Category Archives: markets

Foreign Investment Risk

Posted on by
Reply

The People’s Republic of China seems about to illustrate one form of this risk.

The State Council, China’s cabinet, will soon announce new measures that subject many overseas deals to reviews of “strict control,” according to people with direct knowledge of the matter and documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

Targeted for particular scrutiny by the pending measure are “extra-large” foreign acquisitions valued at $10 billion or more per deal, property investments by state-owned firms above $1 billion, and investments of $1 billion or more by any Chinese company in an overseas entity unrelated to the investor’s core business.

This is nothing but an overt attempt to restrict capital flows across the PRC’s borders.  Restricting such flows from one nation to another, no matter the rationale, elevates the risk of foreign investment.  The investor, whichever the nation of his domicile, cannot count on a reliable income flow from his investment or even being able to get his money back from that investment at the expiration of the arrangement.

Separately, it demonstrates an attitude toward law and government that’s been extant in the PRC and its antecedents for thousands of years: “I don’t like what you’re doing—this investment plan of yours—here’s a nice ex post facto law that makes your activity illegal.”

Times to Invest in the Market

Posted on by
Reply

My personal stock market investing mantra has always gone like this: “The best time to invest was yesterday; the second best time is today; the worst time is tomorrow.”  I decided to take check that and see how accurate it might be, so I built a simple Microsoft Excel® spreadsheet to take a back of the envelope look.

I looked at a few scenarios over a 30-year investment period, each of which consisted of a single $10,000 investment done in Year 1 that then grew at 3%/yr for 29 (or 30) of those years.  In one of those scenarios, the investment simply grew at those 3%/yr.  In the other scenarios, the investment would spike upward by 20% in the first year, in the last year, or in the middle of the sequence; or the investment would spike downward by 20% in those three selected years.  It’s important to note, too, that since I’m comparing these three scenarios with each other to look at the underlying principle, it doesn’t matter whether those 3% are nominal, real, or compared to this or that stock market index.

The bottom line is this: the 20% spike up or down makes a significant difference in the final value of the investment.  That final value becomes $24,300 if the investment grows without the spike, rises to $28,300 with a spike up, and falls to $18,900 with the spike down.

That seems to make my mantra useless, until we look at the effect of when the spike occurs.  That difference is zero.  It doesn’t matter whether the spike occurs at the start of the investing period, at the end, or in the middle; the end values are all the same: $28,300 with a spike up and $18,900 with the spike down.

My bottom line: unless I can time the market with considerable specificity, I stick with my mantra and simply enjoy the spike or ride it out.

My spreadsheet, which unrolls this year by year, is here.

Note: use this at your own risk.  I’m not a licensed investment (or any other type of) advice giver, nor do I play one on the radio.

Obamacare’s Cost Increases

Posted on by
Reply

As even President Barack Obama (D) has finally confessed, Obamacare plan premiums and deductibles are skyrocketing.  But the Democrats and their Progressive fellows are cynically obfuscating the matter.  Here’s a typical remark, by HHS’ Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Kevin Griffis:

Headline rates are generally rising faster than in previous years…headline rates are not what they [recipients of Obamacare subsidies] pay.

Indeed not.  Those rates are what you and I and our fellow taxpayers who don’t get subsidies pay, and they’re rates for which we pay a second time in the form of the subsidies Obamacare passes on to potsful of Obamacare plan purchasers.  We pay for those subsidies with our tax payments.

This is carefully elided by those pushers of Obamacare.

Be Quiet

Posted on by
Reply

Your Betters are working.

Elon Musk, who as CEO of Tesla Motors, which is building self-driving cars, has a personal, vested interest in the matter, says we must stop criticizing self-driving cars—they’re going to save lives.  One day.

In the meantime, we’re to keep our critiques—which would actually make the cars better, safer, and more consumer friendly—to ourselves.  He knows what he’s talking about; we don’t.  And we’ll kill people if we don’t shut up with our comments.

If, in writing some article that’s negative, you effectively dissuade people from using autonomous vehicles, you’re killing people[.]

Just be quiet.  Trust me.

Racism of the Left

Posted on by
Reply

Again.  Still.

A Black-owned bakery, Fat Cupcake, baked up a batch of cupcakes to honor our President, an American who happens to be black; they titled the cupcakes “Mr President.”  Fat Cupcake described their confection on their menu as an

Oreo (™) Cookie baked inside white cake, cookies n’ cream buttercream.

It didn’t take long for the Left to start manufacturing a racist beef where none exists, thereby displaying their own racism.  Via Yelp, for instance:

Very troubling. They were serving a cupcake called the “Mr President” that had an Oreo cookie inside. When I tried to point out the racism implied, they claimed that “our current president loves Oreos.”

Never mind that President Barack Obama (D) is well-known for loving Oreos; there’s no “claim” there.

This isn’t just an isolated anecdote, either.

Since opening in Southeast Portland, [Fat Cupcake owner Anjelica] Hayes said she’s had to field questions about whether her cupcakes are racist.

I’m surprised someone isn’t whining about the sexist nature of the establishment’s name.