to the Public School Employees Retirement System and $2.1 billion in school property tax relief receipts, the increase is about 16%….

“Pay” for tax cuts here by raising taxes there. Borrow to cover increased spending. But raise taxes overall, and increase spending. Mandatory spending? No. There is no such thing. Some spending is harder to cut, whether fiscally or morally, than other spending, but none of it is mandatory beyond the bare minimum needed to fund what the state’s constitution—the people’s instructions—mandates is the government’s purpose.

Covering the budget shortfall by cutting spending is anathema. Covering the budget shortfall by also cutting taxes and watching the economy grow from that increase in private sector money, yielding a net increase in revenue to the government, is utterly inconceivable.

How Democratic.

Hardly the End of the World

Just months after the Obama administration cracked down on mergers that helped US companies skirt domestic taxes, a wave of foreign takeovers is steering more tax revenue away from Uncle Sam.

But no one, particularly those on the political Left, has ever bothered to show how steering more tax revenue away from Uncle Sam is such a bad thing. It is, after all, not Uncle Sam’s money, it’s the money of those business’ owners. It’s also not as if Uncle Sam needs the money, other than like an addict needs heroin.

It’s also not as if Uncle Sam’s crack down on tax inversions—wherein a US company acquires or merges with a foreign company and then moves its headquarters to that foreign company’s more favorable tax jurisdiction—is unexpected. No, as Robert Scarborough, Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer LLP Partner, notes,

If you make inversions more difficult, more US companies may simply be acquired[.]

This is an unforeseen consequence that was easily foreseeable.

Still, conspiracy theories aside, the immediate question is, “So what?” It’s not the end of the world that Uncle Sam is losing money that’s not his in the first place. These business’ owners and the managers they hire no better how to use their money, anyway, than Uncle Sam ever can understand.

It’d be better if those folks could use their money here at home, though.

It’s a Start

Senators Mike Lee (R, UT) and Marco Rubio (R, FL) offered a tax reform plan in a Wall Street Journal op-ed earlier this week. It’s a fine start, I think. Highpoints are presented below, together with my comments on improvements that should be added over the succeeding few Congressional sessions (they really shouldn’t need more than this Congress and the next one) to get us to a proper, balanced, and unbiased national tax code.

First, by consolidating the corporate tax system into a single layer and lowering the maximum rate to 25% on both corporate and pass-through entities, our plan eliminates double taxation of capital gains and dividends, and establishes parity among large and small businesses. And under our proposal, firms with overseas operations will no longer be taxed twice (once abroad and again at home), but only in the country where income is actually earned.

This is an excellent first step. However, it’s necessary to keep in mind who actually pays the bulk of a business’ taxes. It’s not the business; it’s the business’ customers, in the form of higher prices, elevated to recoup to the business the bulk of this cost. The corporate tax should be eliminated altogether—not all at once, though, but in graduated steps over the succeeding few years.

Our plan also removes the current bias against capital investment that discourages businesses from investing in their own growth and expansion. So when a business wants to buy new equipment, upgrade its inventory, or make infrastructure improvements, it will immediately be able to deduct 100% of those expenses.

Again, this is a sound initial step. However, to eliminate the “current bias against capital investment” and to eliminate the differing treatments between the sale of debt and the sale of equity as tools for raising capital for a business, these must receive the same tax treatment. And then that tax treatment must disappear altogether in accordance with my comment above.

Eliminating our corporate tax code, in addition to simple fairness, would give American businesses a critical competitive advantage over their foreign competitors. This also would give our economy a critical competitive advantage over our nation’s foreign competitors as we seek to attract foreign businesses to our shores.

We seek to simplify the code and lower rates for families and individuals, by consolidating the seven existing tax brackets into two simple groups—15% and 35%….

Another excellent first step. But to complete the fairness, the remaining two brackets—which still punish success—should be consolidated into a single bracket. If that bracket were a 10% bracket, using 2007 numbers, the Federal government still would see a net increase in revenue of some $600 billion (and this is before the accelerating effects on economic activity are considered under dynamic scoring). All that money, those extra 5 and 25 per centage points, left in taxpayers’ pockets—hmm….

…—and by making remaining deductions available to all filers.

Still another excellent first step, and an overtly fair one, too. However, our tax code should not be used for social engineering. Eliminate all of the deductions and exemptions; apply the tax to all income, regardless of source without preferential treatment of any of it (vis., capital gains and dividends)—perhaps allow an exemption equal to half the then-year Federal Poverty Guideline, since the first tax dollar is so much more important to a poor man than it is even to a middle-class man. But no other distortions to the tax code.

No deductions!? The purpose of those, aside from their social engineering bent, was to lower the tax cost to preferred groups of individuals. At a 10% tax rate, the tax cost is trivial and needs no further reduction, for government-preferred groups or otherwise.

[T]o equalize the tax code’s treatment of working parents, our plan would create a new, $2,500 per-child tax credit. This credit—like the correction of the marriage penalty—eliminates an unfair distortion in the code and helps level the playing field for working families.

Only initially might this prove useful. Countering this hypothetical usefulness, though, is our experience under the old Aid to Dependent Children program (among others), which increased welfare payments to families as they had more children. It turned out that as the government paid families to have more kids, they…had more kids. However, the increased welfare payments didn’t begin to cover the actual costs of having and raising another child; all those payments did was to deepen the families’ dependency on government. $2,500 won’t begin to pay for today’s costs of having and rearing a child, either, though those dollars will risk deepening dependency.

See above re the single bracket and the elimination of deductions and (most) exemptions. After the first year, get rid of this altogether. Or don’t do it at all; the “parent penalty” will disappear, anyway, with enactment my recommended improvements.

Congress should move promptly to begin debate and enactment of the Lee-Rubio plan, and then in the succeeding years, move with similar alacrity to implement the evolutions I’ve described.

Off Ramps

That’s the cool, new buzz phrase. Congressmen John Kline (R, MN), Paul Ryan (R, WI), and Fred Upton (R, MI), Chairmen of the House Education and Workforce Committee, Ways and Means Committee, and Energy and Commerce Committee, respectively, used it Monday in The Wall Street Journal to propose alternatives to Obamacare should the Supreme Court strike down Federal subsidies related to health care coverage plans bought through ObamaMart rather than through the State exchanges that the Obamacare law requires for Federal subsidy eligibility.

In the main, their alternatives are good ones, but there are a couple points with which I wholeheartedly disagree, and it’s disappointing that three men who know better would propose them.

We would allow parents to keep children on their plan until age 26.

That’s fine, but 26-year-olds aren’t children; they’re grown adults. They stopped being children at 18, or 20, or 21 depending on the jurisdiction. They stopped being children when they became eligible to make their own binding decisions on legal documents. Retaining sons and daughters on parents’ plans should be a matter of negotiation between the plan seller and buyer; government shouldn’t be involved in magnanimously granting permission—which carries with it the authority to rescind that permission later.

We would prohibit insurers from imposing lifetime limits on benefits.

This is especially disappointing. This, too, should be a matter of negotiation between the involved parties. Mandating an expense to the company, which this plainly does, forces a cost on the customer. There is a greater cost for paying out over an indefinite lifetime than there is for paying out over a known and fixed interval. Denying the company the option to offer either forces the company to pass on the greater cost to the customer, whether the customer wants that much coverage or not. It’s also an unacceptable denial of market choice to the customer.

[W]e would offer those in the affected states a tax credit to buy insurance.

This comes from the false premise that government should be the default source of welfare, and not the last resort. From that, it jumps the gun: the magnitude of the need is not at all established, especially given the initial fluid market environment that would be created were the competition across state lines part discussed in their op-ed actually passed. Only after private sources of aid have been exhausted, in that stabilized environment of lower basic cost for health plans, should government aid become available. (It’ll also be interesting to see how these guys propose to pay for these tax credits, but perhaps that’s for a later op-ed.)

Who Should Run For What?

Of the Republican candidates, likely and unlikely, for President, who should run for what (I’m ignoring term limits in this little exercise)? I’m also doubling up on some positions because, primaries. Here’s my thumb nailed early list, alphabetically sorted.

Jeb Bush—President

Effective conservative governor. Regardless of his views on Common Core, the race should not be about one issue. Regardless of his views on legalization of illegal immigrants, immigration is a thing that needs to be settled—all three legs. Bush reduced taxes, while balancing Florida’s budgets, by some $19 billion over his time in office. That ain’t peanuts.

Ben Carson—US Senate

Strong Conservative, but he’s not ready for the White House. He wants political seasoning first—as our current President is demonstrating, in spades.

Chris Christie—Governor

Effective governor. He’s not suited for national level politics, though. He, and New Jersey, are better off if he stays home and finishes fixing New Jersey.

Ted Cruz—US Senator

Too polarizing, too much his way or the highway. He’s good for keeping Senate balanced and debating, though.

Carly Fiorina—Vice President

Not ready for the top of the White House; however, she understands and communicates effectively Conservative principles.

Mike Huckabee—Governor

Effective governor, not so effective on the national level. Alternatively, he can go back to being a vocal private citizen commenting on Conservative principles.

Bobby Jindal—President

Effective conservative policies, unafraid of a fight, vastly improved communicator since 2012. He may well not be fully checked out on national level politics, but he’s close enough to take very seriously.

Sarah Palin—US Senate

Strong Conservative, and she would be excellent Senator. She tried for Vice President once; she’s too damaged by McCain’s dysfunctional campaign to have a serious shot at either White House position.

Rand Paul—US Senator

Too polarizing, and his foreign policies views are evolving suspiciously (to my paranoid pea brain). Like Cruz, though, he’s good for keeping Senate balanced and debating.

Rick Perry—Vice President

Effective Conservative governor. I could not love Perry less, loved I not Walker, Jindal, and Bush more. He would be good President, but a President needs a strong Vice President, too. In fact, of these four, any would be good President, any of the other three would be a good Vice President.

Marco Rubio—Vice President

Not ready for the top of the White House, but he knows the Senate; he could elevate the Vice President’s role there very effectively.

Rick Santorum—US Senator

Too socially conservative, occasionally too shrill for national level success.

Donald Trump—Chairman, Sit Down and Shut Up Committee

Country needs an effective man/woman, not an egotistical blowhard. Considering egotistical blowhards, Trump is indistinguishable from Barack Obama.

Scott Walker—President

Strong Conservative, successful Conservative governor. Not afraid of a fight with the Left, knows how to win those fights.