Foolishness

This time regarding the Iran nuclear weapons deal, exemplified by this excerpt from a Wall Street Journal article concerning the Obama administration’s efforts to strengthen that deal during these last two months of overt lameduckness.

The picture they [Obama officials] plan to articulate for Mr Trump’s team is stark: if the agreement falls apart, and the US is blamed for its collapse, Iran would resume its nuclear program more aggressively. In that case, the US risks alienating Europe, as well as China and Russia, and limiting its ability to use sanctions again to contain Iran. Military action against Tehran’s nuclear facilities, these officials argue, could be the only alternative.

If the deal falls apart, Iran surely will accelerate its nuclear weapons development program.  But this is a program that Iran has never stopped, nor even held in abeyance, the deal notwithstanding.  Iran is aggressively pursuing development of missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads against Israel and Europe, and Iran already has been caught—twice—with more heavy water than the deal permits.  Honest mistakes, that water.  Sure.

The US risks alienating Russia and the PRC?  They already are alienated from us, and have been for some time: see Georgia, Ukraine, Kaliningrad, the East China Sea, the South China Sea, the two nations’ cyber attacks against us, and on and on.

Limiting our ability to use sanctions again?  That was lost when the guy who sits in the Secretary of State’s chair, John “Motorboat Skipper” Kerry, with President Barack Obama’s (D) backing, browbeat France into accepting a much weaker deal than even the French wanted.  It was lost, too, when the Obama administration lifted so many of our sanctions and agreed to the lifting of UN sanctions.

Military action is the only alternative left?  To the extent that’s true (and it isn’t; alternatives remain, even if many of them have been made harder to use by this administration), it is so strictly as the outcome of the Obama administration’s foolishness.

Free Trade

Specific trade deals might be good or bad, but that’s specific to the deal; such efficacies don’t say much of anything about free trade or free trade deals in general.  There are, in fact, two primary reasons for encouraging free trade, zones of free trade, and the deals that enhance free trade and generate free trade zones.  One reason is the economic benefits for the partners of the free trade deals, including lower costs—and so downward pressure on price inflation—for the citizens of the nations involved, and net (if small) job creation, which stems from those lower costs and domestic companies benefiting from the increased demand that flows from those lower costs.  It’s true that particular jobs disappear as production moves to lower cost areas (and that’s true for entirely domestic regions, too), but other jobs get created as other businesses crop up to take advantage of production shifts.

The other reason, though, and the reason that’s the emphasis of this piece, is free trade and free trade zones as instruments of foreign policy.  There are lots of ways free trade operates here, ranging from enhancing relationships among the members of the free trade arrangement to demonstrating the economic benefits of free markets to potentiating the freedoms associated with free markets to countering the influence of our enemies.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership pending deal and the People’s Republic of China’s responses present an example of that last.  The TPP initially involved a dozen nations rimming the Pacific including the US, Canada, Chile, and Peru on the eastern side and, importantly, including Japan and many of the nations surrounding the South China Sea.  Recall that the PRC has seized and is actively occupying the South China Sea and is attempting to seize the East China Sea; these aggressions are at the direct expense of those South China Sea nations and of Japan.  Aside from the naked grab aspect, the PRC’s behavior is aimed at harming American interests in the Pacific through those harms to our friends, allies, and potential allies, the aggressions are aimed directly at those nations: to subordinate them economically, and then politically, to the PRC.  Keep in mind that 30% of the world’s seaborne trade goes through that South China Sea, including more than $1 trillion of trade bound for us, with the bulk of the rest not going to the PRC being critical to the economies of those rimming nations and Japan.

The TPP by design did not include the PRC.  The failure of the TPP is being filled by a PRC-led trade pact in the offing in conjunction with its in-progress Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.  But neither this new trade pact nor the RCEP are agreements among trade equals.  The members of these deals will be required to toe the PRC line regarding censorship, intellectual property rights, cyber security, so on.

And

In the next five years, China will import $8 trillion of goods and invest $750 billion abroad, [PRC President Xi Xinping] said.

Those are $8 trillion of goods—and services—that could be going to members of the TPP and to us rather than to the PRC.  Further, that trade imbalance—to the extent that President-elect is correct about trade imbalances—constitutes a lever that could be used to…encourage…the PRC to withdraw from its occupation and attempted occupation of those two Seas.  Frankly, I don’t think Trump is right on trade imbalances, per se, but the economic isolation of the PRC possible from those numbers, to the extent Xi believes it, still represents a long lever.

Japan has gone ahead and ratified the TPP, and other members of the pending pact should do so, as well.  This would not only work to the mutual prosperity of the ratifiying nations, it could serve as a strong economic check to an aggressively expansionist PRC.  The economic integration potentiated by the TPP would enhance the region’s own leverage against the acquisitiveness of the PRC by making them, as a group even without us, much closer to the PRC’s equal in economic power and leverage.  Details of the deal may well want improvement, but that should be for Round Two of the negotiations while the deal’s effectivity and weaknesses are observed empirically.

The containment of the PRC makes the deal as it stands worth it.  Especially with a Round Two.

How the European Left Sees Us

Here’s how Gordon Repinski and Holger Stark see us, as they say in so many words in their Spiegel Online piece from last Friday.

On that evening [on which Republican Party Presidential candidate Donald Trump won the election and became President Elect Donald Trump], America experienced a revolution. The successful postwar Western model, rooted in mobility, enlightenment, and inclusion has been convulsed by this angry protest vote.

Because it couldn’t possibly be the case that the successful postwar Western model, rooted in mobility, enlightenment and inclusion has been rescued from the Progressive, cynically divisive identity politics, deliberately dependence-on-government-making Left of the President Barack Obama (D) administration.

And

It was a vote of no-confidence in globalized capitalism, an expression of America’s partition into liberal cities and backward rural areas.

Because it couldn’t possibly be a repudiation of too easily done and so too bad trade agreements and not at all a rejection of international trade.

Because rural Americans are just rubes, too stupid to keep up with their Betters of modern liberalism (read: Progressivism) in our cities.

And

The political system has experienced a delegitimization of democracy that makes it impossible to simply carry on as before. It is a delegitimization aimed primarily at the elite, Hillary Clinton first and foremost—a woman who represents this system more than any other politician.

Because elitism is a better form of democracy than actual democracy, and even a better form of democracy than American republican democracy.  Never mind that Hillary Clinton, as the exemplar of this elitist, corrupt (literally as well as metaphorically) elitism is the raison d’être for that rejection—explicitly to rescue republican democracy from that elitism.

Probably Not A Bad Idea, Then

The People’s Republic of China is…wary…of dealing with a President Trump, and they’re expressing that wariness in the milieu of the Paris climate accord.  Xie Zhenhua, the PRC’s climate negotiator, is being cited by The Guardian as saying, in response to Republican Party Presidential candidate Donald Trump’s commitment to walk away from the accord, that

The world is moving towards balancing environmental protection and economic growth….

And

I believe a wise political leader should take policy stances that conform with global trends.

And Trump should continue the meekness of President Barack Obama’s (D) following along leading from behind.  The PRC is much more comfortable that way.

That just supports the thesis that the Paris climate accord is worthless, and we should walk away from it.