Help, or Watch?

Unfortunately, we already know which President Barack Obama will select, as he’s made clear in another venue.

The cause for concern this time is the economic strait in which Ukraine finds itself.

The contraction in Ukraine’s economy accelerated to 17.6% in the first quarter compared with a year earlier, the State Statistics Service said Friday, hammered by a conflict with Russia-backed separatists in its eastern industrial heartland that has slashed industrial output.

Obama—and Europe, to be fair—have already refused to supply Ukraine with the wherewithal to defend itself militarily against Russia’s invasion and support of the rebels in eastern Ukraine and Crimea. Indeed, his Secretary of State already has surrendered both areas to Russian occupation with his offer to lift economic sanctions against Russia if only they will agree to go no further.

If we—or the Europeans, but they seem even more timid than our own administration—don’t start providing serious economic aid to the Ukrainians, Russia won’t need further military advances in order to gain control over all of Ukraine. Ukraine’s economic collapse will hand what’s left of the nation to the Russians without any further ado.

Instead, we should be arming the Ukrainians and ratcheting up the sanctions on Russia, driving the Russians into economic collapse. It’s anybody’s guess, though, whether Ukraine can hold out for another year and a half at which point we might have a more responsible and capable White House.

The Obama Guarantee

President Barack Obama made this guarantee in his statement at the end of his recent Meeting of the Deputies involving the Gulf Cooperation Council national leadership seconds.

The United States is prepared to work jointly with the GCC states to deter and confront an external threat to any GCC state’s territorial integrity that is inconsistent with the UN Charter. In the event of such aggression or the threat of such aggression, the United States stands ready to work with our GCC partners to determine urgently what action may be appropriate, using the means at our collective disposal, including the potential use of military force, for the defense of our GCC partners.

Translation: we agree to talk about a response to an ongoing attack against one of you, and that response might include a military one. Hopefully, we’ll reach some sort of accommodation before you’ve been overrun.

That’s reassuring. There’s a real line there, one that should not be crossed. Else Obama might shake his finger very firmly at you.

“We are severely concerned….”

Indeed, we are. PRC Deputy Director of Foreign Ministry Information Department Hua Chunying said

We are severely concerned about relevant remarks made by the American side. We believe the American side needs to make clarification on that[.]

That’s in response to SecDef Ash Carter’s remarks that he’d asked his folks to look into potential responses to the PRC’s seizure and occupation of the South and East China Seas. In particular, those responses might

include flying Navy surveillance aircraft over islands and sending US Navy ships within 12 nautical miles of reefs that have been built up in recent months around the Spratly Islands.

We should be severely concerned. Those surveillance aircraft should be accompanied by fighter aircraft, and they should buzz the construction sites. And keeping the Navy a dozen miles away, instead of sailing up close and personal, seems awfully timorous to me.

Those islands, after all, are in international waters, and they’re in the Exclusive Economic Zones of Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines—who have shown a willingness to resolve their dispute without military occupation. Thus, their aircraft and naval ships should be accompanying ours on those close approaches.

Our own action alone, though, would be a good start on a proper response to the PRC’s aggression.

Also creating severe concern—or should be—is this bit:

Privately, many diplomats and leaders in the region say they worry about the potentially destabilizing impact of a confrontation between Washington and Beijing.

No, guys, what would be destabilizing would be letting that PRC aggression go unchallenged.

Northern Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Program

Are they getting ready to break out and vastly expand their arsenal and stockpile?

After three years of diplomatic deadlock, the Obama administration says it is willing to hold preliminary talks with North Korea to probe its intentions and assess the prospects of ridding the country of nuclear weapons.

Given the Obama administration’s performance with Iran, it’s a distinct possibility that northern Korea’s nuclear weapons program is about to take off.

In the case of Iran, the US has joined with several world powers in negotiating the framework agreement to prevent Teheran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

North Korea, though, does not seem to be looking to disarm anytime soon.

And neither is Iran looking at nuclear disarmament. There’s a hint there.

And

“We want to meet with the North first without any conditions to determine whether it has real commitment (toward denuclearization),” [RoK’s Special Representative for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs Hwang Joon-kook] said in Beijing on Thursday.

What was it someone said about doing the same thing over and over and over and expecting different results?

Oh, and here’s northern Korea’s answer:

Pyongyang answered the overture with a fresh show of force—test-firing a new ballistic missile from a submarine.

North Korea claimed Saturday that it successfully test-fired the newly developed ballistic missile. Not long after that announcement, South Korean officials said the North fired three anti-ship cruise missiles into the sea off its east coast.

That’s pretty clear, to those willing to listen.

The Land Grab Goes On

Even if they have to create the land, first.

China’s mysterious campaign to build artificial islands in disputed waters of the South China Sea has grown to cover roughly 2,000 acres, a senior defense official said Friday, as the Pentagon issued a report warning the sites could be used to bolster the country’s military infrastructure.

There’s nothing mysterious about it. This sort of thing is being built to support the People’s Republic of China’s air and sea forces as the PRC moves to concretize and enforce its attempts to occupy the East and South China Seas.

The DOD report warned that while Beijing’s island construction intent is unclear, five emerging outposts in the Spratly Islands could be used for surveillance systems, harbors and logistical support. The report said they could also hold “at least one airfield.”

That’s just dissembling or timidity. There’s nothing unclear about PRC intentions with these construction projects. Many of the sites are within the Exclusive Economic Zones of other nations on the rim of the Seas. If the PRC were just building these things to support fishery, or oil and gas, or rare earth mining and processing, they’d get permission from the host nations and cut costs by partnering with them for the development of these sites and split the processors’ output.

The PRC, though, is holding out, on threat of gunfire, those nations.