Farm Subsidies and False Premises

Negotiators [on a proposed milk price support bill] are…working out how farm subsidies should be restructured in the absence of a traditional subsidy called direct payments, which are paid to farmer regardless of crop price or crop yield.  Both chambers’ bills would eliminate this $5 billion annual subsidy in response to critics who say it pays farmers not to farm.  But they have argued over how to replace those payments, with major farm groups squabbling over whether subsidies should kick in based on crop prices or farmer revenue, and how to count the acreage on which the subsidies are based.

Unfortunately for our pocketbooks, those negotiators are operating from a false premise: that the subsidies need to be revised in any way.  The only ones who benefit from these subsidies in any large way are the large agribusinesses and the “farm state” politicians supported by them.  Mom and pop farms?  Not so much.  On top of that, though, us food eaters are materially harmed by the subsidies through the artificially inflated prices we have to pay for food that those subsidies create.  And the poor among us are harmed the most by those inflated prices.  Additionally, us taxpayers are harmed a second—and third—time by having to pay for those subsidies that are driving our prices up and by having to pay for the food stamps that are used to mitigate for the poor those artificially inflated prices.

No.  The subsidies need to be done away with: “replace” them altogether through a bill that eliminates all of the farm subsidies, which ding us for $25 billion annually.  That seed then lets the much larger $80 billion/yr food stamp program to be drastically reduced, if not eliminated altogether, since most of those remaining who truly need help would generally be within the resources of their local communities and states.

Another Failure of Modern Liberalism

Illinois has a deeply bankrupt pension system—it’s in the hole by $100 billion: a state is in the hole by $100 billion, not a nation—a pension system that’s the worst off in the country.

Their solution?  A bill just passed that in total is claimed to save $160 billion over 30 years and fully fund the systems by 2044.  That’s a bit over $5 billion a year on that $100 billion arrearage.  And it naively, if not cynically, assumes that future state legislatures won’t change the thing for all of those 30 years.

Some specifics, with my comments: the bill

  • pushes back the retirement age for workers ages 45 and younger, on a sliding scale

Why a scale?  20 years to a nominal retirement at 65 is plenty of time for workers to adjust plans.

  • replaces annual 3% cost-of-living increases for retirees with a system that provides the increases on a portion of benefits, based on seniority

Why freeze the COL?  If there’s to be one, why not tie it to inflation?  Today’s inflation is in the neighborhood of 2%-2.5%. Larger COLs aren’t necessary.

  • gives some workers the option of freezing their pension and starting a 401(k)-style defined contribution plan

Why only some?  Why not move them all to 401(k) type plans?  The private sector recognized the usefulness of such plans decades ago, and they make the workers more responsible for their own futures, instead of having government usurp that responsibility.

  • has workers contributing 1% less to their own retirement

So workers will become even less responsible for their own futures than they were.  Oh, wait—those plans….

Don’t expect this to have any effect on Illinois’ failed system other than to allow it to get worse.

A Thought on some Taxes

Romain Hatchuel, Square Advisors LLC Managing Partner, has an excellent op-ed in The Wall Street Journal, but I want to comment on one small part of it:

In his November investment commentary for bond giant Pimco, [billionaire investor Bill] Gross asks the “Scrooge McDucks of the world” to accept higher personal income taxes and to stop expecting capital to be taxed at lower rates than labor.

Gross is right, partly.  The use of tax code to effect social engineering does not achieve the goals of the “engineering” effort, but it does effect coarse distortions in a free market.  These distortions range from slanting business decisions toward (or away from) debt according to the differential ways in which debt interest and capital gains are taxed; they impact individual investment decisions according to the way debt interest, capital gains, or dividends are taxed; they even distort the price (and so availability) of housing according to the way in which mortgage debt interest is taxed.

Capital should not be taxed at a lower rate than labor.  Businesses should not be assessed tax at all—the ones who actually pay those business taxes, after all, are the final customers—us—as that tax bill-as-cost-center gets figured into the prices charged.  Nor should there be deductions, credits, etc on individual income, with or without variation according to the source or amount of income.

Contra Gross, though, a single, low flat rate that every individual pays on the total of that individual’s income would achieve a market neutral tax that would impose the minimum of distortion on the market even from the tax’s existence (a 10% rate that everyone with an income pays even would represent a significant increase in total revenue to the Federal government).

Wealth Redistribution, Industrial Style

…additionally, with industry as helpless victim, a taxpayer bailout.  It’s an Obama two-fer: spreading the money around and bailing out an industry.

Built in to Obamacare, it turns out, is another form of wealth redistribution.  In order to guarantee every insurance company a profit (as opposed to, more properly, engendering an economic environment within which every insurance company has an opportunity for a profit), Obamacare has embedded in it something called a “risk corridor.”  Here’s Power Line‘s description of what this corridor is:

The risk corridor program, by its design, is basically a risk sharing program among insurance companies, administered by the government.  Companies that make out better than expected provide funds for companies that make out worse.

Wealth redistribution on an industrial scale.  But wait—there’s more:

If essentially all insurance companies make out much worse than expected, as may well be the case, the risk corridor concept won’t work as intended.  It will work only if reinvented to force taxpayers to subsidize the industry.

The Obama bailout.

Two Government Stimulus Plans

…from a redneck Conservative18th Century Liberal, yet.  The idea from this post came from an op-ed by Martin Feldstein in a week ago Monday’s Wall Street Journal.  He wrote, in part,

A successful growth and employment strategy would combine substantial reductions in the relative size of the future national debt with immediate permanent tax-rate cuts and a multiyear program of infrastructure spending.

However, I have a slightly different couple of takes on the path to recovering our economy.

I have a dim view of government spending, based on the ultimate source of the money and the inherent inefficiencies of government spending.  Many others have gone into this, also; I’ll not belabor them here.  Instead, and in keeping with the spirit of those objections, I’m proposing something of the following.

President Barack Obama’s 2009 “Stimulus” Bill was $830 billion over and above the “ordinary” budget already passed during Bush the Younger’s last year.  The 2010 budget deficit was $1.17 trillion as Obama continued profligate spending as “stimulus.”  Or would have been had there been a budget passed.  Given the deficits of the preceding years, let’s take $830 billion of that projected/planned deficit as “excess” deficit whose sole purpose was to be stimulative.  For those two years, then, the spending targeted at stimulus totaled $1,660 billion.

The Federal tax rebates of 2008 went as high as $600 for a single person whose adjusted income was under $75k, and $1,200 for a couple whose income was under $150k.  If the $1,660 billion were divided evenly among households regardless of income (just to keep the arithmetic simple in this post), then those billions could have been used to pay to each household a rebate of…$14.

The rebates didn’t work in 2008 because they were temporary.  Instead of spending the money—the rebates’ purpose being to stimulate consumption—most Americans saved the money against an uncertain future or they used it to pay down existing debt.  Both of these were very important to the long-term health of the economy, but they didn’t do anything for near-term stimulation.  Even so, the money was used far more efficiently than the government could have—that saving and debt reduction—vs the government’s inherent friction of many bureaucratic middlemen absorbing much of that money.

But instead of rebating those $1,660 billion—and the $14 likely would have been spent; it’s about a beer and a pizza, and so stimulative, at least for the pizza house and its employees—government just ran up the debt going for shovel ready jobs that weren’t shovel ready after all.

That brings me to my preferred option.  As Feldstein noted in that op-ed,

The only way to reduce future deficits without weakening incentives and growth is by cutting future government spending.

I propose, though, more government “spending,”* albeit of a less traditional form: a reduction in our tax rates (with a commensurate reduction in “normal” spending forms to pay for this alternative spending program).  In 2010, the Federal government collected right at $1,600 billion in total tax revenue from all sources.

Hmm….

Maybe the Feds should spend all that “excess” deficit in the form of a permanent tax rate cut—not the simplistic one of 100% to absorb all of that “excess;” the government needs some funds for the things it’s legitimately required to do: national defense, Federal law enforcement (we have too many Federal laws, but that’s a different story), regulation of interstate commerce (and not intrastate commerce, but again, that’s a different story), and so on.  Let’s go for a permanent reduction in our tax rates of 10% across the board.

With a permanent cut, instead of a temporary rebate, folks not only will save and pay down their debt, they’ll spend more, too.  They’ll also spend far more efficiently than government because there’s no middleman involved, and they’ll be spending on what they want and/or need, and not taking what the government thinks they should want and/or need.

Senator Mike Lee’s (R, UT) tax proposal makes an interesting start in this direction.

 

*In quotes because, of course, it’s not the government’s money; it’s ours, and so the government leaving what’s ours in our hands isn’t actually government spending.