The Progressive Endgame

What Progressives don’t understand—won’t accept—is that, as Eric Falkenstein wrote

People get most of their pleasure, and meaning, being useful to others, which includes inspiring the admiration or happiness of others by one’s actions. Every time I make my daughter squeal with delight makes me thankful to be alive, because I know she really loves me, and I work to provide her with things and habits that will make her prosper, and hope that at some point after I’m gone she will remember me with sincere gratitude.

This made especially in the actual community interactions of individuals.  Progressives are only willing to help their fellows by government diktat, not directly with their personal resources.  I’ve written elsewhere about who donates to charity, for instance, but it bears repeating: Conservatives donate 3.5% to 4.5% of their incomes; Liberals just 1.25% to 1.5%.  And further,

A healthy wage is a strong correlate with one’s usefulness to non-family members, especially if you work in field without a lot of regulation.

Adam Smith understood this.  John Locke and our Founders understood this.  The “invisible hand” and the existence of a social compact both are founded on the not-so-enlightened self-interest—the greed—of the individuals participating in the commerce and in the formation of the social compact.  Free commerce, and the republican government over which the compact members are sovereign, are what lead to the greatest material and moral prosperity of the individuals involved.  The first is self-evident.  The second derives from that material prosperity: being useful to others, indeed, satisfying our duty to others (which involves such mundane things as honoring our commitments, here to provide our mutual support to defend and preserve our—and our fellows’—individual and several inalienable Rights, to help those less fortunate than ourselves, and so on) is enormously facilitated by personal prosperity (which, just incidentally, also creates community prosperity): we have more wherewithal with which to satisfy our individual obligations (which are, don’t forget, individual, not collective).

Falkenstein concludes

[Eric Hoffer considered that] intellectuals found free societies a threat because such societies didn’t need mandarins directing them, and if not flattered would help incite the masses to some sort of revolution.  A man is likely to mind his own business when it is worth minding, and so those unhappy with their own meaningless affairs will focus on minding other people’s business.  Hoffer noted one must not merely provide for those without meaning in their lives, but provide against them, because in a democracy and market economy their preferences will have power.  Those who see their lives as inferior and wasted crave equality and fraternity more than they do freedom, and this can cause a Republic to fall to a democracy, and ultimately a tyranny.

Thus,

In other words, Hoffer describes the essence of the Liberal [I say Progressive—ed.] desire to micromanage society into perfect equality at the expense of liberty.  A coalition of intellectuals and the underclass, both of whom feel unappreciated.  We haven’t figured out a good outlet for these do-gooders, or a good way for those without a purpose to find life rewarding, so they continue to plague us with their plans and angst.

Food Stamps and Poverty

John Hinderaker, at Power Line, notes that the Progressives in the Senate have voted down even a modest (some might say trivial) reduction in Federal spending on food stamps—using your tax money.  (Note, by the way, that 100% of the spending on food stamps is by the Feds; no state spends one red cent of state monies on these.)  The offered reductions were in the form of three  amendments, two put forward by Jeff Sessions (R, AL):

  • establish a federal asset test to ensure that food stamps aren’t going to families that may not have an income but have tens of thousands of dollars in savings or may even live in a million-dollar home
  • prevent states from waiving federal eligibility requirements for the program
  • eliminate the bonuses that the federal government now pays to states that deliberately swell the ranks of food stamp recipients.

The spending mandated by the Farm Bill to which these amendments were to be attached is shockingly weighted, as this graph shows: There are a couple of other aspects of this Progressive demand to spend your money on their food stamps.  Forty-six million Americans currently live below the poverty line as a result of President Obama’s failed economic and social welfare policies.  Thirty-nine states have no limits at all on the fiscal well-being of a family in determining that family’s eligibility for food stamps—anyone who applies qualifies—and twenty-eight states have limits that are more than 130% above the Federal Poverty Guideline (which differs in a trivial way from the Federal Poverty Threshold that the Census Bureau uses to determine the number of Americans living in poverty).

Of those 39 states (the full list can be seen in Table 1 of the Congressional Research Service’s “The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program: Categorical Eligibility“), California, Illinois, and New York alone account for 70.5 million Americans.

Under Federal law, which the Progressives have refused to alter in any meaningful way, vastly more Americans are eligible for food stamps than are actually living in poverty.  Food stamps no longer are a program to help the needy; they’re a program to get and keep Americans dependent on a Progressive-run government for their welfare.  They’re a Progressive Incumbency Welfare program.

Failure of the Euro—a False Fear from Moral Hazard

“The euro is in trouble and only Germany can fix it.”  That’s the meme—and the fear—described in a recent Spiegel Online piece.

Much of the euro zone and EU “leadership” is pushing for a “bank union,” a “debt repayment fund,” a communalization of (southern Europe) debt across Europe in the form of euro bonds.  Without one or more of these, goes the plaint, there is no way to stop the debt crisis.

But these worthies make no coherent case for why the taxpayers of one country should be held liable for the debts of other countries’ governments—or of other countries’ private institutions.  Indeed, this amortization across the sound and responsible can only damage, if not break, the sound and responsible economies and create an enormous moral hazard by indemnifying the irresponsible from the consequences of their profligacy.  This indemnification can only encourage yet more of the same.

Subsidizing anything only produces more of that thing, without making it any more accessible to the originally targeted population, and the schemes above only subsidize borrowing.  This is the way to prolong the debt crisis, it is not a solution to it.  These proposals do not even pretend to an imposition of fiscal discipline, either from within the fiscally irresponsible nations themselves or from without by the sound nations withholding further lending.  The courses proposed will only have the effect of punishing the sound for their soundness and they will reduce those sound nations’ own willingness (much less their ability) to maintain their own fiscal responsibility.

If euro bonds were introduced, goes one claim, countries like Italy and Portugal could take on large amounts of new debt without having to fear effective monitoring of their government spending.  Yet this is an aspect of moral hazard.  Jens Weidmann, President of the Deutche Bundesbank, the German central bank, points out that if debts were shared, “liability and control would have to be in conformity with one another.”  Indeed.  But if such unity were achieved, the empirical evidence demonstrates that it would be by loosening the discipline of the responsible countries, the direct opposite of the needed outcome.  The profligate borrowers, bailouts in hand, will have no incentive to mend their own ways, to seek discipline.

Italy, for instance, has a debt-to-GDP ratio of 120 percent. The proposed courses of action would mean that Rome could transfer a significant fraction of its debt to a shared euro debt fund, for instance.  The Italians thus would have even less incentive to introduce necessary structural reforms.   There’s that moral hazard.

For all this, Sabine Lautenschläger, Vice President of the Deutche Bundesbank, points out that when there is a crisis in a national banking system, “it may be necessary to use the money of taxpayers in other countries.”  This is moral hazard carried to the point of naked freeloading.  “I exist, and you have money.  Therefore, you owe me.”

The matter is emphasized by the current bailout of Spanish banks, long resisted by Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, and the market’s recognition of the failure of such a thing: following news of the loaning of €100 billion ($126 billion) to Spain’s larger banks, the financial markets pushed Spanish borrowing costs to recent year record levels.  And of course the markets reacted badly: they correctly recognized this as simply adding debt to a debtor who has said he’s unable to repay existing debt.  Rajoy was correct to resist the bailout for as long as he did, and he was wrong finally to accept it.  He has only increased the danger to Spain.

That’s the moral hazard; now we get the Chicken Little act: “senior officials” in Berlin are openly discussing the possibility that the euro could fall apart, and Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, insists with a straight face that there remain only “three months” to save the euro.  A senior euro-zone diplomat in Brussels bleats, “If Germany doesn’t make a move, Europe is dead.”

There’s more: Germany already has billions of euros invested in preserving the currency zone says Spiegel.  And so they must pony up yet more, or lose the sunk investment.  This, though, is the amateur investor’s error: being married to a failed position.  Insisting on holding to that failure, even adding money to it, in the hope that the investment will, eventually, finally, turn around and the losses be recouped is a fool’s hope.  In reality, the losses continue to mount as the failure deepens, and the final bankruptcy is that much more expensive, because the amateur investor will have lost that much more.  The best move for a failed investment is to cut the losses by terminating the investment, painful as that may be.  So it is with the nations’ sovereign debt.  Cut the losses.  They’ve already demonstrated they cannot repay—adding to their debt burden only makes their inevitable bankruptcy that much more disastrous.

Yet the fear of dissolution is both unfounded and misdirected.  After the inhomogeneity of social, political, money purpose imperatives of the euro zone nations, the next greatest risk to the euro is this moral hazard.  Eliminating the moral hazard would strengthen the EU and the euro zone, not destroy it.  Let the bankrupt go bankrupt, stop propping them up with more debt funded with OPM.  Fiscal discipline—as the northern European countries, especially Germany, have demonstrated—is the road back, to the extent there is one, with that inhomogeneity barrier in the way.

Indeed, that inhomogeneity demonstrates another aspect of the crisis.  Each PIIGS’ problem and situation is unique, beyond the general theme of irresponsible spending and borrowing.  Each solution must be unique, beyond the general theme of no bailouts from outside.

As Churchill once said, these folks are killing the wrong pig.

But It’s the Wrong Problem

Ron Williams, a former Chairman and CEO of Aetna Inc, in a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed, described his evolution toward opposition of Obamacare’s Individual Mandate, which he had supported initially.  He then offered a couple of alternatives to the Individual Mandate; however his alternative solutions are as erroneous as the Individual Mandate is an overreach of Federal government power.  The reason for his error is that he’s pursuing the wrong problem.

Williams says

As a society, we have a moral obligation to ensure everyone has access to affordable health care.  We must find a way to cover those who are no longer healthy but need care.

No.  There is a difference between health care and health insurance; the two are conflated far too often—sometimes cynically and deliberately, sometimes out of genuine ignorance, and sometimes just out of careless thought.  People who are no longer healthy do not need health insurance; they need health care.  We must find a way to help them to get that care.  Moreover, this social obligation is not at all a government obligation, or even a legitimate government task.  Society is not our government—it is us.

When government butts out of our affairs, when it leaves our money in our hands, it becomes a lot easier for us as individuals to see to our obligations ourselves, and in our own way.  Then we can do more of what we need to do—directly, or through our local communities, or through our churches and private charities, or some combination of these.  Government legitimately comes into play only as a last resort, not the first resort—or only resort, as some would have it—and the Federal government must be last among these.  New York’s tax funds, to the extent they’re involved at all, should go first to New York’s poor, not first into a general national pile from which, for instance, Illinois or California might draw ad lib.

On top of that, competitively sold health insurances policies, sold nationwide rather than within 50 different state jurisdictions, would be a powerful market solution that would potentiate our ability as a society to act on this imperative.

Whither Responsibility?

The financial crisis threatening the Spanish government deepened Thursday as its borrowing costs hit a new euro-era high, touching levels that previously forced other euro-zone countries to seek sovereign debt bailouts.

So writes Jonathan House in a recent Wall Street Journal article.  Emese Bartha echoed the sentiments in her own WSJ article.

The Italian government’s borrowing costs soared at a bond auction Thursday, a development that will make it more difficult for Prime Minister Mario Monti to avoid having to seek financial help from other euro-zone members.

And just what are these nose-bleed borrowing costs that send whole nations scurrying for OPM?  They’re in the range of 6.0%-7.5% interest rates.  The Spanish 10-year bond, for instance, now runs for 6.96%, “a new euro-era record,” while the Italian 10-year bond goes for 6.23%.

What were the interest rates in another one-among-twenty or so nations (which august club includes these nations of the EU), the US at  the end of the Carter/beginning of the Reagan era?  In 1980, the US 10-year bond rate peaked at 12.84%; in 1981, it got as high as 15.32%.  Our 10-year bond rates had been above 6.96% since early 1974, and they didn’t fall below that level again until mid-1992.

Who bailed us out when we had such trouble?  We did.  We handled our own problems.

But there was a sense of responsibility in those days.  Today, it’s all OPM, and that’s a bottomless piggy bank from which every nation should be able to draw.