Category Archives: markets

The Fed and Uncertainty

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In a Fox Business piece concerning the impact of future Federal Reserve Bank interest rate hikes on the stock market, this remark stands out for me.

[C]onventional wisdom holds that the more skillful Fed officials are at telegraphing their upcoming rate hikes, the less volatile markets will be once those hikes are announced.

That’s true enough as far as it goes, but the interesting bit is that the more skillful Fed officials are at telegraphing phrase.

Ordinarily, there’s no skill at all involved in making a simple, straightforward statement. One such could be we’ll raise interest rates by these increments, according to this schedule. Those milestones will be adjusted in this way by these factors that we will observe in real time.

That sort of clear, direct statement only takes skill when the speaker is a member of an organization which has institutionalized obfuscation.

The Bernie Sanders Economy

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Lots of folks say Bernie Sanders, Democratic Presidential candidate and Socialist Senator from Vermont, wants the American economy to look like social democrat Europe.

Wrong. Look closer to home for the logical outcome of Sanders’ economic policies. Here’s Puerto Rico‘s “economy:”

Government debt has increased by two thirds since 2006…and exceeds 100% of gross national product. … The sales tax increased to 11.5% this year from 7% and next year will turn into a value-added tax. Since 2013 the tax on petroleum—the island’s primary fuel for generating electricity—has quintupled to $15.50 per barrel.

And

Employment laws, such as mandatory 15 days of paid vacation, and stringent job protections provide disincentives to hire. Generous welfare, housing, food stamp and health benefits discourage work. Nearly half of island residents are on Medicaid. A household can rake in 50% more in government assistance than the take-home monthly minimum wage.

The island’s 12.5% unemployment rate is misleading, coming as it does against a labor force participation rate of 40% [sic].

There’s more—lots more—but this is where President Bernie Sanders will take us, and it’s far enough.

Government’s Gotta Regulate What A Man’s Gotta Do

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It is taking home buyers longer to get a mortgage, which some in the real-estate industry say is the result of new federal rules meant to make mortgage terms easier to understand.

It wasn’t broke, and mortgages were moving as much apace as this Obama Recovery permitted, but it also wasn’t regulated. Government abhors a control vacuum.

Mortgages took an average of 49 days to close in November…the longest closing time since February 2013….

That’s only a three day increase over October, but it’s an entirely unnecessary and a completely government caused delay.

The rules…require lenders to give borrowers final terms of a loan at least three business days before closing to ensure they have time to understand the agreement.

Never mind that consumers already can walk away from any purchase contract, including mortgage contracts, within three days after signing—the “cooling off” period.

Advocates for the changes say they are a common-sense response to the housing crisis, during which it became apparent that many borrowers didn’t understand the ramifications of terms such as teaser rates or growing principal balances.

Of course a Liberal will say it’s common sense to regulate. It couldn’t possibly be common sense to educate instead.

The outcome of this demand to regulate anything and everything is more than just a delay in closing. Sales of existing homes have fallen sharply, 10.5% in November, the first month these wonderful new regulations have been in place, compared to October.

Who Doesn’t Trust the PRC Government?

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Recall late last summer when the People’s Republic of China’s stock market melted down over the PRC government’s interference in currency exchange rates and its subsequent failures to handle the stock market result of that. In a Wall Street Journal article centered on a different matter was this little tidbit [emphasis added].

While China’s main stock index is up 20% since August, it is still down 33% from its June peak. About 15% of Chinese stocks remain suspended from trading, and trading volumes are at one-third of their June levels.

Hmm….

What’s He Afraid Of?

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Chinese President Xi Jinping called for individual countries to have broad authority to regulate the Internet at home, outlining a digital future in which governments could set online standards and challenge the free flow of information and content across borders.

Why is the leadership of the PRC so terrified of the free flow of information, of free speech?

Oh, wait.