The New Tax Law and Bankruptcy

The Wall Street Journal is quick to point out how the tax reform bill passed last December does little to help failing businesses.

The new tax law is a boon to most US businesses, but it will make life harder for one type of company: those that are struggling financially or at risk of filing for bankruptcy.

The new tax law was never intended to help failing businesses, though, it was designed to help the rest of us individuals and our businesses—and to help those who are failing do better next time.

The law eliminated a provision that gave money-losing companies a cash infusion in the form of a retroactive federal tax refund by applying current losses to past tax bills. Experts say these tax breaks, called net operating loss carry-backs, gave companies access to money at a critical time….

No, the provision helped current businesses paper over bad decisions and outright failure by letting them rewrite their history; there’s nothing that helped failing businesses do better in future.

The provision, in fact, was written in the aftermath of WWI, ostensibly to help our economy’s manufacturing sector.  On the contrary, though, the provision was enacted to bail out from Woodrow Wilson’s attempts to nationalize significant fractions of our industrial sector and to attempt recovery from Wilson’s drastically inflationary policies.  Any policy enacted for bad reasons always will fail in the end.

“It doesn’t fix the business, but it fixed the balance sheet,” she [Bankruptcy lawyer Cathy Hershcopf] said of the tax benefits.

Indeed.

Market Drops

The Dow Jones 30 Industrials dropped nearly 1200 points on Monday, a numerically large drop.  But what does it mean, really?  We’ve had a steady, and over the last few months steadily steep, rise in the Dow.  The simple fact is, investors are taking profits off the table.  The proximate cause—the excuse—is fear of inflation triggered (if I can use that term) by good employment numbers and rising wages (finally).  The underlying economy is sound, the tax bill just passed is making our economy more so. To put things in perspective, here are two graphs of the Dow consisting of daily data since 1 January 1980 through 2 February 2018.  The data are unadjusted, meaning they are just the daily close, without dividends figured in.

This graph is of the raw data through the 5th.  Notice that Monday almost doesn’t show up in the grand scheme of things.

This graph uses the same data and puts them onto a log10 scale, which has the advantage of smoothing out exponential growths.  Over the last 37 years, none of the big drops—or rises—show up very well.  The Panic of 2008 only barely appears, and the dot-com bust is just a small dip.  The Dow has been rising steadily, with the short-term burbles put into perspective.

This is a buying opportunity claims this layman investor.