A Brief Thought on AI and Employment

It seems that newly minted college graduates are having trouble getting those entry level, low-paying jobs that used to be virtual guarantees in most avocations. Employers are discovering that AI can do many of those entry level jobs just fine, so they’re only interested in hiring folks with a few (say 5-ish) years of actual experience into those jobs that need that experience.

The question becomes what to do after those 5-ish years when those relatively experienced employees move on. Having hired few to no inexperienced folks fresh out of college, there now is no pool of somewhat experienced folks from which to hire.

My thought: use AI to train those who are inexperienced, both new graduates and by now 5-ish years post-college and still inexperienced, to do the entry-level and the somewhat experience-needing work. Continue that cycle as AI advances into the work heretothen requiring more experience, using AI to train employees into those yet more experience-needing positions.

Humans are always going to be better than robots at doing work that requires actual thinking, including jobs that don’t require much thinking directly but do require interaction with other humans in teamwork and/or collaboration (which are not the same thing), with supervisors, even with robots. It also takes humans to train that thinking, and robots can be useful tools in that training.

Carlyle, an investment firm, already is doing this sort of thing, but it needs to get more widespread.

The investment firm Carlyle now pitches to prospective hires that they won’t be doing grunt work. Junior hires go through AI training and a program called “AI University” in which employees share best practices and participate in pilot programs, said Lúcia Soares, the firm’s Chief Information Officer.
In the past, she said, junior hires evaluating a deal would find articles on Google, request documents from companies, review that information manually, highlight details, and copy and paste information from one document to another. Now, AI tools can do almost all of that.
“That analyst still has to go in and make sure the analysis is accurate, question it, challenge it,” she said. “The nature of the brain work that needs to go into it is very much the same. It’s just the speed at which these analysts can move.”

For Whom Does He Work

For whom do they work, come to that? “He” is Dr Marty Makary, the FDA Commissioner. “They” are the bureaucrats of the FDA.

[C]hanges are coming so swiftly, and often without input from career scientists, that Makary faces declining staff morale threatening to stymie his efforts. He must also contend with the administration’s staff cuts at the FDA….

Career scientists—that’s the press’ euphemism for entrenched bureaucrats who happen to have medical or science degrees.

Lowering employee morale, as opposed to bureaucrats’ morale, is an important problem. It is, however, most optimally solved by either or both of two items:

  1. the bureaucrats figure out that they’re not the ones in charge, they must work within an operational hierarchy and either follow the instructions of those placed above them or resign their positions
  2. the remaining bureaucrats and those newly hired, the latter whom lack the habits of entrenchment, get actually productive and do their jobs more efficiently, which can be facilitated by astute use of AI
  3. That last, of course, requires that Makary implements AI as a tool and not as a decision maker itself

Regarding the opening question, “he,” Makary, works for the HHS Secretary, who in turn works for the President, who works for us American citizens. Makary, thus, works through his chain of command for us average Americans and for our benefit, not that of those bureaucrats. Neither the FDA nor government at large are jobs welfare programs; the incumbents are there for our weal, not their own benefit.

I’m not too worried about the morale of entrenched bureaucrats. I’m concerned about their actual performance of their duties.

Merit-Based to Depoliticize

The Trump administration is moving to consolidate Federal employment/termination decisions in the OMB and out of the several separate Departments and agencies.

[DOGE personnel embedded in OMB began issuing] orders that have weakened other agencies’ control over their own workforce, in many cases bringing hiring, firing, and performance evaluation—which for some employees, will soon be based primarily on execution of the president’s agenda—under the purview of OPM.

Previously,

Most of the government is made up of mid- and low-level civil servants whose jobs have historically been sheltered from political hiring decisions.

That’s the problem that badly wants fixing.

Government hiring and firing, at any level of government, needs to be politicized to an extent in order to maximize the likelihood that government employees work to carry out the policies of the incumbent President, Department Secretaries, and agency heads. This does not require a return to full-up patronage, but it does require that what constitutes an assessment of merit include how hard and how effectively that employee works to execute those policies and how well a prospective employee can be expected to do so.

So Long, and No Thanks for the Memories

Law school students and new recruits think they should run the major—or even minor—law firms at which they sought work.

In the days since Paul Weiss, Skadden Arps and other elite firms cut deals with the president to fend off punitive orders, their actions have set off protests and recruiting boycotts among the next wave of top young legal talent. Georgetown Law students canceled a recruiting event this week with Skadden Arps. A group of students and lawyers is circulating a missive on social media and over email, urging students at top schools to refrain from applying to the firms.
Several Columbia law students who signed on to start at the firms this summer are asking whether they can pull out of those commitments, one recruiter said. Junior lawyers at some firms, meanwhile, are rejecting their bosses’ requests to interview summer associates.

I wouldn’t call these Precious Ones “top young legal talent.” They’re too self-absorbed, too ate up with their own importance. The law firms are better off without these folks on their payroll.

So: bye, bye. Good luck to you in your sole proprietor law firms, and in your new small partnerships.

Hurt Feelings

Lots of ex-Federal employees are feeling the pain of being terminated. Many in the private sector think that’s unimportant, and they’re correct to think so.

Catherine Byrd, who owned and ran her own business before she retired:

I don’t feel bad for them a bit. I’ve worked in the private sector all my life[.]

She noted that she’d been fired a number of times in her early working days, and said,

You know what you do? You go out and find another job, and there are plenty of jobs to find.

As indeed there are, even if not in an area that lets the fired bureaucrat follow his bliss.

And so, we get the hurt feelings of government employees who have been terminated. Recently fired Meredith Lopez is upset over the alleged general callousness toward federal workers being fired.

I think people forget that working in public service is not just a job, it can be a calling for many people[.]
For me, it is really about the ability to help people and communities on a personal level[.]

Judy Cameron is upset at the very concept of being fired from her government job.

All I know is I did not appreciate being fired. Let me do something wrong to fire me… It was just “Oh here, let’s kick you out like trash.”

And, of course—because that’s where the clicks and eyeballs are—the press hypes these things while ignoring the fact that none of them incur an obligation on the part of any employer, much less the government, to retain folks just because those folks want a particular job.

No. A government employee needs to be terminated if the job position itself is duplicative, excess to the government’s objective needs, or otherwise unnecessary. Recall, during the Obama Shutdown of 2011, the EPA acknowledged that most of its employees were unnecessary, furloughing 90% of them for the duration of the shutdown.

A government employee needs to be terminated if his performance is subpar as measured objectively, which requires a cessation of inflating annual reports and the even harder step of eliminating union objections to terminating for merit reasons.