A Misunderstanding about (Government) Stimulus

Dr Alan Blinder, in a recent op-ed in The Wall Street Journal, notes that

A debate now rages in Europe over whether fiscal austerity—that is, higher taxes and less spending—helps or hinders growth.  That’s progress of sorts.

He’s right as far as he goes, but then he goes on.

[A] similar debate rages here in the US—with the lone exception that our pro-austerity crowd abhors tax increases.

Here are the beginnings of Binder’s misunderstanding.  I don’t know of a pro-austerity crowd anywhere in the US, at least among Republicans and Tea Partiers.  These folks are plainly pro-growth, and that clearly demands less government spending—and lower taxes.  Contrary to Progressives’ beliefs, it isn’t the government’s money, and the government doesn’t need as much of it as it tries to claim from us in taxes.

…help state and local governments maintain their spending, which has now dropped 6.4% since its 2008 peak[.]

It doesn’t get any clearer than this.  Nor the Feds, nor the states, nor local governments need to “maintain their spending.”  All levels of government need to reduce spending and quit competing with the private sector for goods and services, quit buying for the private sector the goods and services it can—and should—buy for itself.  It’s through private sector economic activity that comes growth, and jobs, which fuel growth.  All government spending can do is substitute for private sector spending—at the expense of taking money out of the private sector to pay for that spending, either in taxes today or taxes tomorrow.

Many Democrats also want to build and repair more roads, bridges, tunnels and the like….  Most Republicans reject that idea, too….

This is just a cynical distortion of the Republicans’ position, and it’s disappointing to see in someone who’s supposed to be a reasonably objective academic.  The need to work on our physical infrastructure is  bipartisanly recognized.  What the Progressives’ programs do, though, and what the Republicans object to, is simply transfer funds to Progressive-favored state and local governments and to union allies.  Honest funding support, that will help—help, mind you, not cover entirely—with actual work, and which funding is itself covered by spending cuts elsewhere, will find Republican support.  Look, for instance, to the 20+ jobs bills the Republican House has passed and that are languishing in the Senate because Blinder’s Democrats won’t even permit them to be debated, much less come to a vote.

He does have some specific ideas:

  •  Budget policy. For openers, as I advocated in these pages last month, we need a two-pronged fiscal package.  In the near term, we need modest stimulus, focused tightly on creating jobs.  But that stimulus should be paired with a vastly larger dose of long-run deficit reduction—perhaps 10 to 20 times as large as the stimulus—over the 10-year budget window.

Economically, this can be done; it’s not even that hard. But if Republicans continue to reject even deals comprised of $10 of spending cuts for each $1 of tax increases, it’s hard to see how we get there politically.

I debunked this here.

  •  Private investment. Republicans are right that business investment is the key to growth. Fortunately, business investment has done very nicely, thank you, despite the sluggish economy—growing 8.4% over the past year and at an annual rate of 10.8% over the past two years.  (The corresponding growth rates for GDP were about 2%.)  So while there’s always room for improvement, business investment is not part of the problem.  The best thing policy can do for private investment is to get the overall economy growing faster.

Indeed.  And the best policy for achieving that is reduced government spending competition with the private sector, lower taxes, and reduced regulatory burden—which has exploded under the present administration.  The EPA’s rules are especially onerous, irrelevant to the economy, and job-destroying.  HHS’ regulations also attack private sector job growth, as well as such minor things as constitutionally protected religious freedom.

  •  Public investment. Unlike private investment, inadequate public investment is part of the problem.  America’s infrastructure needs are so huge, and so painfully obvious, that it’s mind-boggling we’re not investing more.  The U.S. government can now borrow for five years at about 0.75% and for 10 years at about 1.7%.  Both rates are far below expected inflation, making real interest rates sharply negative.  Yet legions of skilled construction workers remain unemployed while we drive our cars over pothole-laden roads and creaky bridges.  Does this make sense?

Public “investment” is, indeed, part of the problem.  “There’s a sale on! Let’s go buy!  Think how much we can save at these prices!”  Think how much more we can save, if we don’t buy at all.  The existence of a sale, whether it’s in a lower price for a good or a lower price for borrowing, is no excuse at all for spending—or borrowing.  Spending and borrowing must have a legitimate purpose, not merely be “cheap.”  All those nickels borrowed today add up to lots of dollars owed—and so taxed for—tomorrow.

Moreover, this administration poured nearly $1 trillion into stimulus—including no small part of infrastructure maintenance buildout and maintenance—in 2009, and it’s been pouring out more since, in the form of loan guarantees, among other routes, for “green” energy infrastructure, among other things.  What have we gotten for all that “investment?” Transfers to unions, transfers to states for their own payoffs, bankrupt “green” energy companies, but no actual infrastructure maintenance buildout or maintenance.  Does this make sense?

  •  Education. Everyone knows that the returns to education, while large, are long delayed.  That means we have no time to waste.  We should be doing a much better job of building a better educated, more productive work force for the future.  A Council on Foreign Relations task force co-chaired by former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and former New York City Schools Chancellor Joel Klein recently argued that better K-12 education is critical to American leadership in the world and therefore to our national security.

Indeed, again.  Government needs to stop driving up the cost of education by subsidizing it.  We as a society need to stop stigmatizing those who lack a college degree.  College is not for everyone.  Nor do those in the trades need a college degree; they need a decent VoTech source of education and training—the sort of thing we used to get in our high schools all those years ago, and that could be improved upon by our community colleges—many of which do fill this bill.

Why in the world are we still arguing about this?

Because the Democrats and their Do-Nothing Senate, and the President, are in the way.  If it’s Republican, it’s to be ignored.  It’s all Bush’s fault.  It’s racist.  Pick a Progressive excuse.

Which candidate does that remind you of?

In terms of not understanding the distinction between economic growth and government growth?  That’s pretty clear.

President Obama’s Obamacare Tax Increase on the Middle Class

Straight from the horse’s mouth.  Chief Justice John Robert’s Majority Opinion includes this [emphasis added]:

The individual mandate cannot be upheld as an exercise of Congress’s power under the Commerce Clause.  That Clause authorizes Congress to regulate interstate commerce, not to order individuals to engage in it.  In this case, however, it is reasonable to con­strue what Congress has done as increasing taxes on those who have a certain amount of income, but choose to go without health insurance.  Such legislation is within Con­gress’s power to tax.

The whole opinion, and the two dissents, can be read here.

Europe’s Labor Problems

Aside from the debt and profligate spending problem, Europe’s labor laws are large contributors.  The Wall Street Journal recently described Italian labor law.  And Italy is not atypical for Europe.

  • Business pays 2/3 of each employee’s social security costs (I won’t go into how cheap we Americans are compared to the Europeans when it comes to social security).
  • Businesses with more than 10 employees (quoting the WSJ)

must submit an annual self-assessment to the national authorities outlining every possible health and safety hazard to which your employees might be subject.  These include stress that is work-related or caused by age, gender and racial differences.  You must also note all precautionary and individual measures to prevent risks, procedures to carry them out, the names of employees in charge of safety, as well as the physician whose presence is required for the assessment.

  • Businesses with more than 15 employees encounter very onerous limits on the ability to fire an employee, for any reason.
  • Businesses with more than 15 employees also must explicitly hire disabled—qualified or not—and must have at least 14 disabled employees when they go above 50 employees.  The businesses must maintain that 7% ratio at all larger sizes.
  • Businesses with more than 100 employees must submit to the government a biennial report on the gender dynamics within the company.  This report must include a tabulation of the men and women employed in each production unit, their functions and level within the company, details of compensation and benefits, and dates and reasons for recruitments, promotions and transfers, as well as the estimated revenue impact.

The WSJ cites the OECD as noting that

All of these protections and assurances, along with the bureaucracies that oversee them, subtract 47.6% from the average Italian wage….  Two-thirds of that bite comes before payroll, meaning many Italian workers are unaware of their gross cost to employers.

I mean, really.  YGTBSM.

Progressives and Freedom

From The Wall Street Journal:  Progressives are now actively lying about the National Federation of Independent Business because that organization is the formal lead plaintiff in the Obamacare lawsuit, which ruling the Supreme Court is scheduled to announce today.

Here’s what’s going on.

The chairmen of the House Progressive Caucus, Democrats Raul Grijalva [D, AZ] and Keith Ellison [D, MN], [wrote] a letter accusing the NFIB of acting against “the best interest of small business owners” and “the popular opinion of the American small business community.”

Because, of course, all those 300,000 small business NFIB members adore Obamacare.  These guys say so.

Then the WSJ notes:

…among the four million small businesses eligible for new tax credits if they provide health insurance for their workers, a mere 170,300 have signed up.

Hmm….

And they ask:

…if the NFIB is as unrepresentative as liberals claim, then why have its ranks grown by 5% since it became a plaintiff in the ObamaCare suit?

And they add:

Some 65% [of NFIB members, in an NFIB poll of its membership] believe ObamaCare will do the opposite [i.e., will increase health care costs] and 77% believe it will result in a higher tax burden, which are among the reasons the group joined the suit. One in five small businesses believes it’ll be forced to alter the benefits it offers employees.

Yeah.  That’s broad-based support for Obamacare, all right.  It’s their story, and they’re sticking to it.

Paper Tiger

There has been a disturbing development in the South China Sea, an area of the world toward which Our government claims it’s pivoting as central to American security.

Scarborough Shoal is a dinky little set of islands lying 140 miles west of Luzon Island, Republic of the Philippines, and 750 miles south of the People’s Republic of China.  This is a wholly unremarkable set of islands, except for the rich fishing and the equally rich oil deposits below the bottom of the region there.  And it’s entirely within the Philippine 200 mile Economic Exclusion Zone.

Because of its wealth, the PRC sent its fishing vessels and its armed patrol boats to the area in a naked attempt to occupy it.  The Philippine navy responded with two of its coast guard cutters, and the face-off lasted until a typhoon forced everyone to leave.

President Obama’s response?  Against the backdrop of a 1951 treaty that binds us to the defense of the Republic of the Philippines and that’s still, nominally, in force, Obama did nothing.  Nada.  Just meekly watched from the sidelines (if he was paying even that much attention).  He did not execute his favored tactic of getting a coterie of nations together to cry out and shake their collective finger very firmly at the Chinese.  He sent no USN destroyer to the area.  He raised no objection at all.  He left our ally to twist in the wind.

While this was going on, the PRC also sent a fishing boat into the territorial waters of the Republic of Palau, another dinky little island—population 21,000—way on the other side of the Philippines.  Palau objected, and when the Chinese vessel refused to leave, they fired on it, captured it, and forced the Chinese to pay a fine for their trespass.

As the WSJ (not quite) put it, it’s a sad day when the government of a tiny speck of an island shows more courage in standing up to an enemy than does our own President.