Category Archives: markets

Some Empirically Determined Pipeline Benefits

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A study prepared by the SMU/Cox’ Maguire Energy Institute for the Consumer Energy Alliance has some interesting data from the Keystone XL leg that connects Cushing, OK, with Nederland, TX (built because it’s a purely domestic leg and so did not require President Barack Obama’s personal approval). The figure below presents a map of the pipeline and some proposed adjuncts to it. The Gulf Coast Project is the section of the Keystone XL pipeline project that connects the two towns, and it was open for business last January, so the empirical data are current.Keystone-System-Map

Here are some of the short-term benefits of the project’s work and a couple of longer term benefits:

  • $2.3 billion in private-sector investment
  • 11 million+ hours of labor completed by 4,844 American workers
  • 50+ contracts with US manufacturers and companies that built the pipeline and associated equipment, spread across the country: Arkansas, California, Georgia, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Texas
  • manufacture of 485+ miles of high-strength, advanced oil pipeline (36-inch diameter) and associated equipment: thousands of pieces of equipment used to build transformers, meters, electric motors, cabling and electrical equipment; piping assembling and structural steel for supports; etc
  • 2.25 million barrels of new oil storage capacity at Cushing
  • 6 modern pump stations

Some broader results of the pipeline:

  • pumped $3.6 billion into the Texas economy, $2.1 billion into the Oklahoma economy
  • boosted local tax revenues by millions of dollars
  • Prague, OK: “doubled our city sales tax receipts”
  • full RV parks from the construction effort contributed as much as $8,000 a month in electricity fees alone to the municipal utility
  • tax revenue available—and used—to improve education, local infrastructure, and public services
  • Local restaurants, hotels, and businesses experience a significant boos

This table summarizes the overall economic impact of the project:

  Oklahoma Pipeline Impacts Texas Pipeline Impacts
Total Economic Activity $2,143,364,856 $3,638,561,905
Labor Income $1,041,174,418 $1,696,054,834
Employment (person years) 15,852 26,924
Total Taxes $72,384,852 $144,992,343
Indirect Business Taxes $50,339,639 $112,533,584
Direct Business Taxes $22,045,213 $32,458,759

Many will argue that most of these effects will disappear in a few years, even as soon as the pipeline builders leave. Since the results are temporary, why bother, especially given the risks of an oil pipeline? Leaving aside the fact that pipelines are safer than trains for transporting oil and natural gas, ask the folks who’ve gotten these “temporary” fiscal results whether they think any of it was “worth it.”

Status of Obamacare Six Months In

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The preliminary results are not promising. And unsurprising.

Among those health-law marketplace enrollees who have seen a doctor or other health-care provider in the first quarter of this year, around 27% have significant health issues such as diabetes, psychiatric conditions, asthma, heart problems or cancer, the data show. That is sharply higher than the rate of 16% for last year’s individual-consumer market over the same time frame, according to the data[.]

It is also more than double the rate among people who held on to their existing individual policies; among those enrollees, the rate was 12%.

This was well understood and predicted from the jump by those (not only on the right) who viewed the matter objectively rather than through the lens of must-pass because it’s the Progressive thing to do.

Look for sharply higher premiums this summer and fall.

In Which Russia Creates an Opportunity

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Russia on Monday cut gas supplies to Ukraine as a payment deadline passed and negotiators failed to reach a deal on gas prices and unpaid bills amid continued fighting in eastern Ukraine.

Ukraine’s Naftogaz company head Andriy Kobolev said Russia had cut the supply of gas to Ukraine, but that Ukraine can manage without Russian gas until December.

There’s no reason at all we can’t fill this newly created market with American natural gas, even if it will take longer than next December to get the delivery chain up and running.

By extension and demonstration, this also creates a market opportunity to sell American natural gas throughout Europe. Even with a seaborne “pipeline,” we can deliver at a lower price than Russia can.

All we need is an administration willing to take advantage of the opportunity.

Our Economic Future

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James Pethokoukis, at AEIdeas, has some thoughts. Oddly, so do I.

Pethokoukis first. He paraphrases Binyamin Appelbaum in New York Times:

…economist accept slower growth is partly the result of long-term trends…. [Y]ou have (a) the demographically-driven decline in labor force participation and (b) an apparent productivity slowdown starting in the mid-2000s as the pace of technological innovation and diffusion has slowed.

But these two are easily corrected. The “demographically-driven decline in labor force participation” is largely, if not primarily, the retirement of us Baby Boomers without associated replacement from births into existing and new families, much less an increase in that rate. (The long-term departure from the labor force by those who’ve given up finding work in this economy is a separate matter that policy corrections will resolve.)

The US, though, always has relied on high immigration rates, as well as yesterday’s higher birth rates, for our supply of workers at all levels of a company from the janitor/mailroom clerk (no dating me here…) to the President/CEO/Bossman. We don’t have high immigration rates today, so we’re not getting the influx into our labor force that we need. The illegal entry rates don’t make up for much of that at all, and the illegality of their entry serves only to hold them back from full contribution. That dearth is only exacerbated by our lower birth rates; it’s not caused by it.

The productivity slowdown and tech innovation rate is a function of the lack of new ideas, new approaches to old problems, creative approaches to new problems, etc from an entrenched population that’s used to doing things in the business world in a certain way (and that staidness is a fact of human nature). Here, too, immigration has played a major role in our economic vibrancy. Immigrants bring those new ideas, new approaches, new etc. And immigrants start new businesses—become those CEOs/Presidents/Bossmen—all out of proportion to their numbers.

All of which suggests a solution to that “slower growth” bit.

“Green” Energy Loans Have Consequences

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Fisker Automotive—the US electric car company that failed to repay roughly $139 million in federal loans [out of an original loan total of $192 million] before going bankrupt—is now owned by a Chinese company eager to unleash its cut-rate acquisition on the American auto industry.

The company’s assets were acquired earlier this year by China’s biggest auto parts supplier, Wanxiang Group, for $149.2 million in a US bankruptcy auction.

And

Wanxiang acquired A123 Systems [Fisker’s battery supplier] in a 2012 bankruptcy sale, after the company failed to repay millions to the same federal loan program that helped Fisker.

And

[Wanxiang] plans to produce the vehicles in Finland

Despite that wonderful record—which includes two failures in its five loans before the program was suspended—DoE intends to restart the Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Loan Program that was responsible for those losses. But it’s all good:

The department said it revised the application processes for the Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Loan Program to speed up reviews, and is reaching out to manufacturers of auto parts and components to participate.

Yet this will allow for even more slip-shod DoE “vetting.” And now they’re actively pushing more loans? See here for how well suited the Federal government is for managing business programs.

And never mind that the Obama administration’s DoE “green” energy loan program is such a success that that American electric car company that defaulted (some might say welched) on a DoE energy loan is now a People’s Republic of China electric car company.

Sort of like the bailout of a couple of failed American car companies was so successful that one of them is now an Italian car company.