Some Arithmetic Regarding Social Welfare

This arithmetic centers on the Western canonical welfare State of France, but the lessons apply to us also.

Today there are 39 seniors for every 100 working-age people in France. But by 2070 working-age French will account for only 50% of the population, down from more than 55% in 2023.

That works out to ratios of 1.8 working age persons for every retiree and 1 working age person per retiree, respectively. Each working age person in 2070 will have a retiree on his payroll whether he wants that or not.

That’s the outer bound.

[M]any of France’s working-age ranks aren’t actually working. The French unemployment rate was 7.7% in October 2025….

That reduces today’s ratio to 1.6 actually working person for each retiree. That’s an outer bound on the burden actually laded onto the worker. Those working age unemployed, those 5+ of the 100 who are unemployed, are being supported him, too.

Our demographics are only a couple of generations behind France.

Red Tape Redundancy

A letter-writer in Monday’s Letters section of The Wall Street Journal was rightly concerned about red tape redundancy, but he missed the mark on one form of it.

One can’t work with children without undergoing specific training and, in many states, extensive background checks. There’s value in those measures, but how about some coordination?
While living in New Jersey, I was fingerprinted for my teaching license in Somerset County and, later, in Middlesex County, despite having permanent certification in New York. I was then fingerprinted for gun purchases, coaching recreational soccer, and teaching Sunday school. At some point, it all becomes too exhausting.

There’s nothing redundant about being checked via immutable personal characteristics at each of those application points. Fingerprinting is an important way of determining that the person doing the applying is who he claims to be. Those multiple applications may or may not be by the same person.

Having been IDed by fingerprints and confirmed to be the same person across those multiple applications, though, there should be no need to repeat the rest of the applications beyond what’s unique to the function being applied for. Those repeats are what would be redundant and want better coordination.

Academic Hysteria

Texas Tech University’s Chancellor has published a decision tree/flow chart regarding the inclusion or exclusion of advocacy/promotion of race or sex-based prejudice in the courses the university teaches, and the ideologs in the professorial population are in an uproar. The decision tree (see the link) clearly reins in the heretofore unfettered professors’ ability to “teach” whatever ideology they felt like and requires them, instead, to show the relevance of their material, first to the course and second to the purpose of the course.

The reaction of the ideologs in that population is hysterical. Andrew Martin, Texas Tech Professor of Drawing and Painting, for instance (although, to be sure, at least he has the integrity to go on the record with his concerns):

This is disastrous. History is full of examples of what happens when authoritarian governments gain control of the educational institutions of a country or a society. That is the death of freedom.

No, today’s examples, rather, center on the results of one-sided, extremist control of education. The Chancellor’s move is a restoration of balance and of a focus on actual education.

Martin’s hysteria continued with this bit:

[I]f I welcome a student, whose identity is controversial, to my classroom, and they make work about that identity, is that advocacy? Does that mean I’m subject to disciplinary action?

The decision tree plainly deals only with what the professor professes; there is no mention of what the students do in his classroom. In Martin’s own example, his concern should be with technique and symbolism in the student’s art effort, not with the professor’s approval or disapproval of the art’s content. That’s clear to anyone not overcome with hysteria over being reined in and returned to a focus on the material he’s hired to teach.

Rules of War

This is triggered by a Wall Street Journal op-ed by Gerard Baker. Baker argued that the Trump administration might be going too far with its seeming deviation from purported rules of war [emphasis added].

Waging war according to legal principles seems designed to hobble us. We play by a code of conduct, that nebulous thing we have reified as “international law.” Our enemies murder civilians wantonly, fly passenger planes into buildings, kill captured prisoners, ship arms and poison to our shores that ruin innocent lives. Yet we somehow feel obliged to give them the due process and benefit of law they laugh at. It can seem, to echo a phrase used in another cinematic setting, as if we are constantly bringing a knife to a gunfight.
That is why I suspect most people aren’t too troubled by what the US military has been doing in the Caribbean the past three months. They should be.

But not to the extent of calling off the operations. To modify an old saw somewhat for clarity, the ends provide the excusal or lack of it in the means used. Bigger ends—the defeat of Nazi Germany and Fascist Japan vis-à-vis firebombing entire cities, stopping or vastly reducing the flow of population killing drugs like fentanyl from terrorist or drug cartel-controlled nations by shooting up their smuggling boats on the high seas—excuse bigger deviations.

I do not entirely agree with Baker, and I do not entirely disagree. My own view is this (and full disclosure: I’ve written a book on the matter: A Conservative’s View of the Conduct of Just Wars).

Rules of war, rationales for starting or responding to one and allowed techniques for fighting one once joined, are for opposing combatants who substantially agree on the rules and follow them. When one of the combatants eschews those rules, following their own procedures that have little to no confluence with civilization, then those rules of war should cease to be strictures and should become, instead, mere guidelines, limits on how to fight that should be used to the extent possible, but never allowed to cost victory, whether of any battle, offensive, or campaign or of the overall war.

Blindly adhering to the rules of war and therefrom losing the war is far more costly, not just secularly, but morally as well. The loss, with subsequent conquering by the barbaric fighter, enshrines the barbarian’s “rules” in adamantine for generations. The barbarians’ victories in mid-5th century Europe and in mid-15th century western Asia were followed in both regions by centuries of dark age barbarity.

The area between adhering to laws of war too assiduously and going too far in violating them is a very broad gray area, obscured in real time by Clausewitzian fog of war. That fog exists in the political dimensions of the decision to go to war and its subsequent prosecution as much as in the military dimensions of preparing for war and then fighting it.

We should be watchful more than concerned about what the US military has been doing in the Caribbean the past three months.

They Could Just Get Off Their Collective Behinds

The nations of Europe are concerned about any peace deal regarding the barbarian’s invasion of Ukraine leaving Ukraine and those European nations vulnerable to later attacks on either.

The leaders of the UK, France, and Germany met in British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Downing Street residence with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday, their latest effort to influence negotiations as the US pushes for a swift agreement to end the war.

Zelenskyy’s concern should be Europe’s as well:

“Russia is insisting we give up land, we don’t want to give anything away.” Zelensky added that he couldn’t cede land legally or morally.
“This is what we are fighting for[.]”

If Europe wants the Influence in US-Led Peace Talks on War in Ukraine that the headline mentions, the best and fastest way to achieve that influence is to bypass the US proposals and simply to start transferring to Ukraine the equipment, logistics, and financial support that the UA and the Ukrainian government personnel say they need, in the amounts they need them, and on the schedule they say they need them. Stop waiting on the US to make the first move. Stop worrying about what the US might think of them for seeing to Ukraine’s and to their own interests first.

After all, the only reliable peace with the barbarian that’s achievable is a defeat of the barbarian that includes his being driven entirely out of Ukraine.

It’s true enough that European military equipment isn’t as good as American. It is, though, a generation or two better than what the Russians are putting into the field. That difference is heavily magnified when put into the hands of Ukrainian fighters, who themselves are better and more determined then the barbarians they’re facing, especially as they are fighting for their nation’s—and their wives’ and children’s and mothers’ and sisters’—survival.

On the other hand, it would fit snugly the premise of some that Europe’s nations don’t give a fig about Ukraine—viz., their reluctance to act without US approval or first move—only concerning themselves with their own security. The nations’ concerns about their own safety are valid in themselves. They know the solution, and it’s the same as for Ukraine.