Demographics

Iran has launched its first official matchmaking website, hoping to encouraging millions of singles to marry.

In a ceremony marking the launch of the site on Monday, Deputy Minister of Youth Affairs and Sports Mahmoud Golzari said the estimated 11 million young unwed Iranians “justified the launching of the site.”

They need to do something. They have a fertility rate of 1.85 children born per woman, sharply lower than the population-maintenance rate of roughly 2.1.

Their impending demographic implosion (although not for a couple of generations; these things take time) also makes them the more dangerous and puts a premium on us monitoring them very carefully and alertly.

Cyber Hacks as Acts of War

Damian Paletta asked when the one becomes the other in a Saturday piece for The Wall Street Journal. Then he conflated two different things with the question of when a cyber attack becomes an act of war in his answer. The backdrop is the People’s Republic of China’s invasion of our government’s personnel computer systems to steal a “tremendous number of personnel records—including some quite personal records.”

If the White House finds out who stole the information, what will President Barack Obama do about it?

This has nothing to do with whether the PRC’s invasion was an act of war. The question of what Obama—or any President—will or would do is strictly about what a response might be or should be. The act of war has occurred, or it has not, being merely a criminal act that wants a response.

The more serious conflation, though, is this:

But cyberattacks by nation-states are a relatively new phenomenon, in which there isn’t a road map of deterrents and responses.

That we don’t know how to respond, or that we’re presently utterly helpless and unable to respond in the face of the PRC’s actions, is wholly irrelevant to the question of whether the PRC’s actions constitute an act of war.

For the record, it’s clear to me that the PRC’s invasion is a clear, deliberate act of war, and while not as devastating (maybe, we’ve yet to learn the full range of outcomes from the invasion) as Pearl Harbor, it’s no less an act. It’s also plainly intended to intimidate a feckless and internationally weak administration, to send a signal of what’s in store if we don’t become more cooperative on a number of things of interest to the PRC (its South and East China Sea seizures come to mind), to flex PRC muscles, simply to show the school how helpless the little boy is in the face of the bully, or some combination of those.

For the record, too, a couple of things are necessary in response. One is for this (or more likely the next—and isn’t the delay a frightening thought) administration to get off the dime and get serious about cyber security. There are plenty of private and government security experts available and more than equal to the task. The biggest thing this (or the next) administration can do, then, has to do with personnel: it needs to start firing folks and disbanding agencies that don’t move fast enough to button up, including passive-aggressive resistors who won’t like the change in “corporate culture” required, and it needs to decertify unions that get in the way of such reforms.

The other thing needed is for this administration (or the next) to put together a broad-ranging response that will include cyber attacks against the CCP’s communications and data-handling computer networks with a view to erasing the hard drives, against the PRC’s port city government communications and data-handling networks with a similar goal, and the USN sailing into and around the island groups the PRC has physically seized and raising an ECM curtain around them that isolates those islands and any PRC shipping in the area from the mainland. This response need not occur in immediate response to a particular PRC attack on us, and it need not occur today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon and for a very long time.

We cannot shy away from this fight; the longer we let our enemies camp in our networks, the harder it will become finally to root them out. If we can find the will at all.

American Security

Thinks about the Obama administration’s current, and ongoing, failure regarding the Office of Personnel Management. After having “lost” the background check data it had “stored” in its computer facility last fall, the Inspector General of OPM said that

parts of its network should be shut down because they were riddled with weaknesses that “could potentially have national security implications.”

OPM didn’t bother. Now we learn that People’s Republic of China hackers (should we start calling them invaders?) entered OPM’s computer network and stole the personal data of all 2+ million Federal employees and the personal data of a skosh under an addition 2 million past Federal employees. As The Wall Street Journal put it,

[T]his isn’t a James Bond movie. It’s a Dilbert cartoon.

The WSJ goes on to say that the Federal bureaucracy can’t protect its data. I say, given the long-term duration of these hacks, including those by Russian and Iranian hacks and that IG recommendation, it’s not a matter “can’t.” The Feds refuse to try.

Are these hacks or an ongoing invasion?

The episode is one more confirmation that China is waging an unrelenting if unacknowledged cyber war against the United States.

Does Obama care at all about the security of the United States or of individual Americans?

Partition

Has President Barack Obama acquiesced in the partition of Ukraine?

At the G-7 meeting last Sunday, Obama appears to have written off the concept of restoring occupied Crimea to Ukraine.

[Obama’s Press Secretary Josh] Earnest said whether to keep or impose additional economic sanctions against Russia will depend on whether the country decides to keep its end of the so-called Minsk agreement, updated after Moscow annexed Crimea last year, not whether it returns the peninsula.

With Earnest’s voice, Obama talked also about the need for the G-7 to

show unity in confronting Russia over actions in Ukraine.

Meaning Obama wants everyone to stand together and in unison shake their fingers very firmly at Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

Will Obama acquiesce to the further partition of Ukraine and allow Russia to keep the eastern provinces currently occupied by Russian forces and paramilitary forces?

A New World “Order?”

This still is President Barack Obama’s problem, and it seems to be Hillary Clinton’s as well.

The causes of war as discerned ever since Thucydides’ time are three: wars of ideology, of fear, and of gain.

Thucydides traced the war that ruined ancient Greece to Sparta’s fear that Athens’ growing power was crossing the line where it would be impossible to contain. Israel faces that threat from Iran, as today’s international structures for the maintenance of international security have failed to halt Iran’s drive, propelled by religious ideology, to possess nuclear weapons. Israel, bereft of its traditional sense of American support, is making ready to act against Iran’s menace to its existence. President Obama’s priority must [be to] repair relations with Israel by…convincing its leaders that the US understands Israel’s uniquely dangerous position.

And there now grows a deepening appetite for gain. America, perceived as eager to shed the burdens of world order in order to be “fundamentally transformed” through European-style social commitments, talks of engagement even when Iran’s “diplomacy” is a form of protracted warfare.

Three years later, we’re nearly at that end, and still with no serious effort by Obama—or Clinton—to repair relations.