An Iraqi Mess

Iraqi leadership, such as it is, thinking it’s helpless to devise solutions on its own, depends entirely on the US to “wave a wand” and make things all better.

[A] State Department briefer portrayed the central Iraqi government as desperate for the Americans to solve the problem for them. “All of them look to us for answers and solutions and like a magic wand,” the briefer said. “There’s a lot of that.”

And this:

[S]oon after ISIS overran Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city, the Kurdish military force known as the Peshmerga swiftly moved to seize control of Kirkuk, the strategically important city with enormous reserves of oil that the Kurds have long viewed as their historic capital in their quest for full autonomy.

“Just look at where the Peshmerga is now compared to where they were two weeks ago,” the [same] State Department briefer instructed reporters. “… Some facts on the ground can be created that might not be reversed.”

This is some of what comes of an attempt to lift a tribal society, reduced by a generation of barbaric tyranny, into nationhood when that attempt is cut short before the task is seriously begun. The environment created by Saddam Hussein’s butchery and madness required answers handed down from the outside just to stabilize the situation and begin to repair emotional, economic, and infrastructure damage. The task of erecting a nation—the political requirements, the societal needs, the things that must be interactively taught, not handed down from on high—had barely begun when the US left Iraq in toto.

Iran, on the other hand, while willing to “help” the existing Iraqi government does not want US involvement at all. Iran wants a puppet state west of the Shat al-Arab and the Hawizah Marshes and not the sovereign nation that might result from US aid to Iraq in this crisis. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei [Supreme Leader of Iran] had this to say on the matter:

We strongly oppose the intervention of the US and others in the domestic affairs of Iraq. The main dispute in Iraq is between those who want Iraq to join the US camp and those who seek an independent Iraq.

The US aims to bring its own blind followers to power.

Iran wants to halt the Iraqi efforts to erect a nation in place of a tribal polity buried under the ashes of Saddam’s barbarity. Iran will “take care of” Iraq and the Iraqis.

Don’t Lead. Act. They’ll Follow, or Not

Secretary of State (and Secretary of the Treasury) James Baker offered A Roadmap for Restoring American Leadership in a recent Wall Street Journal, and it’s worth a careful read. While his seven steps are entirely appropriate, though, it occurs to me that they must come as steps two through eight, instead.

There are many things we need to do first, and we need to do them unilaterally, without waiting on other nations to…follow. Consult, certainly. Attempt to persuade, certainly. Attempt to get others to act, also if not in concert, certainly.

But, to paraphrase a man, some things can’t wait.  Some things need prompt action. We’re still big enough, prosperous enough, strong enough to do those things alone, and where the urgency of the matter won’t pause for consensus, we have an obligation to act first and build consensus later. See Russia’s partition of Ukraine, ISIS’ dismantling of Iraq, if you doubt that.

There’s another aspect of leading that’s missed in the multilateralist, gotta have a UN imprimatur, gotta have European/Russian/Chinese/whomever agreement to our leading before we can…lead, also. That aspect is “by example.”

We can’t set any kind of useful example if we aren’t acting.

ISIS’ Purpose in Invading Iraq

The assumed purpose for the terrorist organization’s invasion is to seize Iraq as part of the Caliphate the terrorists claim to be restoring. This may be true. However, there are other purposes that may be in play, also, if not instead.

One such purpose would be to destabilize Iraq while exposing the paper tiger that President Barack Obama’s United States has become. This purpose envisions ISIS shooting the place up, exacerbating along the way extant sectarian violence, and then withdrawing into Syria, if not into strongholds in northwestern Iraq. Keeping captured weapons, while demonstrating ISIS’ reach, to their economic betterment from…supporters…of the drive for the Caliphate.

And there’s this:

[ISIS has] obtained significant numbers of tanks, trucks, and US-origin Humvees in recent military operations in Iraq and those arms are being shipped to al Qaeda rebels in Syria[.]

Now one branch of Syrian rebels has several examples of our weaponry.

Oh, and this, admittedly a bit of a stretch as an ISIS purpose: Iranian forces are now operating in Iraq. The enemy of my enemy bit.

Hmm….

In Which Russia Creates an Opportunity

Russia on Monday cut gas supplies to Ukraine as a payment deadline passed and negotiators failed to reach a deal on gas prices and unpaid bills amid continued fighting in eastern Ukraine.

Ukraine’s Naftogaz company head Andriy Kobolev said Russia had cut the supply of gas to Ukraine, but that Ukraine can manage without Russian gas until December.

There’s no reason at all we can’t fill this newly created market with American natural gas, even if it will take longer than next December to get the delivery chain up and running.

By extension and demonstration, this also creates a market opportunity to sell American natural gas throughout Europe. Even with a seaborne “pipeline,” we can deliver at a lower price than Russia can.

All we need is an administration willing to take advantage of the opportunity.

A Pet Peeve

And in my hubris, I’m going to write about it. In an article about ISIS likely having captured a supply of Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, Fox News commits the crime. Unfortunately, Fox News is just one of far too many news organizations that do this.

fallen into the hands of Sunni insurgents.

And

fall into the hands of the radical group.

No. These are not “insurgents,” nor are they a “radical group.” ISIS is a terrorist organization. Full stop.