Coalition and Air Strikes

The US has expanded its “air campaign” against ISIS to targets in Syria, including targets involving an affiliate of al Qaeda, a gang calling itself The Khorasan Group.

I used quotes around the term because the only ones calling it an air campaign are the Obama administration and the members of the coalition that flew into Syria along with the US. The coalition, the administration now is willing to say, consists of the US, France (which is limiting its participation to airstrikes in Iraq—recall that Syria was a French client before it became a Russian client) Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.

The US, though, has declined to identify which targets which of our coalition mates struck, how much ordinance each of them delivered, or any other material battle participation information, except to note that Qatari aircraft merely accompanied American aircraft without releasing ordinance or conducting any pre- or post-strike reconnaissance. Apparently their pilots were simply filling a periodic cross-country nav currency square. It’s also clear that the size of the Arab participation was token only: each of the Arab coalition mates flew only two or four aircraft in the strikes.

The US led off the effort with a cluster of Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from a ship in the Red Sea and one in the Arabian Gulf. Following that, the aircraft went in and struck a total of 24 targets. Count ’em.

Unfortunately, even a sustained series of strikes like these can hardly be called an air “campaign,” and it’s worth noting that no one—not the US, as Obama has repeatedly promised the ISIS terrorists—and not our putative Arab allies, who are even more proximately threatened, is willing to go up against these terrorists on the ground. (The sole exception are the Kurds, who are under direct attack, and we’re doing a woefully inadequate job of arming and training them. Even the Iraqi “army,” also under direct attack, cuts and runs at every opportunity, rather than going onto the offensive and attacking, on the ground, these terrorists.) Air strikes alone, even a serious campaign, cannot defeat an enemy that already occupies extensive territory.

No, the Syria strikes were just more potshots, in the style of our month-long series of strikes in Iraq; they’re not part of a serious campaign, in coordination with an equally extensive ground campaign, of striking simultaneously all across ISIS-held territory, attacking infrastructure, equipment, weapons and ammunition depots, the terrorists themselves—strategic as well as tactical targets.

In fact, given the loud, public advance notice President Barack Obama gave—two weeks’ worth—to anyone who would listen, including explicitly the Syrian and Iranian governments, very few ISIS terrorists—some 120, or so—were killed: the buildings hit, including a couple of ammo dumps and a command center, were largely empty when the coalition struck.

This isn’t a serious effort; it won’t be, as it runs counter to Obama’s six-year theme that if we only sit down and talk, things will be resolved amicably.

Given the different…goals…of Obama and the terrorists, I’m reminded, again, of the parable of the mouse and the owl. The mouse thinks the owl’s ways are wrong; the owl thinks the mouse is lunch.

Some Ally

Under pressure from its Arab neighbors, Qatar has expelled some key players in the terrorist Muslim Brotherhood, whose mission, among other things, is to overthrow secular governments throughout the Middle East and replace them with MB-approved governments. Those expellees are making a beeline for…Turkey, a NATO member and supposedly staunch Middle East ally of the US.

However.

In addition to giving asylum to the MB’s leadership, Turkey

  • is host to the Palestinian Authority’s Hamas branch “overseas command center”
  • allows ISIS to use Turkey’s territory to sell ISIS-stolen oil on Turkey’s black market
  • refused to join the US’ effort to eliminate ISIS in Iraq and Syria—Turkey won’t even allow air missions against ISIS to originate from allied bases in Turkey
  • allows “radical Islamists” to freely cross its borders with Syria and Iraq

And this:

Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said Saturday that 49 hostages who were seized by Islamic militants in Iraq [from the Turkish Consulate in Mosul] have been freed and safely returned to Turkey….

Given what ISIS does with its other hostages, and that coziness outlined above, this sounds like part of a payoff.

Some ally, indeed.

Graduated Escalation

A five-week campaign of US airstrikes against Islamic State militants in Iraq has forced them to conceal their movements and blunted their acquisition of territory, US officials said.

However, the reaction of the group’s fighters—moving and living in more stealthy ways—also makes them harder to target.

The group…is now less likely to operate openly, having fighters hide among local populations.

Another lesson this administration has chosen to disregard, this lesson from our Vietnam War.

President Barack Obama authorized only scattered potshots for “humanitarian” reasons. At the time, ISIS forces were exposed, moving in bunches, and vulnerable to serious destruction had there been a serious air campaign launched against them.

With his decision to not strike hard, Obama has given these terrorists time to adapt to the battlefield, and he has made their destruction much harder to achieve.

With his decision to give the terrorists time to adapt by hiding among civilians—as Obama knew that they would do, with the Vietnam War’s lesson of the Viet Cong before him—Obama also has made the destruction of these terrorists much more…expensive…to achieve.

And he still can’t recognized these as terrorists; he insists on legitimizing their behavior by calling them militants.

‘Twas a famous Commander in Chief.

Of Course the President Knows This

President Obama’s determination to train Syrian rebels to serve as ground troops against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria leaves the United States dependent on a diverse group riven by infighting, with no shared leadership and with hard-line Islamists as its most effective fighters.

It’s a fantasy.

The Syrian rebels in which President Barack Obama has become so interested of late—those former doctors, farmers, pharmacists, and so forth”—are scattered in the Syrian west and disorganized. His efforts to train and arm them so far have been…unreliable.

The Obama administration’s plans to arm Syrian rebels have been troubled by false starts since April 2013, when Mr Obama first authorized the CIA to begin a secret training mission in Jordan.

Months after the authorization, the White House still had not delivered details to Congress about the CIA’s plans, and it was not until September 2013 that the first American-trained rebels returned to Syria from Jordan.

To date, the CIA mission in Jordan has trained 2,000 to 3,000 Syrian rebels, according to American and Arab officials.

Those 3,000 (to take the generous side of the estimate) would go against 20,000-32,000 ISIS fighters in Syria and Iraq combined.

These Syrian rebels, though, say their mission is to toss Bashar al Assad and set up an entirely different government for Syria; there’s no room for engaging additional foes.

Now see this map, adapted from the one in The New York Times article at the first link above.SyriaMap

The labels are hard to read: the Red squares are Syrian government held locations, Blue squares are opposition forces other than ISIS—including Obama’s “good” rebels—Purple squares are ISIS. The major circles are, from North to South, Aleppo, Homs, and Damascus.

The “good” Syrian rebels are in the Syrian west. ISIS forces are in the Syrian east, where they’re contiguous with their forces in Iraq. The rebels would have to figure out how to disengage from al Assad’s forces in the west, quitting their mission; boogie on over to the east; and then engage ISIS. Which, courtesy of the Iraqi “army’s” glide step south, away from ISIS, has lots of American equipment, weapons, and ammunition.

Of course Obama knows this. But he gave a speech, and now he expects the problem to fade from the public’s attention.

Terrorist butchery may not let Obama have his way.

 

Aside for Fox News‘ Julie Banderas and Catherine Herridge, the latter of whom especially should know better: these, now three, men were not murdered—that’s a criminal act. No, these three men were butchered—acts of evil.

What Has Ego Wrought?

After the administration released details of the July mission to rescue journalist James Foley and others in Syria, intelligence suggests ISIS dispersed the remaining hostages to multiple locations, making them harder to locate, a military source told Fox News.

In addition, the source added guard forces around the hostages doubled while widely publicized reporting about the scope of new aerial surveillance in the region caused ISIS to change its pattern of behavior on the ground.

[Emphasis above added] Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Media Operations Captain John Kirby had this on those leaks:

We regret it at the time we had to talk about this. There was absolutely no intention of ever having to talk about that rescue attempt but because of leaks to certain reporters, it forced our hand to try and provide some context to that.

Rather circular. It was members of President Barack Obama’s administration who decided to “leak” the news of that prior rescue attempt “to certain reporters;” then Obama used those “leaks” as an excuse to talk more fully about that failed attempt, to support a claim that he’d been trying all along.

This also comes against the backdrop of Obama’s State Department actively interfering with the efforts of Foley’s family to get him back.

This cynical play for sympathy—”I tried my best”—has made it all the harder to rescue any other ISIS hostages.

In the end, too, Obama’s administration didn’t even have the courtesy, much less the morality, to tell Foley’s family directly that he’d been lost. They had to hear the news from a journalist in a phone call.

All for one man’s petty ego.