Economic Fears and War

It would seem that European fears of the damage done by properly thorough economic sanctions against Russia for its invasion and occupation/partition of Ukraine might be overblown. As has been suggested before.

French bank Société Générale SA said Wednesday that a €525 million ($731.26 million) write-down on its Russian business pushed first-quarter net profit down 13%, while Carlsberg A/S and Imperial Tobacco Group PLC both said that falling sales in Russia and a weak ruble had cut profit and would weigh on revenue for the remainder of the year.

“Net profit down,” “cut profit.” Sounds like profits remain. Pretty small potatoes in some circles of sacrifice. That 13% drop for Société Générale, by the way, is to €315 million ($438.76 million) from €364 ($507). The pain…. And

Russia today accounts for only about 5% of the group’s total revenue….

The “damage” done Carlsberg and Imperial Tobacco is similar.

It’s true enough that Europe’s energy enterprises—especially Germany’s—that depend on Russian oil and gas will be hit harder, as well as those enterprises’ customers. But this is a wakeup call concerning the wisdom of depending on an aggressive and territorially acquisitive Russia for much of anything.

It’s an easily enough remedied situation, too, if time consuming.

Addendum to the Jobs Numbers

…about which I wrote earlier.

This graph (constructed from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Population Survey, Table A-1) comes from a report by Senator Jeff Sessions (R, AL), Ranking Member of the Senate Budget Committee.LaborForceParticipationRate_Sessions

Notice that. The labor force participation rate wasn’t affected at all by the Panic of 2008. Quite the contrary, the participation rate’s decline continued unaltered by the Panic—and unaltered by President Barack Obama’s policies. Closely tied to that failure is this: in 2007, just prior to the Panic, 146,273,000 Americans had jobs. As of last February, in the middle of that failed GDP quarter of which I wrote, 145,266,000 Americans had jobs—a decrease of a bit more than 1,000,000 Americans.

And Obama has been on the hustings bragging about that headline unemployment number.

Hmm….

Jobs Numbers

According to the headlines, our unemployment rate fell to 6.3% in April (from 6.7%); it hasn’t been that low since before the Panic of 2008. This also came as the private sector and state and local governments added 288,000 jobs. Good news, eh?

It is good news, for those 288,000 Americans. However. There’s always a however.

806,000 Americans gave up looking for work in this economy and dropped out of the labor force. The labor force participation rate fell to 62.8% (from 63.2% in March), the lowest rate in nearly 40 years. If this number had only held steady at March’s value, the unemployment rate would be in the 6.7%-6.8% range.

These data also come on the heels of our GDP datum for the first quarter of 2014, which ended in March: GDP grew at the sickly rate of 0.1% over the 4th quarter 2013.

The jobs report turns out to indicate a fine beginning for the second quarter of 2014.

Yet Another Thought on Social Security

James Pethokoukis, writing for AEIdeas, had one, and I have some thoughts on his thought.

Pethokoukis first:

To counter the anti-growth impact [of Americans’ of increasing lifespan and falling birthrates] you would need (a) greater labor-force participation, (b) higher birthrates, (c) greater innovation so each worker is more productive.

To which I add, (d) higher immigration rates with better assimilation into American society. We need more folks, with their fresh ideas, their initiative, their drive, their (conservative) family values and sense of responsibility, all of which are amply demonstrated by the lengths to which they go to get here.

Second [citing colleague Andrew G Biggs, who was writing in National Affairs], “Social Security’s government-provided benefits would be transformed into a flat universal benefit mean to improve social-insurance protections for low-income Americans.”

The short question is how to handle the erosive effects of inflation. That’s only partially, and hopefully, addressed by Biggs’ view that this would grow over time with wages. But there’s a larger problem, it’s in Biggs’ article, and it’s one that Pethokoukis missed.

The two parts of Biggs’ solution are these. First, enroll all workers in an employer-sponsored 401(k)/403(b) type device, with the employees required to contribute, say 1.5% of their pay and employers required to match that dollar for dollar. Second,

Social Security’s government-provided benefits would be transformed into a flat universal benefit to improve social-insurance protections for low-income Americans. … Each American reaching the normal retirement age would receive a benefit set at the poverty threshold for individuals over age 65….

The larger problem involves both of these, and both are solved by privatizing Social Security and making each person’s payments go into a retirement account for the payer’s future retirement rather than for strangers’ current retirement (they’re not even specifically for the payer’s parents’ current retirement).

We’re used to paying 6.2% of our payroll tax into social security. Pay those 6.2% instead into a retirement plan (401(k)/403(b), Traditional or Roth IRA, etc) whose proceeds are for the sole benefit of the payer, and which accounts are under the sole control of the payer, for his own future retirement. Also, remove the income and contribution caps. So what if the better off can pay in more in than can the less well off? Those larger payments in no way hurt the less well off, and the increased consumption available to those better off is good for the economy—and everyone else. Next, free the employer from the matching payroll tax altogether. The employer will benefit from that reduction in labor cost and can use the money to make the business more competitive—including matching employee retirement contributions as a competitive device—which will be good for hiring.

This makes each worker responsible for his future welfare, and he’ll do a better job of taking care of that than the government can, as demonstrated by Social Security’s current fiscal straits. It also eliminates the need for Biggs’ flat benefit for the less well off. Their own retirement accounts, allowed to accrue for their future benefit instead of being paid out immediately as Social Security does now, and at a faster rate than Biggs’ alternative, does the deed.

Jobs and Income in the Current “Recovery”

AEIdeas‘ James Pethokoukis has some data in his article, “Obama’s low-wage jobs recovery.” He talked about the type of jobs being…created…in this so-called recovery; the graph below highlights his point.NetChangeEmployment

There’s another aspect to this, though, and that’s the income implication of the type of jobs being created. I constructed the table below from the data in the graph above, using the mid-points of each industry type wage range and assuming a 2080 hour work year—that is, everyone, even the low-wage industry worker, either works all 52 weeks of the year or gets paid in full for vacation time, including holidays, to keep the arithmetic simple.

Wage Mid-Point Jobs Lost (Thousands) Jobs Gained (Thousands) Not Jobs Gained (Thousands) Net Annual Wages Gained/Lost (Thousands $)
High Wage: $26.3250 (3,579) 2,603 (976) ($53,441,856)
Medium Wage: $16.8650 (3,240) 2,282 (958) ($33,605,874)
Low Wage: $11.4050 (1,973) 3,824 1,851 $43,910,162
Total: ($43,137,567)

You’re reading that right. The only net gain in income is in the low end industries; these folks, by being able to go back to work, have gotten a net increase of some $44 billion in their annual income. But that’s swamped by the losses in the other two categories, and the nation as a whole has lost some $43 billion in annual income.

This is a fine recovery, yes, indeed.