Category Archives: foreign policy

Maybe this will Prod

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Maybe it’ll prod us both. The People’s Republic of China has cut off export of rare earths and the magnets made from them to Japan over Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recent commentary about Japan’s strengthening resolve to assist the Republic of China in the event of a PRC invasion.

China has begun choking off exports of rare earths and rare-earth magnets to Japan, a potential blow to Japanese companies that use them to produce components for global chip makers, car companies and defense firms.

It really is getting time, and urgently so, for Japan to pull all of its supply chains out of the PRC. Doing so would eliminate nearly all of the PRC’s economic leverage over Japan short of going to war over the sea lines of communication on which Japan depends.

The PRC’s move also should be a serious prod for us to get off the dime and move all of our supply chains out of the PRC. It’s time we proofed ourselves against PRC economic pressure, along with Japan. Nearly half of our economy’s imports flow through portions of those same SLOCs to our west coast.

Violations of International Law

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The Wall Street Journal‘s editors rightly ask the question.

Has international law become a tyrant’s best friend? Democrats and foreign leaders are claiming that President Trump’s arrest of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro is illegal—at least as international law is interpreted by the reigning complex of professors, NGOs, and multilateral bureaucrats.

Never mind that none of these nay-sayers—not a single one—are willing to cite the “international law” that the US violated in the arrest of Maduro and his wife. The closest they come is the single UN law, which as no applicability to the current situation, as the editors explain in words so plain that even Leftists should be able to understand them.

I expect such cynicism and dishonest out of our enemies and our fair weather friends and acquaintances. But to get this drivel from American politicians—in the main, Progressive-Democratic Party politicians—is decidedly shameful. This sub rosa hatred of America by those who claim to be our own should be remembered at the ballot box this fall.

A Quick Thought on Tariffs

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The lede sets the table for my thought, even while mixing similes or metaphors or somethings.

The highest tariffs in almost a century haven’t caused the massive surge in inflation many economists feared. But that shouldn’t have come as a surprise, according to two new studies.

Begin with the understanding that today’s economy, both domestic and as we interact and intertwine with other nations’ economies, is far more complex than it was during the 19th and early 20th century heydays of tariffs.

Within that understanding, we don’t know the lags, if any, between tariff implementation and domestic price increases. That’s true whether the tariffs are implemented in specific economic areas or across the domestic board. Nor do we understand the mechanisms by which tariffs on foreign goods and services have their effect on domestic goods and services or on our economy in general. Nor do we understand the pathways by which those mechanisms might work their effects.

Each of these must be determined empirically, and that takes time. Presently, we’re in a nation-wide experiment that will provide the data that will let us understand each of these unknowns.

For how long must this experiment run before we can say reasonably definitively that tariffs are not having more than a minor effect on prices? That’s also unknown, but I suspect an outer bound on that is a couple of years.

Disruptive in the near term the Trump tariffs—or at least his rhetoric about them—might seem to be, it’s much to soon to assess their disruptiveness or lack in the intermediate and longer terms.

Time to Respond…

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…more forcefully and farther than what the People’s Republic of China has done.

China said it banned the export to Japan of goods with potential military uses, intensifying Beijing’s retaliation against Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi over remarks she made about Taiwan.
The export ban takes effect immediately, China’s Ministry of Commerce said Tuesday.

It’s time for Japan, and the US in support of Japan, to answer the PRC’s escalation with a much sharper escalation of their, and our, own.

Japan—Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and the Diet—must state unequivocally that it will support the Republic of China in the event of a PRC invasion attempt. Japan also must make concrete moves toward developing its own nuclear weapons. The nation, given its geographic location, doesn’t need anything more esoteric than intermediate range missiles along with a small constellation of surveillance satellites. Japan also must begin taking overt defensive measures regarding its islands in the East China Sea.

Economically, Japan must begin serious and rapid disengagement of its business activities with and within the PRC.

The US must announce that we will support the RoC in the event of a PRC invasion attempt, and we must step up arms deliveries to both the RoC and to Japan. We need also to be much more forceful in defending the international waters and sea lanes of commerce in the South China Sea as well as moving to restrict the PLAN’s and PLAAF’s movements in that region.

The US must also get serious about severing our economic ties with the PRC.

There must be no petty tit-for-tat responses, and there must be no non-response. The question is whether Japan’s government men and women, and ours, have the stomach for facing down the men and women of the PRC government.

Cutting off doing business with and within the PRC will be expensive and disruptive, but it won’t be nearly as much so as acceding to PRC demands—which will only increase were Japan or us to back down repeatedly and further.

A Useful Test

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In their Wall Street Journal Tuesday op-ed, Michael O’Hanlon and Marta Wosinska, Brookings Institution Senior Fellows, pointed out that shotgunning moves (vis., universal tariffs on everything a target nation or group of nations exports to us and broadly barring exports to those same targets) as a means of altering the several links to the supply chains our economy needs to make the goods we need along with altering those links our economy wants to make the things we want. They then offered a three part test to better target those supply chain links that are most important and most time critical to us and our security.

  • First, a supply chain warrants special focus when its disruption would quickly threaten lives, core defense missions, or essential economic functions.
  • Second, when substitutes or workarounds can’t be instituted in time to mitigate the disruption.
  • Third, when surge capacity can’t be built on a reasonable timeline.

This approach, as they emphasize, acknowledges that developing resilience is costly and helps ensure that scarce capital goes to the most vital choke points. In fine, it targets links for better allocation of our non-tree-sprouting spending money

This is a good test, and it’s applicable in another way than purely domestically. It needs to be applied in reverse, also. What are the analogous critical choke points in our enemies’ supply chains? Applying the test to those would let us better target our enemies’ ability to wage and sustain war against us, our friends, and our allies.