Never His Fault

Once again, President Barack Obama is scuttling away from his responsibility.  This time, he’s throwing his Secret Service under the bus.

You’re all aware that Obama cancelled for the duration all White House tours by the public, and that he did it because of Evil Republicans and their Satanic Sequester.  After the hoo-raw over his cancellation and the sheer pettiness of it, he’s started crawfishing.

He now is insisting “that the Secret Service was behind the…suspension of White House tours.”  When he passed on this little tidbit to the Republican caucus with whom he was meeting, the response he got was a round of “ahaaaaas.”

Obama, in response, told the lawmakers: “Hold on guys, we just talked about respect.”

Sorry, Ace.  You get respect the same way any American does: through actual deeds.  You certainly don’t get it because you think you’re special.

The Secret Service works for Obama; he doesn’t work for them.  They may have made their recommendation, they may have told him their “decision.”  But it was his—overriding—decision to accept their position.  He could have overruled them; it was entirely his choice not to.

This is just cowardice.

Magical Thinking

Well, that didn’t take long.  President Barack Obama already has failed his test.

The Progressives’ idea of a budget is out of the Senate Budget Committee, now, and on the Senate floor, where Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D, NV) will do his best to thrust it home with as little debate allowed as he can achieve.  Here’s the summary table (and scroll down a bit to this table; sorry you have to crane your neck); the whole thing can be viewed, in piecemeal form, on the Senate’s site:

Notice that.  Aside from continuing to gut Defense, overall spending continues apace, President Barack ObamaSenator Patty Murray (D, WA), the Budget Committee’s Chair, demands even more taxes from working Americans than he got in January, and our national debt explodes.

The Democrats want, with an absolutely straight face, to increase spending every year–$3.6 trillion in FY 2014, $4.05 trillion in FY 2016, and so on to $5.7 trillion in FY 2023, a 62% increase over the current level for FY 2013.

Reading the fine print in one of those piecemeal parts at the Senate site, we see that the Progressives want to create a(nother) $100 billion program aimed at generating new jobs, again by funding infrastructure work.  Of course, we know Obama already tried this, repeatedly, throughout his first term.  As he’s already confessed, “Shovel-ready was not as shovel-ready as we expected,” and as those earlier programs demonstrated, the jobs aren’t there at any time in his government programs.  This is magical thinking.

And it turns out Murray lied about those taxes, too, cynically understating them at “only” an additional $975 billion.  The Weekly Standard has this table, provided by a staffer for the Senate Budget Committee’s (Murray’s committee) minority membership:

Murray cynically understated Obama’s tax demands by fully one-third.  These $1.5 trillion in new taxes, combined with the $600 billion in new taxes Obama got at the start of the year, adds up to $2.1 trillion in new taxes being demanded in just these two and a half months.

Progressives just can’t stand to not raise taxes.  Their addiction to OPM is palpable.

And that debt.  The Progressives fully intend to explode it to $24 trillion by 2023, with annual interest payments running nearly to $800 billion.  This also assumes the market would be willing to buy such risky debt at those rates.  But then Obama denies, ostrich-like, that there’s any urgency to our debt fiasco.  This is more magical thinking.

All of this is predicated, too, on Obama’s/Murray’s pipedream of a GDP annual growth rate over the next 10 years of 4.2%-6.6% each year—rates we’ve never sustained in any 10 year period in our history.  With all of this taxing and spending taking money out of the private economy—the economy in which Americans actually live, work, and die—positing such rates is…wrong.

Matched with the $975 billion in claimed spending cuts, this isn’t even the balance about which he’s been yammering.  This is more…magical thinking.

This proposal is a disaster waiting to happen.

Obama’s Other Face

President Barack Obama is giving the appearance of wanting a bipartisan, compromise deal on our budget, deficit, and debt.  Is this real, this time, or just another version of the idle chit-chat and outright lies he’s passed off for the last five years?

The Wall Street Journal offers some metrics for assessing his behavior this time around.

  • Will he drop his demand for a tax increase outside of tax reform?  This has no chance of passing, and his continued insistence will poison the chance of any budget deal.  On tax reform he has willing GOP partners in Ways and Means Chairman Dave Camp and Ohio Senator Rob Portman, but the formula has to be lower rates in exchange for fewer loopholes.  Any additional revenue will have to come from the faster economic growth that will follow.
  • Will he agree to a flexible, generous guest-worker program on immigration?  The AFL-CIO wants a restrictive program with a political body determining when there is a labor shortage and how many visas can be granted in specific industries.  Anything close to the AFL-CIO plan won’t stop the flow of illegal immigrants coming to the US for work, but it ought to kill reform in Congress.
  • Will he put more than token entitlement reforms on the table?  As we wrote last week (“Obama’s Not So Grand Offer,” March 8), the President’s Medicare proposals don’t begin to solve the health-care spending problem.  Short of Paul Ryan’s premium-support plan, the only chance for reform worth the name is “comprehensive cost-sharing” that forces individuals to confront at least some of the costs of their own care.

These sound like a pretty good test to me.  It looks, from the Senate Democrats’ budget proposal, like he’s failed the test.

The Deficit Has A Silver Lining?

Dr Alan Blinder, Princeton University Professor of Economics and Public Affairs, had some thoughts on this.  His piece is fundamentally optimistic, but a few of his remarks jumped out at me.

Congress and the president have managed to agree on several measures that reduce the projected 10-year deficit considerably.

Reduced the 10-year deficit.  He writes of this as if it’s a good thing.  He writes of this as though that continued 10-year deficit, representing as it does an enormous expansion of an already ruinous debt, is a good thing.

Meanwhile, Republicans are talking far less menacingly about either shutting the government down or precipitating a debt crisis.

For which cynical straw man he declines to provide a single quote from a Republican—or Conservative—wherein such a one ever talked about shutting down the government or precipitating a debt crisis in recent history, other than in the context of Progressives manufacturing such things so they can decry them.

That law [the Budget Control Act of 2011] created land mines like the fiscal cliff, but it also cut spending by over $1.9 trillion once you include the associated interest savings, as you should.  (Here and elsewhere, I use the 10-year budget window 2014-2023 and recent estimates from the widely respected Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.)  That was all spending cuts, no tax increases.

Here Blinder is simply being disingenuous.  There were no spending cuts in that Act.  A reduction in the rate of spending increase is still a spending increase.  A Professor of Economics, even one at Princeton, knows that.

Then came the New Year’s Day agreement that averted the cliff. The headline number then was about $600 billion in tax increases.  But if you add in the spending cuts and the associated decrease in debt service, it came to another $850 billion or so.

See above.  And he’s exaggerating the magnitude of the spending increase reduction.

But imagine that our legislators agree instead on a smarter package of spending cuts and revenue raisers that amounts to the same amount of money [as the present sequester cuts].  After all, it’s only about 0.6% of GDP.  Then we’ll have achieved the $4 trillion target.  The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities estimates that doing so would be enough to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio at about 73%, which is a sensible goal for now.

There are a couple of things here.  “Cuts and revenue raisers” that achieve the same degree of…something.  Serious cuts in Federal spending would get the government out of the way of the economy, and its recovery—its enthusiastic performance—would raise plenty of revenue for the government, more so than it’s collecting now.  But Blinder and his fellow Progressives, with these demands for more taxes as the only possible revenue raisers are simply demonstrating their contempt for a free market and the wisdom of the individual Americans participating in it, preferring instead an economy centrally directed by Know Better Progressives.

The other thing is that stable debt-to-GDP at 73% nonsense.  This is an amazing thing even for a Princeton Professor to say.  There’s nothing at all stable about such a debt level.

Some of this “cost control” [in his claimed slowing rise in the cost of health care] is due to the weak economy: Hard times lead people to postpone or cancel some medical care.  But health-care inflation began to fall years before the recession began, which suggests that deeper forces are at work.  If we can somehow slow health-care costs to the rate of GDP growth, our long-run budget problem is basically solved.

On the effectiveness of President Barack Obama’s poor economy in holding down cost increases, well NSS.  “If we can somehow slow health-care costs…,” well the answer here is obvious—let a free market work its will in a competitive environment.  But, such an answer truly is not obvious to one who disdains the free market and that wisdom.

…fixation on reducing the budget deficit, to the exclusion of all other national goals, seems strangely anachronistic.  The nation has other priorities, too—such as faster growth and more jobs.

This also is an amazing thing.  The nation does have as critical economic and security imperatives faster growth and more jobs.  But these are not possible to achieve until the budget deficit is eliminated and the debt it drives reduced.

Obama’s Health “Insurance” Hiring Disincentives

Here’s the Obama Job Sharing Plan.  As a result of the looming rules of President Barack Obama’s Obamacare,

a local McDonalds has hired employees to operate the cash register or flip burgers for 20 hours a week and then the workers head to the nearby Burger King or Wendy’s to log another 20 hours. Other employees take the opposite shifts.

That’s because 30 hours counts as a full-time employee, and low-margin industries can’t afford the added costs of Obamacare insurance for full-timers.  Holding the employees further under that threshold—to 20 hours, for instance—gives those part-timers room to get another part-time job and so to have a full week’s worth of work and income.  Just with no employer-provided health insurance.  (Whether this is good or bad is a separate post; I’ll just say here that the “good” of it is far from established.) This is not atypical.

[Obamacare] requires firms with 50 or more “full-time equivalent workers” to offer health plans to employees who work more than 30 hours a week.  (The law says “equivalent” because two 15 hour a week workers equal one full-time worker.)  Employers that pass the 50-employee threshold and don’t offer insurance face a $2,000 penalty for each uncovered worker beyond 30 employees.  So by hiring the 50th worker, the firm pays a penalty on the previous 20 as well.  [Emphasis added]

That’s a $40,000 penalty for hiring the 50th worker.  The WSJ lays it out starkly:

If a company with 50 employees hires a new worker for $12 an hour for 29 hours a week, there is no health insurance requirement.  But suppose that worker moves to 30 hours a week.  This triggers the $2,000 federal penalty.  So to get 50 more hours of work a year from that employee, the extra cost to the employer rises to about $52 an hour—the $12 salary and the Obamacare tax of what works out to be $40 an hour.

That encourages hiring, all right.

There are other implications.

Businesses that hire young and lower-skilled workers are also starting to put a ceiling on the work week of below 30 hours. These firms are…”29ers.”  Part-time workers don’t have to be offered insurance under Obamacare.

These young and low-skilled workers are at the point of their careers where they’re starting to accumulate the work experience and habits that can lead to better jobs at higher pay.  Only they’re not accumulating them at the rate they otherwise could.  Which puts them well behind the job competition power curve compared to those who’ve managed that jump.

So much for upward mobility in the Obama régime.

Also with the Obama Job Sharing Plan, health insurance accessibility, for good or ill, is actively reduced.