Category Archives: foreign policy

Trusting Russia on Ukraine

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The US and Russia, along with NATO and Ukrainian officials, talked about setting up a peace-keeping force to get and maintain peace in Ukraine.  Interestingly, that force would be placed along the front that separates the Russian and rebel-held eastern Ukraine from the rest of the nation instead of being on the Ukrainian border with Russia.  The proposal also carefully ignored the status of Russia-occupied Crimea.  A US counterproposal, offered by the US’ chief negotiator, Kurt Volker, suggested that the force should include, also, that border—not instead of the front—while still ignoring Crimea.

During a panel discussion held by a number of former US diplomats that included Mike McFaul, former US ambassador to Russia and Volker, McFaul asked Volker

Tell us why the factors are different in this particular case that would lead to a different scenario than a permanent division that we have in Cyprus[.]

Volker’s answer?

Mr Volker said the peacekeeping plan would only work if both the Ukrainians and Russians want peace.

Who’s definition of “peace?”  Russia doesn’t want peace except on occupation of eastern Ukraine, retention of Crimea, and control over rump Ukraine.

Volker is a rabbit remonstrating with a Russian bear. Volker thinks the Russian ways are wrong. Russia thinks Volker is lunch. He’s embarrassing us.

Diplomacy and Northern Korea

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The Wall Street Journal‘s Gerald Seib had a piece extolling the virtues of the Republic of Korea’s willingness to engage in formal, summit-level diplomacy with northern Korea coupled with President Donald Trump’s sub rosa willingness to talk.

There were, though, some serious misunderstandings in the article.  Here are a couple:

[T]here is no way to know for sure what the North Koreans are willing to give up without testing their intentions.

Apparently Seib has been doing a Rip van Winkle impression. For the last 25 years, the northern Korean government has said they’ll never give up their nuclear weapons goals.  We know for sure that what northern Korea is willing to give up is nothing.

If the North Koreans are talking rather than testing, that alone would be a positive development.

It would be, but this is incredibly naive. The northern Koreans are fully capable of talking and testing at the same time, and there’s no reason to believe they’d not continue that easy multitasking now, just as they’ve already been doing for those 25 years.

Talk, certainly. But do it in clear recognition of the fact that northern Korea will continue to test and that talking will not slow, much less halt or reverse, its drive to accumulate deliverable (and marketable) nuclear warheads.

We should keep the economic and military pressure on and increasing.  We can multitask, too.

Costs, and Costs

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The fight to drive the Daesh out of Iraq (while killing too few of them IMNSHO) has caused more than $45 billion in infrastructure damage to Iraq.

That’s roughly half the cost of the damage a couple of hurricanes did in Texas and Florida last year, an even smaller ratio when Puerto Rico is figured in.  But it’s a lot of damage for a nation like Iraq.

What might that imply, besides the relative wealth of the two nations?

One is the relative dependence we have on our more highly developed, and so expensive, infrastructure compared to Iraq.  Iraq is scraping by with that level of damage and already beginning to recover.

If we suffered the same relative level of damage to our infrastructure, particularly our electric grid, how well would we fare?

The Secretary of State for Defense Is Correct

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Two Daesh terrorists who grew up in Great Britain have been captured.

Defense Secretary Gavin Williamson told the Sun newspaper on Saturday: “I don’t think they should ever set foot in this country again.”

Williamson is absolutely correct.  Barbarians like this, who think terrorism is the way to go, should be allowed freely to leave to join their barbaric gangs.

And then they should be barred from returning.  Forever.