Daily Archives: 30 April 2012

The Latest “Recovery” Numbers

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First, some numbers via The Wall Street Journal:

  • Commerce Department: 2.2% growth for the first quarter of 2012.
    • down from 3% at the end of last year.
    • close to the 1.7% that all of 2011 had.
  • Recession-created pent up demand for cars and trucks accounted for half of that increase in GDP—1.1%.
    • “Real” growth in GDP, then, was 1.1%.
  • Businesses building up inventories accounted for another 0.6 percentage points of GDP growth.
    • Now we’re down to 0.5% “real” growth.
  • Businesses, over the last six months, have added inventory by more than $120 billion.
    • foretells lower business spending in the nearby future as that expanded inventory needs to be sold off.

As backdrop for all that, our GDP grew on the year by $600 billion, but Federal debt climbed by $1.3 trillion—more than twice GDP growth—in the same period.

Now, about President Obama’s enormous tax increase scheduled to take effect next January.  A worker’s Social Security tax bill will go up by nearly 50% as the payroll tax holiday expires, and his income tax bill will go up drastically: a lower income worker will see his first marginal tax go from 10% to 15% as Obama simply erases that 10% bracket, while a high-income worker will see his top marginal rate run up from 35% to 39.6%.

And this doesn’t include Obama’s tax increases on capital gains and dividends—levied on those rich investors like retired grandma for whom dividend income plays such a major role, and on those middle class investors—the ones whose 401(k)s or whose company-provided pensions invest for dividend and cap gain income.

Imagine the impact on GDP—and on the practical economy in which we must live—of these tax explosions.

Obama Got One Right

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President Obama is in hot water over a decision by his Health and Human Services Secretary, Kathleen Sebelius, to limit access to Plan B/Morning After pills to prescription only for girls 17 years old and younger.  Women 18 and older still can get the pill over the counter.

President Obama is right on this one.  Yes, he’s reputed to be “the most pro-abortion in the history of the United States.”  So what?  Those who use this to decry Obama’s hypocrisy are ignoring an important aspect of this issue.

While there is a legitimate question concerning the adequacy of the science and whether this pill is safe for “young teens,” there’s a larger matter involved.  Sex and pregnancy are serious matters, even for adults.  These girls, who are 17 and younger, are both legally and emotionally children.  It’s true enough that “18” is an arbitrarily drawn line for defining legal majority.  However, it’s also true that children lack the maturity to make reasoned judgments about the risks they run when they engage in various behaviors, including sex.

Whether or not this is the motivation for Obama’s decision, requiring the prescription for minor children is a pathway to getting/keeping parents involved, and parents need to be involved where their children are concerned.  Certainly, some children mature faster than others, some parents are bad parents, and many adults make bad decisions.  However, that last is irrelevant to this, and the maturation and examples of bad parenting are exceptions—they cannot justify a blanket rule granting all children access to this sort of medication without adult supervision—ideally, their parents’ supervision.