The Current State

…of our economic “recovery.”

Here are some numbers, from The Walls Street Journal.

  • GDP grew at a (preliminary) 2% rate in the third quarter…
  • That rate means that growth for the first nine months of this year was only 1.7%
    • Slower than last year’s 1.8%
    • Which was slower than the year before’s 2.4%
  • Consumer spending provided most of the third-quarter lift…but consumers can’t continue if the overall economy doesn’t grow fast enough to raise incomes faster
  • The other big third-quarter growth driver was Federal government spending
    • Rose 9.6%
    • Overall government outlays rose 3.7% and accounted for about 0.7 percentage points of that 2% GDP increase
  • Economist David Malpass calculates that growth in private output was closer to 1.3%. The private economy isn’t “doing fine…
    • Non-housing related investment contracted by 1.3%.
    • But business investment is a leading indicator of future job and wage growth.


  • [T]he typical growth rate at this stage of the previous nine recoveries (13 quarters) averaged 16.8%
  • The rate for this recovery is 7.2%.
  • That’s about $1.2 trillion in foregone output.

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