A PRC Anschluss

Here is one Critical Item in Xi Jinping’s rationale for conquering the Republic of China and occupying the island of Taiwan. At the 19th Party Congress, in October 2017, Xi was quite blunt:

People on both sides of the strait are one family, with shared blood…. No one can ever cut the veins that connect us.

It doesn’t matter that the citizens of the RoC are proud to be of the RoC and not of the PRC.

No one can ever cut the veins that connect us. Sound familiar?

Where else are there significant Chinese-heritage populations? Here are the 15 sovereign nations with the largest such:

  • Thailand
  • Malaysia
  • Indonesia
  • Singapore
  • Canada
  • Myanmar
  • Philippines
  • Australia
  • South Korea
  • Japan
  • Vietnam
  • France
  • United Kingdom
  • Venezuela

All of these nations are under pressure of one form or another to, at the least, not interfere with PRC interests, and in many cases to accede to them. Will that be sufficient for Xi? It matters not a single minim that these populations are proud, loyal citizens of those nations: their blood is mainland Chinese, and no one can ever cut the veins that connect [them].

And the United States, with the third largest Chinese-heritage population—entirely loyal to and proud, successful citizens of the US, but also with, according to Xi, those inseverable blood ties to mainland China. The PRC is working hard to develop and deploy a world-spanning first strike capability for its PLA.

Dangerous Misunderstanding

JCS Chairman General Mark Milley has a very serious and dangerous misunderstanding. He said, as paraphrased by The Wall Street Journal,

China’s investment in its navy, hypersonic missiles, cyber, and other technologies are designed to ensure that it, along with Russia and the US, are world-leading nations.

This is a man who isn’t paying attention to what’s going on around him. The People’s Republic of China’s investments, along with its foreign policy initiatives, are not at all concerned with enabling the PRC to operate on an equal footing with us and with Russia.

The PRC’s moves are centered solely on that nation being the sole world power, with Russia as its sidekick and our nation subordinated to its bidding.

See, for instance, the PRC-Russia agreement allowing the PRC to exploit Siberian mineral, timber, and other resources. In executing this agreement, the PRC is allowed to colonize move hundreds of thousands of PRC workers into south central and eastern Siberia to carry out the exploitation, and then it will share some of the produce with Russia.

The PRC’s navy, hypersonic missiles, cyber, and other investments, many of which are coming to fruition, are intended to give the PRC a first-strike military capability so overwhelming that no second-strike response would even be possible.

Chit-Chat

Secretary of State Antony Blinken has some.

The secretary declined to detail potential US responses [to a Russian invasion of Ukraine] but said Mr Biden cited the potential for “high-impact economic measures.”

And

If Beijing were to decide to try to change the status quo [vis-à-vis the Republic of China] unilaterally by force, it would be a very serious mistake[.]

Sure. What exactly might those high-impact economic measures be, and on what basis does Blinken—or Biden-Harris, for that matter—think Putin cares about those, given that he’ll have Ukraine under his control? What evidence do Blinken or Biden-Harris offer to suggest Putin has cared overmuch about past “economic measures?”

Blinken and Biden-Harris are carefully silent on all of that.

Further, what do Blinken or Biden-Harris suggest would be their corrective action for Beijing’s “mistake?” What makes either of them think Xi Jinping would care about any correction, since he’d already be occupying the RoC?

More careful silence.

Advice

Rebecca Grant, DC-based national security analyst, had some for President Joe Biden (D) vis-à-vis Russian President Vladimir Putin on the subject of the latter’s threatened invasion of Ukraine. The venue for that advice is the summit between the two men that occurred yesterday.

Grant is naively optimistic, though.

The 30-nation Euro-Atlantic alliance is primed to deter and counter rash Russian actions.

No, it’s not. Johnson is just posturing, and the UK, a signatory to the Budapest Memorandum (as is Russia), already has betrayed Ukraine by acquiescing to Russia’s occupation of Crimea and eastern Ukraine rather than enforcing the Memorandum. Beyond that, Germany is already in the bag for Russia, and France is carefully quiet.

America is already involved.

Indeed, we are. We’re also a signatory to the Budapest Memorandum, and under the Obama-Biden administration, we’ve also betrayed Ukraine by declining to enforce that memorandum. Beyond that, ships in the Black Sea are ducks in a pond for any force on the shores.

Biden and NATO can do more to deter Putin.  Start with immediate air exercises in Ukraine with US and NATO aircraft.

It’s a start, did Biden have the integrity and moral courage to do so, but more is needed, a yet sterner test of Biden’s…strength. Economic sanctions are insufficient and unlikely to be enacted, anyway. The more that’s actually needed is moving US (because we can’t count on a NATO whose European members won’t even honor their own commitments to fund and equip the alliance) troops into Poland, south toward Ukraine and north toward Kaliningrad, and moving US naval forces to within air strike range of Kaliningrad.

Grant closed her advice with this:

Heat up one tank engine and we’ll know about it.

Certainly. But what will Biden do about it? Grant opened her piece with this:

Ukraine’s borders are a parking lot for Russian tanks, trucks, and artillery ready for a three-pronged blitzkrieg.

Even after that first tank has lit off and crossed the border, that parking lot, for the next number of days, will remain a parking lot of targets. Von Moltke learned that problem in 1914, and even though Putin’s generals likely will have learned from that, the same or worse bottlenecks exist in western Russia and eastern Ukraine.

Biden is unlikely to do any of that, though. He got his marching orders from Putin via Colonial Pipeline, and he already has kowtowed to Putin via Nordstream 2.

Biden will only kowtow again.

In any event, we’ll be hearing, today and in the coming days, the claims of the two participants. We’ll learn empirically, in the coming weeks and months, the outcome of the summit.

Deglobalization, Costs, and Inflation

There is considerable angst developing in response to the developing move toward economic deglobalization. That angst is centered on the risk of inflation as nations move away from the Ricardian concept of nations focusing their economies on what their own population does best and/or has the best access to necessary resources, and importing from other nations that which the importer might need or want but that those other nations might produce more efficiently and cheaply. The Ricardian concept holds, correctly, that such specialization leads to lower costs overall for all nations and all consumers while yielding the greatest prosperity for all nations and their populations.

The angst is well enough described by Yuka Hayashi in her Sunday Wall Street Journal article.

…tariffs and “Buy American” procurement rules, businesses moving production back to the US where it will be less vulnerable to those policies, and depressed immigration inflows.
“The reorganization and shortening of supply chains…will have a cost that will be passed down to the vendors and ultimately to consumers,” says Dana Peterson, chief economist for Conference Board, an independent research group supported by large US businesses.

And

Studies have shown that globalization has influenced US prices. Kristin Forbes, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist, has found that those parts of the consumer-price index influenced by global factors, such as commodity prices, currency fluctuations and global value chains, drove half the changes in the index between 2015 and 2017, up from about 25% in the early 1990s. Economists Robert Johnson of the University of Notre Dame and Diego Comin of Dartmouth found in a 2020 paper that international trade had the effect of reducing US consumer prices by an annual 0.1 to 0.4 percentage point between 1997 and 2018.

And

Deglobalization gained impetus with the global financial crisis of 2008…. It might be adding to current high inflation….

All of that is certainly true, and deglobalization is, not might be, contributing to high inflation, but none of that makes deglobalization, of necessity, an unvarnished bad.

Ricardo’s ideas work only in an idealized world where all the nations are, if not friendly with each other, at least have no enmity among each other. In the real world that does not obtain, and some nations are enemies of others. Within that, some nations might hold resources that their enemy nation(s) might need, and other nations might produce useful, even critical, goods that their enemy nation(s) cannot produce as efficiently or cheaply.

It is against that real world backdrop that a fluid balancing of economic globalization and deglobalization occurs.

Deglobalization certainly can be carried too far, but some deglobalization is necessary from a national security perspective: we need to identify the industries and materials that are critical to our national defense and to our economy and then develop wholly domestic supply chains for them that extend from dirt in the ground to final product at its usage destination. These supply chains don’t need to be—shouldn’t be—our sole source for those resources, intermediate products, or final products, but it’s a Critical Item to have one or two such for each industry and material from which we can expand should an enemy try to cut us off.

That will increase price levels for those items and for related, substitutable, items, but that’s a necessary price to pay for our security—especially compared to the price we’ll pay if we’re cut off completely by an enemy nation, as the PRC already has tried to do with its rare earths production near monopoly.