Another Installment of the Obama Recovery

The number of part-time workers who’d rather work full time remains heavily depressed. Here are some numbers, via Nick Timiraos in The Wall Street Journal.

  • 3 million full-time workers hired just this year, but the number of full-time workers is still around 2 million shy of the level before the recession began in 2007
  • number of workers who are part time for economic reasons is 4.5% of the civilian workforce, down from a high of 5.9% in 2010 but well above the 2.7% average in the decade preceding the recession

Yeah, we’re doing wonderfully well. Sure.

Why Is This Bad?

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said Friday the central bank could trigger some financial turbulence when it starts raising short-term interest rates from near zero, where they have been pinned for six years.

The Fed will try to limit such volatility by communicating its interest rate plans clearly, Ms Yellen said….

She’s nominally talking about the volatility arising from the Fed not being entirely clear about its market moves monetary policy strategy in order to avoid “disrupting” financial markets, but she’s really talking about volatility throughout our economy, not only the financial markets.

Democracies, especially republican democracies, are at their noisiest when they’re at their most robust. So, too, are economies at their freest and most robust when they’re at their noisiest. It is, after all, the creative destruction of a free market that creates the broadest opportunity and the broadest prosperity. It is exactly that creative destruction that is stifled by a government that sits on and suppresses market volatility.

Three Press Conferences

After the “what shellacking?” outcome of Tuesday’s mid-terms, Senate Minority Leader (and expected Majority Leader in the next Congress) Mitch McConnell (R, KY) held a press conference in which he invited bipartisanship and a working-together atmosphere in which the President and Congress could get done the things that need doing in those areas in which there was substantial agreement and continue debating those matters in disagreement.

A few hours later, President Barack Obama held his own press conference. In this one, the principle, Obama, also invited bipartisanship and a working-together atmosphere. So long as the Republicans came along with him. If they did not, he would act unilaterally, most particularly on immigration, via Executive Order. After all, he insisted, the election outcome was a demand by the voters—especially those two-thirds who stayed home and didn’t vote—to “work together.”

The next day, with the offer of peace and willingness to compromise having been thrown in Republicans’ face by Obama, House Speaker John Boehner (R, OH) came out angry, offering to work with the President, but warning him against going against or around Congress.

Two out of three isn’t bad. Unfortunately, that third is willfully rejecting the voters’ demand—especially of those voters who voted.

No, Mr Obama, the outcome was not a demand to work together. It was a repudiation of your behavior, of your policies, of the policies of your party. The results are plain, not just at the Federal level, but also in the governors’ mansions where Democratic Party governors were ejected, for a net gain of three governorships by the Republicans, and in the 99 State legislative houses, where Republicans increased their control to 67-69 of those chambers (some elections remain too close to call).

Neither, though, was this set of outcomes a mandate for the Republicans to enact their plans (which, despite the NLMSM’s attempt to spin otherwise, have been quite specific). Republicans, under our system, were simply the alternative on the ballot. Suggesting that if it’s repudiation of the one it must be endorsement of the other is a cynically false dichotomy proffered by that same NLMSM.

This was a demand, rather, to do something else. Not necessarily what the Republicans propose, just most definitely to stop doing what the Democrats and Obama have been doing, and do something else.

That will take the two parties working together, and where the Democrats continue their obstruction, it will take the Republicans exercising their majority power and the majority authority the voters have given them—for now—so overwhelmingly.

And it will take Obama getting out of the way.

Another Federal Judge Gets It Right

Disparate theory is the idea that racial discrimination occurs, even when there is no intent to discriminate. This “theory” eliminates the “discrimination” part of the behavior actually prohibited by the Fair Housing Act of 1968, and it is the justification for a HUD rule written to allow a legal finding of discrimination if there is merely a statistical showing of disparity. This “theory” also disregards the fact that there are many factors in play with such disparity besides actual discrimination, things like financial qualifications, criminal history, and so on.

US District Judge Richard Leon has thrown the BS Flag on the concept in American Insurance Assoc v HUD. He also castigated the government for attempting to apply such a standard, and he decried Labor Secretary Tom Perez’ behavior related to the case. AIA is a case in which the insurer sued the government over that HUD rule, arguing that it was illegal as no such authority exists in the FHA to permit it.

A major part of Leon’s ruling centered on the distinction between “disparate treatment” and “disparate impact.” The former represents actual discrimination—the denial of this or mandate of that based solely on the color of a man’s skin, for instance. The latter is only an outcome—the result of a broad-based and broadly applied criterion, like financial qualifications—and an absence of discriminatory intent other than, e.g., those financial qualifications.

After leading the Federal government, as defendants in AIA, through a grade school use of the dictionary in defining the words the government used in its own briefs to justify the HUD rule, Leon pointed out that, not only did the text of the FHA not say what the government claimed it said—that disparate impact, in addition to treatment, was explicitly barred by the Act—Leon pointed out that the Act contains no language barring disparate impact and further that Congress knew how to do so, and so would have done so, had that been part of the Act’s goal [citations omitted]:

Put simply, Congress knows full well how to provide for disparate-impact liability, and has made its intent to do so known in the past by including clear effects-based language when it so chooses. The fact that this type of effects-based language appears nowhere in the text of the FHA is, to say the least, an insurmountable obstacle to the defendants’ position regarding the plain meaning of the Fair Housing Act.

Leon also was unimpressed with the Federal government’s behavior in attempting to keep disparate impact questions out of the courts altogether. In a footnote in his ruling, Leon said

…both Mount Holly and Magner were settled before the Court could decide the issue. The circumstances behind the Magner settlement, however, are particularly troubling. Indeed, a Congressional Joint Staff Report found that—in negotiating a quid pro quo deal that facilitated Magner’s settlement—then-Assistant Attorney General Thomas Perez “exert[ed] arbitrary authority” to settle the case and “placed ideology over objectivity and politics over the rule of law …. Rather than allowing the Supreme Court to freely and impartially adjudicate an appeal that the Court had affirmatively chosen to hear, [Perez] openly worked to get the appeal off of the Court’s docket.”

In his concluding remarks, Leon also wrote,

This is, yet another example of an Administrative Agency trying desperately to write into law that which Congress never intended to sanction. While doing so might have been more understandable—and less troubling—prior to the Supreme Court’s decision in Smith, in its aftermath it is nothing less than an artful misinterpretation of Congress’s intent….

This is a blow for freedom and for sound business sense in making decisions.

The opinion can be seen here.

Trade

I wrote earlier about our GDP number, including the impact on it of our trade gap—specifically our import numbers. Now the other side of that coin has been exposed.

The US trade gap widened in September as exports fell to a five-month low, a sign of weaker demand for US-made goods that underscores concerns about a global economic slowdown.

The trade deficit rose 7.6%…. Exports decreased 1.5% from August while imports were almost unchanged.

Two reports don’t make a trend, but they are suggestive.