Monthly Archives: November 2014

JFK’s Murder Solved?

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Here’s the thing: no one has satisfactorily explained the motive for President John Kennedy’s murder. What was Oswald up to?

New research and more accurate interpretation of existing data have revealed the answer, and as a side effect explained an additional murder. Recall that JFK liked the ladies, including especially his wife Jacqueline and the actress Marilyn Monroe. In the end, though, Kennedy decided he’d rather Marilyn than Jackie: what was he to do?

Recall also, Kennedy’s fecklessness during the Bay of Pigs invasion and the Cuban Missile Crisis. He had no hope of planning any sort of switch. So baby brother Bobby stepped in. He contracted a hit on Jackie so the widowed President could take up, openly, with his preferred lady.

Come Dallas on that fateful day, and it turns out the sharp shooter, Lee Harvey Oswald, wasn’t all that—he missed, and hit Kennedy instead.

But wait; there’s more. Jackie got wind of the deal. It took her awhile, but in 1968, her own contract, set up through some Greek connections she’d been able to reach, was executed, and Brother Bobby was murdered in Los Angeles. After that, under cover of her remark, “If they’re killing Kennedys, then my children are targets…. I want to get out of this country,” she did so, and four months later married a Greek shipping…entrepreneur.

The murders of the two Kennedy brothers explained.

Aside: someone has advised this author that this theory ranks with the one that says the Royals offed Princess Diana.

Collective Social Action

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A practical lesson from the People’s Republic of China on societal collective action.

When a fabric company called Jiangyin Xueyuan Textile Co collapsed, the troubles soon cascaded through other firms in this mill town.

A machinery maker, paper producer, manufacturer of faux-wood flooring and textile maker had one thing in common. They had promised, in the event of default, to repay the loans taken on by Xueyuan.

Indeed, they had all guaranteed each other’s loans, promising to pay the lender should one of them fail. Yet in the PRC’s current economy, they’re all having trouble making their own payments, and some have, as a result, refused to honor their guarantees of the others’.

Xueyuan’s court-appointed bankruptcy administrator, Zhang Fuliang, had this to say on the general practice:

[T]he big problem among private firms is that you owe me, I owe you, and in the end, if something goes wrong, then everyone gets tangled up together[.]

A policy outcome likely will look like this one: The People’s Bank of China, the PRC’s central bank, has lowered its benchmark lending rates, in the expectation that “private” and “commercial” banks will lower theirs commensurately and thereby stimulate the PRC’s economy. However,

banks likely will hesitate to lower the cost of loans for fear of hurting their profits.

Those profits aren’t only tied to the spread between the banks’ deposit interest paid and loan interest collected. They’re also tied to the likelihood the loans will be repaid at all. When an individual firm fails, the loan is lost, but the loss is limited to the single firm. When an individual firm fails, and the network of fellow firm guarantors default on their guaranty, the single loan still is lost, but now the bank must worry about the credit worthiness of each member of that network of guarantors. That’s going to hold up interest rates for the entire network as a hedge against the loan’s default—and as a hedge against default on more of the loans the network is guaranteeing for each other. And as a hedge against the loans made to other networks. And….

Hmm….

Talk, But Don’t Act

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Now the White House policy is hitting the State Department’s ability to keep secrets from our enemies.

Weeks before the State Department’s Nov 16 shutdown of its unclassified email system in the face of unprecedented hacking attacks, auditors took the department’s management to task for ignoring warnings about their lax security habits and chronic failure to enact protections against high-tech intruders.

The situation was so bad, the auditors say in a highly censored report, that they “identified control deficiencies across a total of 102 different systems reviewed over five years, yet many of the same deficiencies have persisted.”

State’s leadership, though, claims it’s no big deal, and certainly not as bad as the auditors say.

The State’s bureaucracy disputes the audit’s finding that State’s info-tech weaknesses amount to a “significant deficiency” in its security….

And anyway, according to State’s Chief Information Officer Steven Taylor,

[W]e have created a foundation for correcting several existing weaknesses and an ability to address new issues as they arise.

Talking about talking. Never mind that the auditors noted that

OIG [State’s Office of the Inspector General] has reported deficiencies related to risk management since its FY 2010 audit. Many of the same deficiencies remained uncorrected in FY 2014.

And

[W]e identified control deficiencies across a total of 102 different systems reviewed over 5 years, yet many of the same deficiencies have persisted.

These all are highly intelligent people, professionals in their field, who surely know what they’re doing—and not doing. I have to wonder about the motivations behind their decision to talk, but not act.

The audit can be read here and here.

Illinois and Money

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The government of Illinois—a Democratic Party-controlled government at the time—reduced the cost of its public pension programs by passing a law reducing future cost growth, specifically, by reducing the size of future increases in pension payouts, without eliminating those increases.

Illinois’ Constitution has this to say on the matter of public pensions:

Membership in any pension or retirement system of the State, any unit of local government or school district, or any agency or instrumentality thereof, shall be an enforceable contractual relationship, the benefits of which shall not be diminished or impaired.

Illinois State Judge John Belz decided that the enacted law was a violation of Illinois’ constitution and struck the law.

The state of Illinois made a constitutionally protected promise to its employees concerning their pension benefits[.]

And

[I]t is clear that if something qualifies as a benefit of the enforceable contractual relationship resulting from membership in one of the State’s pension or retirement systems, it cannot be diminished or impaired.

Yet what “qualifies as a benefit” is a matter of statutory definition, a matter set by the Illinois’ legislature. Belz’ ruling indicates that these legislative definitions are, in fact, amendments to Illinois’ constitution—else those definitions must be changeable at legislative initiative, as the law Belz has struck did.

Among his objections is this:

The Act adds new language to the Pension Code….

Now the whole Pension Code, enacted by the legislature and not by constitutional convention, is suddenly a part of the State’s constitution.

Belz’ ruling goes on in that vein.

Belz also seems to have misunderstood what the legislature has done in concrete terms. As he clearly understands, the legislature acted to reduce the size of future pension payouts, changing, for instance, the way a (future) pensioner’s 3% annual increase in pension payment is calculated. The pensioner still gets an increase, though. A smaller increase, as any third grade pupil in arithmetic easily understands, still is an increase. A pensioner’s pension in no way is diminished or impaired, by the definition of increase.

Finally, a practical question: a State’s police powers are an assertion that the State can use its governance offices to act to protect public safety and welfare—to prevent a State from being unable to honor its financial commitments and defaulting altogether, for instance. Thus, if Illinois’ government is unable to act to pay its pension obligations, how does Belz propose those obligations be met?

The judge screwed up, and the State is appealing.

 

Belz’ summary judgment order can be read here.

Happy Thanksgiving

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I first posted this in 2011. I think it bears repeating today.

Today I thought I’d share some thoughts on the matter offered by other folks who are a bit more articulate than I. In the meantime, be thankful for who we are and where we are: whatever straits we in which we find ourselves, we’re orders of magnitude better off than most everyone else in the world.

Now therefore I do recommend and assign Thursday the 26th day of November next to be devoted by the People of these States to the service of that great and glorious Being, who is the beneficent Author of all the good that was, that is, or that will be — That we may then all unite in rendering unto him our sincere and humble thanks — for his kind care and protection of the People of this country previous to their becoming a Nation — for the signal and manifold mercies, and the favorable interpositions of his providence, which we experienced in the course and conclusion of the late war — for the great degree of tranquility, union, and plenty, which we have since enjoyed — for the peaceable and rational manner in which we have been enabled to establish constitutions of government for our safety and happiness, and particularly the national One now lately instituted, for the civil and religious liberty with which we are blessed, and the means we have of acquiring and diffusing useful knowledge; and in general for all the great and various favors which he hath been pleased to confer upon us.
-George Washington, 3 October 1789

The year that is drawing toward its close has been filled with the blessings of fruitful fields and healthful skies. To these bounties, which are so constantly enjoyed that we are prone to forget the source from which they come, others have been added which are of so extraordinary a nature that they cannot fail to penetrate and soften even the heart which is habitually insensible to the ever-watchful providence of Almighty God. … No human counsel hath devised nor hath any mortal hand worked out these great things. They are the gracious gifts of the Most High God, who, while dealing with us in anger for our sins, hath nevertheless remembered mercy.
-Abraham Lincoln, 3 October 1863

We are profoundly grateful for the blessings bestowed upon us: the preservation of our freedom, so dearly bought and so highly prized; our opportunities for human welfare and happiness, so limitless in their scope; our material prosperity, so far surpassing that of earlier years; and our private spiritual blessings, so deeply cherished by all. For these we offer fervent thanks to God.
-Harry S Truman, 22 November 1950

Perhaps no custom reveals our character as a Nation so clearly as our celebration of Thanksgiving Day. Rooted deeply in our Judeo-Christian heritage, the practice of offering thanksgiving underscores our unshakable belief in God as the foundation of our Nation and our firm reliance upon Him from Whom all blessings flow.
-Ronald W Reagan, 27 November 1986

This Thanksgiving, as we enjoy the company of family and friends, let us gratefully turn our hearts to God, the loving Source of all Life and Liberty. Let us seek His forgiveness for our shortcomings and transgressions and renew our determination to remain a people worthy of His continued favor and protection. Acknowledging our dependence on the Almighty, obeying His Commandments, and reaching out to help those who do not share fully in this Nation’s bounty is the most heartfelt and meaningful answer we can give to the timeless appeal of the Psalmist: ‘O give thanks to the Lord for He is good: for his steadfast love endures forever.’
-George H W Bush, 14 November 1990

And then enjoy yourselves; have plain, raw fun. That’s not just allowed, it’s a Good in its own right.