A Post-Super Tuesday Thought

With Progressive-Democratic Party Primaries and Caucuses mostly complete (California is still…counting…its ballots, and I’m ignoring Iowa’s pseudo-caucus entirely) through last Tuesday, some results have become more or less apparent.

Joe Biden has won or leads in (as I write, Maine remains too close to call) 11 States, and Senator Bernie Sanders (I, VT) has won 5 States.  There’s nothing to be gleaned from any geographical spread in these States; there remain 34, scattered about the countryside, in which Party contests are yet to be held.

What’s interesting in these results is the margin of victory by each candidate.

Biden’s margin of victory averaged 17%, and Sanders’ averaged 18%. (Fun with statistics: taking out margins less than double-digits, and Biden’s margin of victory jumps to 25%, while Sanders’ moves to 20%—his lone single-digit margin was 9%.)

Seventeen and eighteen per cent, and that’s with five or six serious candidates on the ballots. I include Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (D, HI), who’s serious and articulate in her positions, even though she has no chance at the nomination.  Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar (D, MN) got serious numbers of votes even though they folded to pressure from the Party Elites and quit in favor of endorsing Biden: their quitting came too late to be removed from any Super Tuesday ballots. What if Biden and Sanders had been going head-to-head with their votes not diluted by these other candidates?

Biden’s and Sanders’ margins of victory indicate that the Progressive-Democratic Party is every bit as bitterly divided on ideological grounds as Party has made our nation.

Look now for a brokered convention, and watch carefully the antics and shenanigans Michael Bloomberg pulls in Milwaukee. He’s dropped out and endorsed Biden, and he still has tons of uncommitted cash money for his horse-trading and deal-making. Is he now the Veep candidate?

Note:  My claims are based on votes cast, not delegate counts, and they’re taken from Fox News’ estimates as of Wednesday morning.  While the vote totals are incomplete as I write, they’re very nearly so, and so they’re highly indicative of the final outcome for these States.

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