A Thought on Interest Rates

William Silber had one on the Wall Street Journal‘s Sunday opinion pages. Naturally, I have one on his.

The core of Silber’s thought is this:

The so-called neutral rate of interest is observed in hindsight—by whether the economy is expanding fast enough to keep unemployment low but not too fast to provoke higher inflation. By that measure, the current target interest rate of 4.25% to 4.50% seems about right. I say “about right” because the unemployment rate is low but the rate of inflation is somewhat elevated. That suggests, if anything, the target interest rate should be higher to push down inflation.

Silber is right on the first part. He’s wrong on the second. The current target interest rate “seems about right” because it historically correlates with the Fed’s inflation target of 2%. Now it’s time for the Fed to sit down and be quiet—and to say in so many words that that’s what it’s going to do. Excursions above and below the inflation target are just the noise of a free market. The time is not yet—if ever in the current market conditions—to make any sort of move on target interest rates.

This, too, Has a Fix

The lede intimates the problem:

Dual-earning married couples are estimated to face a loss of $18,100 in annual benefits in seven years without the passage of some sort of entitlement reform, according to a new study.

And this:

“At the same time, those retirees might experience reduced access to health care due to an 11% cut in Medicare Hospital Insurance payments. The cuts would grow over time as scheduled benefits continue to outpace dedicated revenues,” the analysis [by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget] also read.

Florida Republican Senator Rick Scott has proposed legislation to address this:

…create a “Budget Point of Order” and require a two-thirds vote against any legislation that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) “determines would create a “Budget Point of Order” and require a two-thirds vote against any legislation that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) “determines would reduce or cut existing Medicare and Social Security benefits.”

But that would only increase costs to all of us in the form of steadily rising taxes. After all, any tax bill that didn’t raise taxes sufficiently to suit CBO would be claimed by it to reduce or cut those benefits and so would require that supermajority vote.

No, the better solution is to entirely privatize Social Security and to return responsibility for Medicare entirely to the States under their respective Medicaid programs.

Social Security could be privatized entirely for those currently younger than 50 years—or under 40 years if the longer transition period would be more politically palatable. Continue to require folks to pay those Social Security taxes, but the money would go into retirement accounts strictly for the benefit of the taxpayer and his future retirement, instead of being sent right back out for the current benefit of existing retirees. This would give the taxpayer/future retiree skin in his own game, and I guarantee you that this individual would do a lot better job of managing his retirement money than the government has been doing—especially with the government confronted as it is with both a dwindling supply of employed persons paying the taxes to produce current payouts and an increasing post-retirement life span. The transition would be deucedly expensive for the government (all of us taxpayers), but that expense is only going to explode if nothing else is done.

On the other hand, Medicare conversion doesn’t need so long a transition, and it would produce immediate savings for the Federal budget—its real budget, not the fictional one that pretends Social Security and Medicare aren’t part of government expenditures. For this conversion, it’s a simple matter of converting the Medicare transfer to each State to a Year Zero block grant solely to the State’s Medicaid program. Then each year over the next 10, reduce the size of the block grant by 10% of the Year Zero amount and reduce each worker’s Medicare part of his payroll tax and his employer’s contribution to that payroll tax by 10% of that Year Zero tax collection. At the end of those 10 years, the Federal government would be out of the States’ health coverage business, the States would have their responsibility for and control over their own programs wholly restored, and each worker and employer would be out from under that portion of the payroll tax.

Distortions by Progressive-Democrats

The latest are illustrated by two graphs from The Wall Street Journal. The graphs illustrate the impact on us taxpayers—rich and poor—of the recently passed tax cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

The first shows in dollar terms the impact of the tax cuts.

Progressive-Democratic Party politicians favor this graph because it emphasizes dollars while ignoring both their importance to the taxpayer relative to his income and it ignores the percentage of income received by each taxpayer and the percentage of the tax burden paid by each taxpayer—which for the rich is a larger percentage than their percentage share of income earned.

The second illustrates the changes in percentage terms, which demonstrate the importance of those dollars to taxpayers’ incomes.

Overall, the tax cuts become more important as income level drops from the wealthiest to the poorest. Those with increasingly lower incomes receive increasingly higher tax reductions relative to their incomes, with the poorest getting the greatest relative reductions. The Evil Rich—the top 20% of income earners—get far smaller relative tax drops, with the Evilest Rich—those heinous top 1% of income earners—getting the smallest relative drop.

And that’s entirely appropriate since they start out with the largest tax burden, one that’s much larger even than their relative share of income. This is a detail that Progressive-Democrats actively ignore in their distortionate descriptions of the bill.

My Sympathy Meter…

…is flashing Empty. On a note related to another post of mine, there’s this out of Tucson, AZ:

Tucson Unified School District (TUSD), based in Tucson, Arizona, is reportedly facing financial and enrollment struggles after universal school choice passed in the state in 2022.
A TUSD official told KGUN that approximately 4,000 students used vouchers to either go to private schools or homeschool.
The trend of parents overlooking TUSD cost the school district about $20 million. TUSD’s Chief Financial Officer, Ricky Hernandez, told the local outlet that TUSD is “preparing for continued declines in enrollment as a result” of vouchers.

This, after TUSD as a whole had these test score outcomes, as of the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 school years:

In Tucson Unified District, 28% of elementary students tested at or above the proficient level for reading, and 23% tested at or above that level for math. Also, 27% of middle school students tested at or above the proficient level for reading, and 19% tested at or above that level for math. And 48% of high school students tested at or above the proficient level for reading, and 42% tested at or above that level for math.

Here’s a thought—bear with me on this; it’s a strange concept for many—maybe the TUSD managers and teachers should do a better job of teaching the children in their educational charge the basics and advanced principles of reading, writing, and arithmetic, with budgeting, finance, and economics added in for the district’s grade schools, junior highs, and high schools, respectively. Room in the school day for that last, especially, could be made by eliminating the claptrap of DEI, “flexible” gender, pornographic books in grade school libraries, and other Woke ideologies.

A Clear Choice

The recently passed OBBBA has Federal funding for private school tuition in the form of tax credits—private schools being, primarily, charter and voucher schools. States must opt into the program, though; the tax credits won’t be available automatically.

As The Wall Street Journal headline put it, Blue States Face Big Decision. And then,

Now comes a protracted debate at the state level. Progressives and public-school groups object to funding private schools and say the new program will hurt public education. Supporters say the money will give families options outside of their neighborhood school.

The thing is, though, public schools are already beyond increases in hurting, especially in blue States—pupil test scores are bad and falling (rising recently only against the prior Wuhan Virus Situation school lockout steep drop), and public school’s pupil test scores especially lag those private schools’ student outcomes, as well as the test scores of homeschooled students.

A clear choice, indeed, and over the coming months we’ll see very clearly just how opposed to school choice and children’s education are Progressive-Democrat politician-run States and municipalities, and just how far in thrall are those politicians to teachers unions.