Hostage Taking and Consequences

Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich was kidnapped a few days ago while on assignment in Russia by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s FSB, and Gershkovich now is being held for ransom of some sort.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken shook his finger very firmly at Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and expressed his grave concern over the seizure, and he pressed his Russian counterpart for [Gershkovich’s] release. Lavrov was left trembling in his shoes by Blinken’s firmness. Or not.

On the other hand, Blinken, surely a very honorable and a very smart man, knows that mere words of frustration have no meaning absent concrete action.

It follows, then, that he wouldn’t “press” for an action from another nation without having a plan of consequences ready to be applied should that nation not take that action. So: what is Blinken’s plan?

It’s not much of one.

Idiotic

Some otherwise reputable folks want a six-month moratorium on the continued development and improvement of artificial intelligence software.

Several tech executives and top artificial-intelligence researchers, including Tesla Inc Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and AI pioneer Yoshua Bengio, are calling for a pause in the breakneck development of powerful new AI tools.
A moratorium of six months or more would give the industry time to set safety standards for AI design and head off potential harms of the riskiest AI technologies, the proponents of a pause said.

Cynically, the six months would give the Biden administration, with its empirical preference for DEI over actual defense capability, time to manufacture a permanent “moratorium.”

Aside from that, though, our nation is in a break-neck race for supremacy—even parity—in artificial intelligence and its ability to generate ever improving software, especially in weapons and counterweapons, ever improving production capabilities, and on and on. Even a six-month delay could put us fatally behind in what is, at bottom, an exponential growth curve.

At the very least, we need to continue our own development apace, if only because our enemies are developing AI capabilities as fast as they can, and we need to understand AI capabilities in general and our enemies’ AI capabilities in particular, and we need to know what we need to defend against our enemies’ use of AI against us and to develop those tools.

An End to the Ukrainian War

The lede in a Wall Street Journal article goes like this:

Western leaders are beginning to have a clearer vision of how they hope the war in Ukraine will end.
What is missing is any plan to make it happen.

On the contrary. The principal, the nation that has been invaded by the barbarian, has a very clear vision of how the war will end. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has articulated that vision since the day the barbarian hordes swarmed over the borders: all Russian forces out of all Ukrainian territory. Full stop.

What’s missing is Western resolve to assist Ukraine in achieving that.

Far more likely, though, is a war of attrition that lasts until one side is so defeated or exhausted that it calls a halt without realizing its ultimate aims.
Such an outcome, many diplomats acknowledge, would be measured in years not months.

Such an outcome, though, is not at all predicated on an essential balance of Ukrainian-barbarian forces and a resulting grinding fight. Any attritional aspects to the war would be obviated if the West were to supply Ukraine with the weapons, ammunition, and logistical support that Ukraine’s defense leaders say they need and in the amounts and rate of supply they say they need them.

Instead, the Know Betters in the American, French, and German governments are slow-walking all of that, insisting that Ukraine doesn’t need to tools to win—only the tools to prevent a barbarian win. French President Emmanuel Macron provides the canonical example of this arrogant shortsightedness, doubting Ukraine’s ability to achieve a complete victory on the battlefield. A victory which, of course, Ukraine cannot achieve as long as the tools they need are slow-walked or outright withheld.

That’s what is the stuff of attrition, of unnecessary blood spilled by Ukrainian soldiers and civilians—women and children—and of continued barbarian atrocities of rape, child murder, wanton destruction.

Courage

Republic of China President Tsai Ing-wen is making a formal diplomatic trip to Belize and Guatemala. En route, she’ll make “transit stops” in New York on the way out and in Los Angeles on the way back.

While in New York, Tsai is expected to meet with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R, CA).

The People’s Republic of China’s government men are dismayed. No mind. If President Joe Biden (D) had any courage, Tsai would make an additional transit stop, this one in DC, in the Oval Office, to meet with Biden.

But he doesn’t, so she won’t.

Another Biden Admin Diplomatic Failure

This one in our backyard. On the heels of the People’s Republic of China’s brokering a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, right under Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s nose, the PRC apparently has convinced Honduras President Xiomara Castro to end her government’s recognition of the Republic of China and switch that recognition to the PRC.

This also has happened under Blinken’s nose.

I have to ask: did Blinken and his boss President Joe Biden (D) really not know this move was in progress? If not, why not? If so, what were they doing about it, and why did they fail?

Folks thought former President Donald Trump was pulling our nation back from world involvement. The Biden administration is showing what full retreat looks like. But Ukraine, you say? Biden is doing his utmost to avoid that, with his retreat from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threats and his deliberate, bloody, slow-walking transferring arms and ammunition to Ukraine.