Likelihoods

Scott Gottlieb and Yuval Levin had an uproar in their knickers in their Sunday op-ed in The Wall Street Journal.

The two center their piece on the failure of President Donald Trump, et al., to take precautions satisfactory to Gottlieb and Levin to minimize their chances of getting the Wuhan Virus. The money quote in their piece, though—from my perspective—is this:

For months, some of them condoned nonchalance about the virus, mocking precautions such as wearing masks as marks of weakness and dismissing public-health concerns as overwrought.

Disregard the distorted characterization of the behavior of “some of them;” what Gottlieb and Levin ignore of those “months” is the empirical demonstration of the low likelihood of getting a Wuhan Virus infection serious enough to be noticed, even in a high-contact, high traffic, high-interaction environment.

On second thought, accept their mischaracterization: that nonchalance emphasizes the low likelihood.

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