More Actual Facts

…about climate change. In a paper, Atmospheric controls on northeast Pacific temperature variability and change, 1900–2012, released last Monday by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, roughly translated for us laymen by the AP, authors Jim Johnstone, at the time of his research with the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean at the University of Washington, and Nathan Mantua, research scientist with the NOAA Fisheries Service in Santa Cruz, CA, found that northeast Pacific (that’s abeam the US) ocean warming since 1900 correlates better with naturally occurring wind pattern changes than with any pattern of human greenhouse gas injection into the atmosphere. According to Johnstone,

What we found was the somewhat surprising degree to which the winds can explain all the wiggles in the temperature curve. So clearly, there are other factors stronger than the greenhouse forcing that is affecting those temperatures[.]

Also damaging to the climate panic-mongers’ case were these facts:

[O]ne steep ocean warming period from 1920 to 1940 predates the big increases in greenhouse gases, and an ocean cooling period from 1998 to 2013 came while global average temperatures were at or near all-time highs.

Of course the climate pseudo-science folks demur.

They pointed out that the study sees a correlation but did not do the rigorous statistical and computer analysis to show that the cause of the wind changes were natural—the kind of analysis done when scientists attribute weather extremes to global warming.

This would be the same computer analysis—computer modeling—that has found itself unable to predict, simultaneously, the past and the present, and which predictions of the future have been wildly variable and heavily dependent on the specific values assigned to a myriad of model inputs.

The abstract is here; the full article is behind the PNAS‘ login wall.

Coalition and Air Strikes

The US has expanded its “air campaign” against ISIS to targets in Syria, including targets involving an affiliate of al Qaeda, a gang calling itself The Khorasan Group.

I used quotes around the term because the only ones calling it an air campaign are the Obama administration and the members of the coalition that flew into Syria along with the US. The coalition, the administration now is willing to say, consists of the US, France (which is limiting its participation to airstrikes in Iraq—recall that Syria was a French client before it became a Russian client) Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.

The US, though, has declined to identify which targets which of our coalition mates struck, how much ordinance each of them delivered, or any other material battle participation information, except to note that Qatari aircraft merely accompanied American aircraft without releasing ordinance or conducting any pre- or post-strike reconnaissance. Apparently their pilots were simply filling a periodic cross-country nav currency square. It’s also clear that the size of the Arab participation was token only: each of the Arab coalition mates flew only two or four aircraft in the strikes.

The US led off the effort with a cluster of Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from a ship in the Red Sea and one in the Arabian Gulf. Following that, the aircraft went in and struck a total of 24 targets. Count ’em.

Unfortunately, even a sustained series of strikes like these can hardly be called an air “campaign,” and it’s worth noting that no one—not the US, as Obama has repeatedly promised the ISIS terrorists—and not our putative Arab allies, who are even more proximately threatened, is willing to go up against these terrorists on the ground. (The sole exception are the Kurds, who are under direct attack, and we’re doing a woefully inadequate job of arming and training them. Even the Iraqi “army,” also under direct attack, cuts and runs at every opportunity, rather than going onto the offensive and attacking, on the ground, these terrorists.) Air strikes alone, even a serious campaign, cannot defeat an enemy that already occupies extensive territory.

No, the Syria strikes were just more potshots, in the style of our month-long series of strikes in Iraq; they’re not part of a serious campaign, in coordination with an equally extensive ground campaign, of striking simultaneously all across ISIS-held territory, attacking infrastructure, equipment, weapons and ammunition depots, the terrorists themselves—strategic as well as tactical targets.

In fact, given the loud, public advance notice President Barack Obama gave—two weeks’ worth—to anyone who would listen, including explicitly the Syrian and Iranian governments, very few ISIS terrorists—some 120, or so—were killed: the buildings hit, including a couple of ammo dumps and a command center, were largely empty when the coalition struck.

This isn’t a serious effort; it won’t be, as it runs counter to Obama’s six-year theme that if we only sit down and talk, things will be resolved amicably.

Given the different…goals…of Obama and the terrorists, I’m reminded, again, of the parable of the mouse and the owl. The mouse thinks the owl’s ways are wrong; the owl thinks the mouse is lunch.