Windfall Taxes

With rising (finally) interest rates in Europe, European governments are starting to hatch what they’re pleased to call windfall tax plans.

European banks have started to reap higher profits from rising interest rates—and governments are already starting to clamp down on them.
In Spain, the government has laid out plans to tax lenders on their rising income and use the money to alleviate higher living costs for the population. Hungary has imposed a similar measure, and the Czech Republic, where inflation is above 17%, is also considering such a move. In Poland, where mortgages carry variable rates that are quickly rising, the government placed a moratorium on repayments to help borrowers.

Nor is this tax hatch limited to banks.

In other areas too, European governments are acting quickly when judging companies to be earning abnormally large profits. The UK has said it would introduce a windfall tax on energy companies, and Spain is imposing a similar levy as well as the new tax on banks.

Usw.

As usual, I have questions.

Define “windfall.” No glittering generalities, what constitutes a windfall profit, and based on what economic theory?

When does a windfall profit stop being windfall and becomes the normal level of profit? Again, no glittering generalities; be specific.

Related to that: discriminate between the new, reasonably steady state level of profit and “excess profit.” To do this discrimination it is, of course, necessary to define “excess profit,” with that definition devoid of glittering generalities and supported by clearly identified economic theory.

Back to windfall profit becoming the normal profit level. Does that recognition necessarily mean the prior “windfall” assessment was mistaken? If so, would that mean that the money collected as windfall taxes were mistakenly collected and a refund owed?

And finally, how many politicians will confront those questions? How many of those actually will offer concrete, measurable answers?

Will the West Proceed?

In the face of the Group of Seven Club’s moves to impose a price cap on Russian crude exports globally, Russian President Vladimir Putin now threatens

to curtail the export of grain from Ukraine and said Moscow was ready to extend its rationing of natural-gas exports and cut off oil and refined products if the West went ahead….

And

Mr Putin said Wednesday that Russia had contractual obligations on energy deliveries but would reconsider them if a price cap were imposed.
“We simply will not fulfill [our contracts]. In general, we will not deliver anything if it contradicts our interests,” he told an audience of officials and business leaders. “We will not deliver gas, nor oil, nor coal, nor heating fuel. We will not deliver anything.”

This would result in temporary near-term pain for the West, to be sure, with winter a few months away. But it would result in permanent and disastrous pain for Russia.

Near-term for the West: that winter (which so far looks to be relatively mild, but weather forecasts…), and tight supplies of natural gas being squirreled away, along with iffy potentials for bringing recently shut down nuclear power plants back on line and keeping others scheduled for closure on line.

Temporary: Europe can find other sources of natural gas, oil, and coal (including, regarding the first two, plussing up North Sea production and building additional pipelines) for their power production plants and move away from Russian sources altogether and permanently. Especially if the West can get President Joe Biden (D) out of the way of American oil and natural gas production and export.

Long-term pain for Putin: he needs a minimum of $70-$80 oil in order to pay for his war against Ukraine—replacing equipment combat losses, providing food, fuel, ammunition, and other consumables for his surviving forces—along with the rest of his economy, which is almost entirely extractive, which potentiates his long-term vulnerability.

Permanent: he’ll have lost permanently his Western markets, leaving him with selling into the People’s Republic of China—and President Xi Jining will be forcing his own purchase price on Putin, a price made the firmer by the PRC’s own current economic strait. Further, those sales will require PRC assistance to develop: new Siberian oil and natural gas wells and pipelines (presently nearly non-existent) to deliver well output to the PRC. All of which will exacerbate Russia’s subordination to the PRC.

Aside: it’s true that Putin has markets in India and Turkey, but with Turkey, drastic as that nation’s needs are, its economy is too small to take up much of Putin’s oil. India has too ready access to too many alternative markets to be taken for much of a ride by Putin.

The salient question is whether the West has the stomach for what it takes to achieve victory. The jury is still out on that. Especially given who’s the nominal leader of the West.

Surveillance State, Part 2

Another one from New York. It seems that US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley’s Stand for America PAC, a 501(c)(4) organization with a legally protected list of donors has had that list released by the NY AG’s Charities Bureau to Politico, which then proceeded to publish that list.

The Charities Bureau is an arm of New York Attorney General Letitia James’ (the same one who “consulted” with then-FBI Director James Comey to suppress any hint of investigation of Hillary Clinton’s classified email handling ‘way back in 2016) Attorney General office.

Never mind that the leak was illegal. Never mind that the Supreme Court in Prosperity Foundation v Bonta—just a year ago—had ruled that the California AG’s blanket demand that all charities disclose donor information was unconstitutional.

Letitia James, a Progressive-Democrat through and through, cares not a fig for any law that’s inconvenient to her. She’s going to collect non-Progressive-Democrat data and release it whenever she takes a notion to.

Anathema

In response to President Joe Biden’s (D) constant accusations of half of Americans being “semi-fascists” and “threats to our democracy,” Fox News‘ Mark Meredith asked Biden’s Press Secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre what percentage of the 74 million people who voted for Trump in the 2020 election the White House regarded as extremists. Jean-Pierre’s answer (keeping in mind that a Press Secretary speaks the President’s words, not her own):

I’m talking about specifically MAGA office holders. That’s what we’re talking about. We’re talking about MAGA office holders who have put forth an agenda that is extreme.

Because wanting to Make America Great Again is extreme. This is what Biden and his Progressive-Democrat Party are so angry, so threatening about. A strong America is anathema to them.

Surveillance States

That’s what New York and California are becoming, only instead of using cameras, they want to use our banking institutions.

Visa Inc, Mastercard Inc, and American Express Co should begin tracking gun sales and flagging suspicious purchases to law enforcement, similar to how financial institutions look out for money laundering, the attorneys general of New York and California said.

And

The three leading credit-card companies should take a front-line role in trying to prevent mass shootings and reduce the risk of gun trafficking, California Attorney General Rob Bonta and New York Attorney General Letitia James, both Democrats, said Friday in a letter sent to the companies.

Because honest Americans buying firearms are similar to money launderers: buying guns is inherently suspicious, claim these Progressive-Democrat AGs and their States’ governments.

On the other hand, in pressing for this government-mandated financial institution surveillance, California and New York Attorneys General Rob Bonta and Letitia James (both Progressive-Democrats) wrote,

If tracking MCCs could stop just one mass shooting or derail one gun trafficker aiming to flood the streets with guns, the change would be justified.

Do they mean, for instance, then-US Attorney General Eric Holder’s Operation Fast and Furious, which ran guns to Mexican drug cartels?