The President’s Defeatist Budget

It’s illustrated by Table S-12 Economic Assumptions from the White House’s Summary Tables, repeated below.

The table is hard to read; the money line is the third one, labeled “Real GDP, percent change, year/year.”  Beginning in the year 2018—just four years from now—President Barack Obama and his “economic” advisors predict our nation’s economic output—our GDP—growth rate to shrink from 3.1% growth per year to an historic low rate, and abysmal rate, to 2.36% in 2-019, and then to less than 2.5% after that.  And to stay at that abysmal level as far as the prediction can see.

This is the defeatist attitude of the Progressive.  1979 Presidential Candidate Ronald Reagan had a different vision [emphasis added]:

Someone once said that the difference between an American and any other kind of person is that an American lives in anticipation of the future because he knows it will be a great place. Other people fear the future as just a repetition of past failures.  There’s a lot of truth in that.  If there is one thing we are sure of it is that history need not be relived; that nothing is impossible, and that man is capable of improving his circumstances beyond what we are told is fact.

There are those in our land today, however, who would have us believe that the United States, like other great civilizations of the past, has reached the zenith of its power; that we are weak and fearful, reduced to bickering with each other and no longer possessed of the will to cope with our problems.

Much of this talk has come from leaders who claim that our problems are too difficult to handle.  We are supposed to meekly accept their failures as the most which humanly can be done.  They tell us we must learn to live with less, and teach our children that their lives will be less full and prosperous than ours have been; that the America of the coming years will be a place where—because of our past excesses—it will be impossible to dream and make those dreams come true.

I don’t believe that.  And, I don’t believe you do either.  That is why I am seeking the presidency.  I cannot and will not stand by and see this great country destroy itself.  Our leaders attempt to blame their failures on circumstances beyond their control, on false estimates by unknown, unidentifiable experts who rewrite modern history in an attempt to convince us our high standard of living, the result of thrift and hard work, is somehow selfish extravagance which we must renounce as we join in sharing scarcity.  I don’t agree that our nation must resign itself to inevitable decline, yielding its proud position to other hands.  I am totally unwilling to see this country fail in its obligation to itself and to the other free peoples of the world.

The crisis we face is not the result of any failure of the American spirit; it is a failure of our leaders to establish rational goals and give our people something to order their lives by.

We can, indeed, do better than that Progressive budget implies.  We just need to get the Progressives out of the way.  Beginning this year, but necessarily continuing in 2016 and the election cycles beyond.

Our Economic Recovery

The Congressional Budget Office had some remarks last Thursday.

More than four and a half years after the end of the recession, employment has risen sluggishly—much more slowly than it grew, on average, during the four previous recoveries that lasted more than one year.  At the same time, the unemployment rate has fallen only partway back to its prerecession level…and a significant part of that improvement is attributable to a decline in labor force participation that has occurred as an unusually large number of people have stopped looking for work….  Moreover, the rate of long-term unemployment—the percentage of the labor force that has been out of work for more than 26 consecutive weeks—remains extraordinarily high.

And

CBO estimates that GDP was 7½% smaller than potential (maximum sustainable) GDP at the end of the recession; by the end of 2013, less than one-half of that gap had been closed.  With output growing so slowly, payrolls have increased slowly as well—and the slack in the labor market that can be seen in the elevated unemployment rate and in part of the reduction in the rate of labor force participation mirrors the gap between actual and potential GDP.

And [emphasis in the original]

Employment at the end of 2013 was about 6 million jobs short of where it would be if the unemployment rate had returned to its prerecession level and if the participation rate had risen to the level it would have attained without the current cyclical weakness. Those factors account roughly equally for the shortfall.

Any questions about the effectiveness of the Obama administration’s economic policies?

Union Greed, Extended

Included in President Barack Obama’s latest budget proposal was a 1% raise for Federal employees.  Of course, in this time of profligate spending and exploding debt, that’s not enough for public service unions.

David Cox, president of the American Federation of Government Employees, the nation’s largest federal employee union, said Monday that the 1% increase is “pitiful” and fails to compensate for sacrifice by government workers.

“Federal employees have endured years of pay freezes and cuts in retirement benefits,” Cox said in a statement.  “Federal employees deserve a meaningful pay raise, not a token increase that will be more than eaten up by rising living costs, including higher retirement and healthcare costs.”

And

Union leaders argue the planned increase is not enough to compensate for recent hardships endured by federal workers, who will see an estimated $120 billion in lower wages and benefits during the next decade due to the pay freezes, according to the American Federation of Government Employees.

“I strongly believe that federal employees deserve more, and this amount is inadequate,” [National Treasury Employees Union President Colleen] Kelley [said].  “There is no question in my mind that inadequate raises will have consequences on recruitment and retention.”

All Americans have been sacrificing in this failed recovery, especially in the private sector, where too many have no job at all in which to get a 1% pay raise, and some Americans have been sacrificing far more in defense of this country—and these government unions—against threats and attacks by our enemies.  Government union employees are hardly special, except perhaps in their own minds.  If government employees don’t like their “rewards” for doing their jobs, they don’t have to stay in those jobs.  Not even government employment is a jobs welfare program.

These guys “deserve” a pay raise based on what useful criteria?  The actual “meritorious” job performance of the IRS?  Of State?  DoJ?

What rising living costs are being claimed in an environment of artificially depressed interest rates and low inflation?

Rising healthcare costs?  You mean Obamacare, which you guys (and your private sector counterparts) enthusiastically supported?

Beuller? Beuller?  Anyone?

The bit about lower future wages and benefits is especially…amusing.  This is of a piece with the fantasy of future-year “cuts” that exist only in the minds of those trapped in the Beltway Imaginary Friends World.

As to those cried over consequences to recruitment and retention, that works for me; we have too many Federal employees, anyway.  During the recent Democratic Party shutdown of the government, the EPA rated 94% of its employees non-essential, for instance.  And see my earlier remark about nobody being held in a government job against his will.

Misallocation of Resources

…driven by Big Government.

JP Morgan Chase & Co said Tuesday it will cut more jobs at bank branches and its mortgage unit this year than previously planned, as the largest US lender adjusts to slowing home-loan demand and customers’ growing preference to bank online.

That’s one aspect of the restructuring.  JPM says they’ll lose some 8,000 employees from its branches and its mortgage unit.  However, they’re looking to increase their “controls staff” by some 3,000.  A company’s controls staff are the folks dedicated to ensuring company compliance with government laws and regulations, as well as with its own internal rules.

Are the two related?  Not directly, although burgeoning Federal rules are hampering the housing industry and mortgage lending, generally.  Yet the fact remains,

The new figures show…a continued buildup in the bank’s staffing levels dedicated to dealing with regulators and legal issues.

An increase of 3,000 for its controls staff out of a total company employment of some 260,000 (net of those cuts) might not seem like much, but its Controls section is much smaller, and this is a significant (re)allocation of its employment emphasis.

The problem is, compliance isn’t productivity.  Compliance employees don’t increase the amount of product—or improve competition for product sales—in an economy.  All they can do is cost money to appease government.

“Pass the Bill…”

“…in order to see what’s in it….”

Here’s another of those tidbits that’s in it that Pelosi and her gang chose not to know about before passing Obamacare:

Tucked deep in the Affordable Care Act is language requiring all restaurants with at least 20 locations to list nutritional information alongside each and every item on their menu.

Sit-down restaurant chains, with their menus now required to be cluttered with “nutrition” information instead of letting their patrons see a readable menu—because Big Government knows better—are also faced, unfortunately, with a rapid-fire alteration of their menus as this “nutrition” information gets frequently “updated:” recall how rapidly the USDA’s food pyramid has been changing over the last several years.

Those places have it easy, though.  Consider the walk-/drive-in places, like hamburger joints and pizza houses, where the customer gets to mix and match from among “each and every item” to form a custom meal to buy.  As Peter Doocy put it at the above link:

Take Domino’s.  There are 34 million different pizza combinations available at the chain, when all crusts and cheeses and toppings are factored in.

Now imagine walking into a Domino’s and navigating a menu board with 34 million different options on it.

And in Domino’s case (and most pizza houses, come to that),

90% of their business comes in over the phone or online.  And none of those people ever set foot in the store, where the menu board would be.

Think about the advertising brochures Domino’s might have to send out to potential callers that included this information.  Think about how many pages on their Web site would be needed to carry this information.

Think about an utterly mendacious law that needs to be repealed, even if its replacement is the status quo ante.